Core Viewpoint - Tesla's current share price is significantly overvalued compared to its fundamental valuation, according to former fund manager George Noble, who argues that the company's ambitious projects do not justify its market valuation [1][2]. Valuation Breakdown - Noble conducted a "sum of the parts valuation" for Tesla, comparing its various segments to competitors. He estimates that the company's total valuation should be around $80 per share, contrasting sharply with its current price of $438.07 per share [2][5]. Robotics Segment - In the robotics sector, Noble compared Tesla's Optimus project to competitors like Boston Dynamics, valued at $5 billion, and Figure AI, valued at $39 billion. He suggests that even a generous valuation for Optimus would only translate to $12 per Tesla share [3]. Robotaxis Business - For the robotaxis segment, Noble referenced Alphabet's Waymo, rumored to be valued at $100 billion. Assigning a similar valuation to Tesla's robotaxis would imply a value of $30 per share [4]. Automotive and Energy Segments - Noble indicated that Tesla's core automotive business is in decline, estimating its worth at $60 billion, or $18 per share. Additionally, he values the energy business at $20 per share [4]. Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Tesla recently lost its position as the world's leading electric vehicle maker to BYD Co. Ltd., marking its second consecutive year of declining sales [5]. Prominent investor Michael Burry has also labeled Tesla as "ridiculously overvalued," highlighting significant declines in vehicle sales projections [6]. Stock Performance - Tesla shares closed at $438.07, down 2.59% on a recent Friday, and are trading at a high forward earnings multiple of 196, compared to the industry average of 17.47 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent production and delivery numbers were deemed "better than feared" by analyst Dan Ives, despite falling short of internal targets [1][2]. Delivery and Production Summary - Q4 2025 deliveries totaled 418,227 vehicles, approximately 1.1% below Tesla's internal analyst consensus of 422,850 and nearly 3.4% under Visible Alpha's estimate of 432,810 [8]. - Q4 2025 production reached 434,358 vehicles, lagging behind Bloomberg's consensus of 470,780 by about 7.7% [8]. - Full-year 2025 deliveries amounted to 1,636,129 vehicles, closely aligning with Tesla's compiled consensus of 1,640,752 and near third-party expectations of around 1.65 million [8]. - Full-year 2025 production was 1,654,667 vehicles, indicating that Tesla produced slightly more than it delivered [8]. - Energy storage for Q4 reached a record 14.2 GWh, surpassing Tesla's compiled consensus of 13.4 GWh by nearly 6% [8]. Market Context and Challenges - Tesla's delivery numbers are under pressure due to the loss of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit and ongoing challenges in Europe, but the overall report suggests stability rather than decline [3][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Chinese EV manufacturer BYD selling 4.6 million vehicles, including nearly 2.26 million battery EVs, significantly outpacing Tesla's 1.64 million deliveries [14]. - Other competitors like Geely, NIO, and Li Auto also reported strong late-year numbers, emphasizing the competitive nature of the EV market [15]. Future Outlook - Dan Ives believes that Tesla is entering 2026 on firm ground, despite the challenges in achieving delivery growth [7][9]. - The focus is shifting beyond just vehicle deliveries to include advancements in AI, energy, and autonomy, which may help offset weaknesses in the core EV business [4][5]. - Ives maintains a buy rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $600, the highest on Wall Street [10]. Analyst Sentiment and Valuation - Tesla stock is currently trading around $438, having experienced an 8% decline recently but still showing a 16% gain for the year [11]. - Analysts have varied price targets for Tesla, with Deutsche Bank at $500, BofA Securities at $471, Goldman Sachs at $420, Morgan Stanley at $425, and UBS at $247, reflecting differing views on the company's valuation and growth potential [17].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported Q4 2025 deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, reflecting a 16% year-over-year decline compared to Q4 2024's 495,570 deliveries, raising concerns among investors about the stock's premium valuation [1][4]. Delivery Performance - The electric vehicle segment has experienced a downturn for several quarters, with delivery, growth, and margin figures either stalling or declining over the past year [2]. - Q4 delivery estimates anticipated a 15% decrease, but actual figures were worse, indicating dwindling demand globally, particularly in the U.S. after the elimination of the $7,500 tax credit [4]. Financial Metrics - Tesla's net income halved and revenue remained flat in 2024, with 2025 expected to be a recovery year, but current numbers do not align with these expectations [3]. - The growth phase of Tesla's EV segment appears to be over, with projections of never returning to the previous 30-40% annual growth rates, indicating a shift to a maturing business that may face profitability challenges [6]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the EV market are struggling, and the removal of the tax credit did not benefit Tesla as anticipated, as consumers who purchased competitors did so to avoid Tesla or for different product offerings [5]. Market Sentiment - Despite the disappointing delivery figures, Tesla's stock only dropped 1% post-announcement, suggesting that the negative news may have already been factored into the stock price, with investors shifting focus to non-EV ventures like robotaxis and Optimus robots [8][7].

