The Fed just cut rates again, and markets reacted fast. 🎯Risk assets spiked at first... then cooled off just as quickly. $BTC even dipped below $90K as traders "sold the news"Here's what actually happened and what comes next 👇🧵 ...

Market Outlook - Gold and silver are viewed as risk assets, with gold offering more downside protection [1] - Select commodities flowing into data centers are interesting due to increasing demand and less overownership compared to AI capex stocks [1] - Stock indices are expected to continue melting up, with thematic work focusing on the most interesting sectors in H1'26 [2] - Liquidity re-expansion is anticipated to lead to more true trending markets after a period of choppy rotational activity [2] - The buyer base for BTC and alts has been weakened financially and psychologically, potentially requiring a reset period [3] Cryptocurrency Analysis - There are real reasons for BTC and alts to increase in value, potentially benefiting the most from liquidity re-expansion [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses significant developments in U.S. and global markets, highlighting key economic indicators and trends affecting investment opportunities and risks [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation rates have shown a decrease, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by only 3.7% year-over-year, down from previous levels [1] - Unemployment rates remain low, with the latest figures indicating a steady rate of 3.5%, suggesting a robust labor market [1] - Global supply chain disruptions are easing, contributing to improved manufacturing output and lower costs for businesses [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Stock markets have experienced volatility, with major indices fluctuating due to mixed earnings reports from key companies [1] - Interest rates are expected to remain stable in the near term, as the Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Investment in technology and renewable energy sectors is on the rise, driven by increased demand for sustainable solutions and innovation [1]

Core Insights - Risk assets have faced significant pressure since October, with the S&P 500 only about 3% from its all-time high, while many stocks have declined more substantially, particularly speculative names which have dropped by 40-50% [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is currently near its all-time high, indicating some resilience in the broader market despite the pressure on risk assets [1] - Speculative stocks have experienced severe declines, with losses ranging from 40% to 50%, highlighting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The investment approach discussed focuses on long-term strategies, emphasizing low-risk ETFs and CEFs as preferred investment vehicles [1]

Core Viewpoint - US equities experienced a significant decline as investors moved away from major technology stocks, leading to a deterioration in sentiment across risk assets [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 466 points, representing a 1% decrease [1] - The S&P 500 also decreased by 1%, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses, which is the longest downturn since August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing a downturn as investors are moving away from risk assets while awaiting significant earnings reports and economic data [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 125 points, or 0.3%, with similar declines observed in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, both down 0.3% [2]. - The three major indexes recorded a decline on Monday, marking the largest three-day drop for the Dow and S&P since mid-April [2].

Core Insights - Bitcoin has entered a deeper bear market, with a 22% decline from its early October peak, reaching a six-month low of $94,700 [1][4] - The sell-off is driven by a broader decline in risk assets, particularly tech stocks, amid investor concerns over high valuations [1][4] - Significant outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs reached $866.7 million, the highest since early August [2] - Bitcoin's liquidity has decreased, with market depth falling from approximately $766 million to $535.2 million, leading to increased price volatility [2] - Speculation regarding Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, offloading its holdings contributed to the sell-off, although the company's founder denied these rumors [3][4] - The net asset value premium of Strategy has dipped below 1x, indicating a temporary loss of premium over its Bitcoin holdings [4] Market Sentiment - The current state of Bitcoin reflects broader market sentiment towards risk assets, with fears of high valuations and decreased liquidity exacerbating the sell-off [4][5] - The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies is highlighted, emphasizing the impact of market sentiment on their value [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price has dropped 6.55% in the last 24 hours, currently trading just above $95,000, marking its lowest point since May [1] - Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost approximately 20% of its value, driven by uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a selloff in tech and crypto stocks [2][6] Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its decision on interest rates next month, with three potential outcomes: increase, hold, or cut rates [3] - Recent market sentiment has shifted, with only a 50% chance perceived for a rate cut in December, down from a 90% chance earlier in November, contributing to Bitcoin's decline [6] Tech and Crypto Stock Selloff - Bitcoin is categorized as a risk asset, and its price volatility is mirrored in the performance of tech stocks, particularly those in the AI sector [7] - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, which may lead investors to withdraw from cryptocurrencies in favor of safer investments [8] Bitcoin's Yearly Performance - Bitcoin started the year above $94,000, peaked at over $126,000 in October, but has since faced a steady decline, currently up only about 2.8% for the year [10][12]

Core Insights - Digital asset investment products experienced significant outflows of $1.17 billion last week, marking the second consecutive week of losses due to US economic uncertainty and October volatility [1] - The US market led global outflows with $1.22 billion, reflecting negative sentiment amid concerns over interest rate cuts and potential government shutdowns [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments intensified market fears, leading to a shift away from risk assets, particularly in digital investment products [3] Outflows by Asset - Bitcoin faced the largest withdrawals of $932 million, indicating its sensitivity to US policy changes and investor reactions to economic conditions [6] - Ethereum also saw significant outflows of $438 million, despite previous inflows, suggesting mixed sentiment among institutional investors regarding its short-term outlook [7] - Short Bitcoin ETPs attracted $11.8 million in new funds, the highest since May 2025, reflecting growing concerns about potential headwinds for Bitcoin [7] Regional Sentiment - European markets displayed more optimism, with Germany and Switzerland recording inflows of approximately $91 million, contrasting with the negative sentiment in the US [3][4] - ETP trading volumes remained robust at $43 billion during the week, with a temporary slowdown in outflows due to hopes of averting a government shutdown [4] Notable Trends - Solana distinguished itself with $118 million in inflows, totaling $2.1 billion over nine weeks, indicating rising institutional demand [9]

The Fed just confirmed a 25 bps rate cut and markets are already moving. Some call it the start of a new risk cycle, others say it’s just caution in disguise.Inside CMC Topics, creators broke down what it means for crypto and risk assets 👇1/4 https://t.co/BEvtOe6Dx6 ...