US President Donald Trump said China would purchase more US energy as part of a wider trade truce, and hinted at an unspecified “very large scale” transaction involving Alaskan oil and gas https://t.co/EO0610iTrq ...

Donald Trump is betting on charm and magnetism to win the day when he sees his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in South Korea this week. But any deal announced is very probably a truce—not a treaty https://t.co/Kmyd1StZyS ...

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.A possible trade truth with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson saying there is a quote very successful framework for a deal. That's ahead of President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xiinping on Thursday.Some of the key issues in focus, soybeans, rare earth minerals, tariffs, and fentanyl. Futures have been rallying on the news, and all three major indices are set to ...

Group 1 - Global stocks experienced a bounce, while safe-haven assets like gold and bonds retreated, driven by signs of cooling trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1][2] - A potential trade deal could pause U.S. tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls, alleviating investor concerns about a breakdown in the trade truce between the two largest economies [2][4] - European shares rose modestly, with the STOXX 600 up 0.1% near record highs, influenced by a sharp rally in Asian stocks [2][4] Group 2 - U.S. stock futures indicated a strong opening, with Nasdaq futures up 1.4% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.9% [3] - The Chinese yuan rose to a more than one-month high against the dollar, reflecting market optimism regarding U.S.-China trade momentum [4][5] - The People's Bank of China set the official midpoint rate at 7.0881 per dollar, its strongest since October 15, 2024, suggesting potential for further yuan gains if a deal is reached [5] Group 3 - Safe-haven gold prices fell by 2% to $4,028 an ounce, while U.S. Treasury prices eased, resulting in a benchmark 10-year bond yield increase of 2.7 basis points to 4.024% [6] - Commodities such as soybeans, wheat, and corn rose on the prospects of a trade deal [6] Group 4 - Investor attention this week is focused on central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, Europe, and the United States [7]

Trade War & Negotiation Dynamics - JP Morgan suggests expectations for the US-China trade talks should be tempered, viewing them as another data point in ongoing negotiations [3] - A positive outcome might involve discussions on key issues like fentanyl, soybeans, or rare earths, but a grand bargain is unlikely [4] - Any truce is expected to be temporary, given China's increased leverage since the 2017-2018 trade war [4] - China's development and use of leverage tools, such as the rare earth choke point, necessitate the US administration to offer concessions [4] Strategic Goals & Interdependence - Both the US and China share a long-term goal of reducing their dependence on each other while maintaining strategic choke points and trade relations [5][6] - Neither side wants a harsh decoupling or sharp economic downturn, as both are incentivized to prevent it [8] - The US seeks to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, while China aims to decrease its reliance on the US for semiconductors and food [6] Market Impact & Outlook - The market can anticipate a muddling through with temporary truces as both countries pursue long-term goals [8] - Both sides recognize a "mutually assured destruction" scenario due to key choke points, incentivizing them to avoid sharp economic or market disruptions [8]

With the China trade truce seemingly teetering on collapse, the fragility of Trump’s preference to cut one-to-one deals has been laid bare https://t.co/DTMkCEfeeD ...

China called on its companies doing business in the US to avoid extending their price wars there — a sign that Beijing is eager to maintain a fragile trade truce reached with Washington https://t.co/MR5EXfSjog ...

Trade Relations - The US-China trade truce is extended until November, with no immediate plans for changes [1] - A potential summit between President Trump and Jingping is anticipated before year-end [1] - US soybean producers are expressing concerns over China's lack of soybean purchases, potentially impacting US exporters [2] - India is exploring closer trade ties with China amid US trade negotiations [2] US-India Trade Dynamics - India was surprised by the tariffs imposed by the US [3] - India is seeking alternative trade relationships due to potential deterioration in its relationship with the US [4] - The US is concerned about India's purchase of Russian oil, while China is not similarly penalized [4][5] - India defends its right to purchase oil at the cheapest price, highlighting a strained relationship with the US [6] Trump's Investments - Donald Trump's investments and debt filings for the year include holdings in companies like Home Depot and Mattel [7] - The US president is not obligated to divest assets upon taking office, breaking with precedent [8] - The filings reveal details of the US president's investments, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest with his policies [8]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is "very happy" with the current tariff situation with China, indicating there likely won't be any immediate changes to the trade truce between the two countries. https://t.co/dCIRX3q3mZ ...

Trade Relations - US Treasury Secretary indicated satisfaction with current tariff arrangement with China [1] - The Trump administration aims to maintain calm ties before the trade truce expires in November [1]