Core Viewpoint - The future of the electric vehicle (EV) industry is being debated, with Elon Musk advocating for robotaxis and autonomous driving, while competitors like Ford and General Motors focus on developing low-cost models [2][11][12]. Group 1: Tesla's Position - Tesla's management emphasizes that the future lies in autonomous electric vehicles, arguing that a regular $25,000 model is "pointless" compared to the cost efficiency of robotaxis [4][10]. - Musk claims that the cost per mile for a Cybercab robotaxi could be as low as $0.30, significantly cheaper than the average cost of over $2 for an internal combustion engine (ICE) taxi [8][9]. - Tesla is strategically positioned to benefit from both the robotaxi development and the production of lower-cost models, making it well-prepared for various market conditions [16][17]. Group 2: Competitors' Strategies - Ford is investing $5 billion in a universal EV platform to produce a $30,000 electric pickup truck by 2027, reflecting a focus on affordability in the EV market [11]. - General Motors has scaled back its EV plans due to disappointing sales and losses, indicating a shift towards more affordable EV options that Musk considers "pointless" [12]. - The sales performance of Tesla's Model 3 has grown nearly 18% through 2025, while competitors like Ford's F-150 Lightning have underperformed, highlighting differing market strategies [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The debate on the future of EVs suggests that both low-cost models and robotaxis may coexist, with the timing of robotaxi rollouts and regulatory approvals being uncertain [14][13]. - Tesla's profitability in its EV business allows it to adapt to market conditions more effectively than its competitors, which may give it an edge in the evolving landscape of the EV industry [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Google achieved its strongest performance since 2009, with Alphabet's stock rising 65% in 2025, outperforming other tech giants [2][3] Stock Performance - Alphabet's stock saw a significant increase of 65% for the year, surpassing gains from 2021, with shares hitting a low in April before rebounding over 100% [2] - Among tech companies valued over $1 trillion, Alphabet was the largest gainer, while Broadcom and Nvidia followed with gains of 49% and 39% respectively [2] AI Developments - Google faced skepticism regarding its ability to maintain dominance in the AI era, particularly with competitors like OpenAI's ChatGPT [2] - The Gemini app, launched to compete with ChatGPT, gained traction, surpassing 5 billion images generated and topping the Apple App Store [4] - Google expanded its AI talent pool by acquiring key personnel from the AI startup Windsurf for $2.4 billion [5] Legal and Regulatory Environment - A U.S. District Judge ruled against severe consequences for Google in an antitrust case, allowing the company to retain its Chrome browser and continue paying for default search engine placements [6][7] Market Position and Growth - Gemini's usage share increased to approximately 18%, while ChatGPT's share dropped to about 68% [8] - Analysts believe Google's AI investments are positively impacting its core search business, with expectations for a 15% revenue growth in Q4 2025 [10][11] Financial Outlook - Alphabet raised its capital spending forecast for 2025 to $93 billion, with projections for 2026 exceeding $114 billion [12] - Google's cloud business signed more deals over $1 billion in 2025 than in the previous two years combined, indicating strong demand [12] Analyst Sentiment - Despite potential risks from OpenAI's financial obligations, analysts maintain a buy rating on Alphabet's stock, raising the price target to $400, approximately 28% above its recent closing price [13] - Analysts predict a market shakeout similar to 2000, with Google positioned to lead among fewer dominant competitors [14]

Uber and Lyft to test Baidu robotaxis in London next year, joining Waymo https://t.co/6ezwCAUDaB ...

Core Viewpoint - Lucid Motors, despite having advanced technology and strong financial backing, is struggling to attract customers and meet production targets, which poses a significant challenge for the company [3][5]. Production and Sales - Lucid is increasing production of its Gravity SUV but has only sold a few hundred units in 2025 due to supply chain issues [4][14]. - The company reported a net loss of nearly $1 billion in the third quarter, which was worse than Wall Street's expectations [5]. - Deliveries have increased for seven consecutive quarters, with a 47% rise over the third quarter of 2024 [14]. Market Position and Competition - Lucid's Air sedan is the top-selling electric full-size luxury sedan, with 10,241 vehicles delivered in 2023, a 71% increase from 2022 [9][10]. - However, the overall market for premium electric sedans is limited, as SUVs and crossovers dominate sales [12][13]. - Tesla's Model Y remains the best-selling vehicle globally, significantly outpacing Lucid's offerings [11]. Financial Health and Investment - Lucid's liquidity has been bolstered by a loan facility increase from $750 million to approximately $2 billion, bringing total liquidity to $5.5 billion [19]. - The company is about 55% owned by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which has invested billions and shown patience during Lucid's production ramp-up [18][19]. Future Plans and Technology - Lucid is developing a mid-size crossover priced around $50,000 to compete in a more accessible market segment [21]. - The company is also investing in autonomous vehicle technology in partnership with Uber and Nvidia [20]. - Lucid claims its vehicles are 30% to 40% more efficient than competitors, which could lead to better margins despite current losses [22][23]. Marketing and Brand Awareness - Lucid faces challenges in brand awareness compared to established luxury brands, prompting a new marketing strategy featuring actor Timothee Chalamet as a brand ambassador [27]. - The company aims to shift its marketing focus from vehicle capabilities to the lifestyle associated with owning a Lucid vehicle [27].

Elon Musk has done a remarkable job of transforming Tesla. During his spell in politics some investors questioned whether he was the right boss. Unless robotaxis look like a winner soon, the questions will only return https://t.co/cJ4cP2vHzw ...

When it comes to the development of robotaxis, we have graduated from a very difficult and technical science project to now a commercialization phase where we're increasingly going to be able to bring this technology to millions of people around the world. We think people should be excited about robo taxis, not just because of the future, but because they will be safer and make it more easy and convenient to get around your city. Robotaxi as a concept has been proven already.We have dozens of our cars roami ...

When it comes to the development of robotaxis, we have graduated from a very difficult and technical science project to now a commercialization phase where we're increasingly going to be able to bring this technology to millions of people around the world. We think people should be excited about robo taxis, not just because of the future, but because they will be safer and make it more easy and convenient to get around your city. Robotaxi as a concept has been proven already.We have dozens of our cars roami ...