Canada’s largest stock exchanges are atrophying, with the number of publicly traded companies shrinking for a fourth straight year even as the country’s stock benchmark soared past the S&P 500. Delistings and companies taken private continue to outpace IPOs on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the junior TSX Venture Exchange, a stark contrast to the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index’s 27% increase. The number of corporate issuers on the TSX has fallen 45% since 2008 to 678 as of the end of the third quarter, ...

Market Bubble & Potential Weakness - The market may experience pressure as wealth is sold to provide necessary funds, regardless of a bubble [1] - Dislocations are expected in private equity and venture capital due to firms needing to support existing positions that may no longer be feasible [3] - Weakness may emerge in SAS and other software companies if their functions are replaced by AI or other technologies [4] - Issues have already surfaced in the private credit space [4] Earnings Growth & Market Safety - Strong double-digit earnings growth could safeguard the market [4] - The peak impact of physical and monetary stimulus from the previous year is expected to continue through the end of next year, potentially driving double-digit earnings growth into 2026 and beyond [4] - Continued strong tailwinds behind topline and double-digit earnings growth could mitigate the impact of dislocations [5] - The firm has a bullish S&P price target of 7,500, indicating confidence in strong earnings [6] Consumer & Consumption Dynamics - The firm is bullish on consumption but mixed on the consumer [7] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption [8] - The bottom third of earners account for only 15% of consumption [9] Inflation & Political Issues - Inflation is anticipated to be more of a political issue than an economic one in 2026 [9][11] - The affordability crisis will be intertwined with inflation and will be a central issue as the midterms approach [11] - The affordability crisis affects a plurality of people, particularly the bottom half of earners, making it a key political concern [12]

US bank regulators are easing Obama-era rules that curbed leveraged lending amid rapid growth in the private credit industry and complaints by bankers that they’re being sidelined by too much regulation https://t.co/QXu1RbYo0W ...

Summary of Virtus Investment Partners Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Virtus Investment Partners (NYSE: VRTS) - **Acquisition Target**: Keystone National Group - **Transaction Date**: Announcement on December 5, 2025 - **Transaction Value**: $200 million for a 56% majority stake, with up to $170 million in deferred consideration over two years [11][12] Key Points and Arguments Strategic Rationale - The acquisition of Keystone National Group aims to expand Virtus's investment capabilities to include private market strategies, particularly in asset-based lending [4][5] - Keystone specializes in asset-centric private credit, which is expected to meet the growing demand for differentiated private market strategies [5][6] - The transaction is anticipated to be immediately accretive to margins and Non-GAAP EPS upon closing in Q1 2026 [6][13] Financial Performance - Keystone has shown strong financial performance with a revenue and EBITDA CAGR exceeding 35% over the past three years [5] - The firm has grown assets under management to $2.5 billion, primarily through the RIA channel [7] - Keystone's flagship fund, the Keystone Private Income Fund, has gained traction with leading wealth managers due to its attractive performance [9][10] Investment Strategy - Keystone's asset-based lending approach is characterized by secured financing, shorter durations, and strong covenants, providing more downside protection compared to traditional private credit strategies [9][18] - The firm focuses on collateralized loans, ensuring that the underlying assets are critical to the borrower's operations [33] Market Position and Growth Opportunities - The acquisition is expected to enhance Keystone's ability to manage its strategies while benefiting from Virtus's support model, including distribution and marketing capabilities [10][11] - There are significant growth opportunities in both retail and institutional channels, with plans to expand Keystone's existing capabilities [36][37] Financial Impact - The transaction is projected to improve operating margins by approximately 200 basis points and contribute about $1.50 to adjusted EPS in 2026 [13] - Anticipated annual tax savings of approximately $5 million due to intangible assets created by the transaction [13] Additional Insights - The management teams of both companies share similar philosophies, emphasizing investment excellence and long-term value creation [6] - Keystone's management will retain significant equity and has entered into long-term employment agreements to ensure continuity [6][12] - The firm has a strong track record of sourcing and origination, focusing on smaller ticket sizes in less crowded market segments [29][30] Conclusion - The acquisition of Keystone National Group represents a strategic move for Virtus Investment Partners to enhance its private market offerings and capitalize on growth opportunities in the wealth management space. The transaction is expected to provide immediate financial benefits and align with the company's long-term strategic objectives.

