Tariffs and Trade Policy - The President's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is being challenged in courts, raising concerns about potential economic fallout [1] - The tariffs are extraordinarily high, reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Act during the Great Depression [2] - The constitutionality of the tariffs is questioned, as the power to levy tariffs is constitutionally granted to Congress [3] - The President's inconsistent tariff policies have created enormous uncertainty in global markets [5][6] - CEOs are preparing for continued uncertainty in international business relations due to the tariffs [8] Economic Impact - The President's actions have created greater economic uncertainty than even the COVID-19 pandemic at one point [6] - American companies are already paying higher prices due to the tariffs [10] - Consumers are expected to start feeling the impact of the tariffs in the next couple of months [10] Policy Implications - Restoring the power to levy tariffs to Congress could lead to more democratic policymaking [4] - The President has used tariffs to bully other countries for concessions [7] - The President's tariff rates have been subject to frequent changes according to his whims [7]

We begin with the economic uncertainty created by President Trump who in the face of negative news about the US economy did what he so often does, fire the messenger. He announced he'd directed the termination of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics just hours after a weak jobs report showed signs of a clear slowdown in the job market. In a social media post, he attacked Erica McInterer, the commissioner of the BLS, saying reports, quote, are being produced by Biden appointee, adding that important nu ...

Economic Slowdown & Job Market - US economy's job growth has slowed, with an average of 85,000 jobs added per month this year, compared to 168,000 jobs per month last year [2] - The report indicates deepening cracks in the US economy, with businesses putting expansion plans on hold due to economic uncertainty [4] - Potential US economic growth has shifted down due to changes in the labor force [9] Impact of Tariffs & Trade Policies - Tariffs are slowing job growth and economic growth [3] - Tariffs are expected to increase prices over time, impacting consumers [22] - Deportation policies are having an effect on the labor markets [5] - Tariffs on products from countries like Canada (originally 25% to 35%) and Switzerland (39%) could impact various sectors, including lumber, cars, and medicines [18][19] - Tariffs on Brazilian products, such as beef (50%), could be felt by consumers [21] Inflation & Consumer Spending - There is a possibility of stagflation, where growth slows (currently at about 12% to 2% annual rate) and inflation picks up closer to 3% rather than 2% [6] - Consumer spending growth is half of what it was a year ago, indicating concern among American consumers [16] - Tariffs are raising costs on everyday products, impacting back-to-school, Thanksgiving, and Christmas shopping [12] White House Perspective - The White House is nervous about the economic situation and is preaching patience [17] - The current economy is producing half as many new jobs as the "Biden economy" did in 2024 [14]

Labor Market Trends - US job growth cooled sharply over the past three months [1] - The labor market is shifting into a lower gear [1] Economic Outlook - Widespread economic uncertainty exists [1]

Labor Market Trends - US job growth cooled more than forecast [1] - Labor market is shifting into a lower gear amid widespread economic uncertainty [1]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Equity market's risk appetite surge may favor momentum-fueled assets, potentially halting gold's rally since November 2022 [1] - Gold's appeal as a safe haven diminishes with rising stock prices driven by optimism and capital flows [1] - Equities signaling economic strength and deflation could create headwinds for gold's extended rally fueled by economic uncertainty and inflation fears [1] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Persistent risk-on sentiment in equity markets could pressure gold's long bullish trend [2] - Gold's role as a portfolio diversifier could limit downside risks if uncertainties linger [2] - Long-term demand from central banks and geopolitical concerns could provide a floor to gold's price [2] Monetary Policy Impact - Federal Reserve's continued focus on rate cuts could limit downside risks for gold [2]

Industry Trend - Despite deep economic uncertainty, high-fashion resort pop-ups continue to emerge [1]

Let's bring in former Dallas Fed President Richard Fiser. Richard, also Jeffrey's senior adviser and a CNBC contributor. And it's it's good to have you here, Richard.Well, if Steve says something, it is true. I just want you to know that. All right.Well, I guess we're done here. Um, no. So, we are I do have I I I think it's it's really fascinating this moment that we're in.You know, a lot of of assumptions have to uh kind of be pulled into service to figure out what the proper stance is. Now, part of what C ...

Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - Consumer uncertainty due to economic factors, tariffs, and global conflicts leads to reduced spending [1] - Consumers are increasingly value-conscious, seeking affordable options [3] - Food at home consumption remains robust, accounting for approximately 87% of total food consumption, indicating a shift away from eating out [2] - Consumers seek bold flavors and nostalgic products when stressed [4][5] Company Performance & Strategy - The company has invested significantly in brand value over the last 6 months in response to consumer value consciousness [3] - The company observed increased pound volumes and shares in over 60% of its categories in the US retail business during the last quarter [4] - The company held share in its pet food business and grew share in food service and international markets [4]

We've been speaking with top economists to better understand what this economic climate means for companies' bottom lines. Today, I'm speaking with CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth. Hi, Danielle, thanks so much for taking the time to speak with me again this year.Thank you for having me. Great to be with you again. How can companies protect their bottom lines in this time of political and economic uncertainty.So, you know, the idea of battening down the hatches before the hu ...