What banks don't know about private credit can hurt them (via @opinion) https://t.co/tRQnRF88Yb ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is conducting a stress test on the private equity sector to assess its resilience in a hypothetical financial crisis, highlighting concerns over the opacity and risks associated with the $11 trillion shadow banking market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stress Test Overview - Major financial groups such as KKR, Blackstone, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management are participating in the stress test [2]. - The system-wide exploratory exercise (SWES) will be conducted next year, with full conclusions expected by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Market Growth and Employment Impact - The private equity and private credit sectors have expanded from $3 trillion to $11 trillion in assets over the past decade [4]. - In the UK, 10% of private sector workers are employed by private equity-backed companies, which account for 15% of corporate debt and a significant portion of riskier lending [4]. Group 3: Recent Market Concerns - The collapse of American companies First Brands and Tricolor has raised alarms about potential risks in the private credit market, which heavily relies on lending to companies rather than banks [5]. - A downturn in private markets could adversely affect banks that lend to private equity-backed firms, potentially undermining financial stability and economic growth [5]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Risks - Private equity-owned companies currently employ approximately two million people in the UK, indicating a significant impact on employment [6]. - A rapid contraction of companies backed by private equity could lead to increased unemployment and negatively affect related markets, such as housing and mortgage lending [6]. Group 5: Industry Characteristics and Risks - The rapid growth of private credit is characterized by its opacity and illiquidity, which may lead to adverse outcomes [7].

Core Viewpoint - Treasury Secretary Scott Besson expressed concerns about the procyclical nature of private credit, suggesting that in an economic downturn, investor panic could exacerbate financial instability [1][2] Group 1: Private Credit Concerns - Besson's worry is that private credit, being investor-financed, may lead to panic during economic downturns, unlike government entities that can provide stability [2] - The procyclical nature of private credit could result in investors withdrawing during downturns, which may worsen financial conditions [1][2] Group 2: Private Credit's Role - Private credit has been a stabilizing factor in the financial markets, particularly during crises like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, providing necessary capital when public markets were unavailable [5][6] - Investors in private credit typically view it as a long-term allocation, with strategies spanning 5 to 20 years, rather than a short-term trade [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Companies like Blue Owl Capital, which manage significant assets in private credit, emphasize a conservative approach, focusing on stable returns rather than high-risk, high-reward opportunities [12][13] - The strategy involves securing long-term contracts with high-quality credits, such as those from major hyperscalers, to mitigate risks associated with technology and market fluctuations [13][16]

Treasury Secretary Scott Besson addressing investors brewing concerns about private credit yesterday at the Dealbook Summit. >> I have a different worry about private credit than other people do. My my worry is that in a downturn it could be very proyclical that because it is financed by investors I if there was a some kind of financial instability if there was a downturn in the economy Treasury through the regul and the regulators and the Fed we can give window guidance to the regulators to loosen lending ...

Group 1 - DMI Alternatives raised $120 million for its inaugural private credit fund, focusing on sectors benefiting from long-term growth trends in India's economy, such as health care, technology, and financial services [1] - The private credit market in India is experiencing significant growth, with deal flow reaching $9 billion in the first half of the year, a 53% increase from the same period last year [1] - The fund aims to provide financing tailored to Indian companies positioned for sustainable growth [1] Group 2 - Harein Uppal has been hired to lead the new fund, emphasizing the need for flexible capital solutions beyond traditional banking and capital markets [2] - DMI Alternatives is affiliated with DMI Finance, which is backed by Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd [2] - In August, MUFG invested approximately $330 million in DMI Finance, which was valued at about $3 billion, to enhance lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises [3]

Apollo CEO Marc Rowan writes some media reports fail to note some facts about private credit, as fears build around the asset class. Bloomberg Chief Wall Street Correspondent Sridhar Natarajan goes over Rowan's so-called myths on "Bloomberg Markets" with Vonnie Quinn. ...