So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller, hi Steve. >> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now.Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to a record above $3,500 an ounce, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][4] - Spot gold briefly exceeded $3,508 in New York trading, marking a significant increase of approximately one-third in 2025, outperforming most major assets [1][16] - UBS strategist Joni Teves indicated that the rise in gold prices is linked to increased allocations by investors anticipating Fed rate cuts [2] Group 2: Market Influences - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole hinted at potential rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations [3] - A cooler labor market has further solidified the case for easier monetary policy, with the upcoming jobs report expected to provide clearer direction [3] - Wall Street experienced a decline in stock prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 441 points, contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 3: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices also rose, surpassing $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011, with nearly 40% gains year-to-date [3][6] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its dual role as a safe-haven asset and its industrial applications, particularly in clean energy [6] Group 4: Investor Behavior - ETF buying has increased for seven consecutive months, leading to a reduction in available inventories in London and elevated lease rates [6] - Seasonal trends indicate September is historically a weak month for equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2% decline over the past five years, prompting a shift towards gold [16]

Market Strategy - Capital preservation should be a top priority, especially with upcoming rate cuts [1] - Avoid round tripping profits by chasing dips that could decline another 20% [1]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next month, with an 88% probability [5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability is in focus, particularly the conflict between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation around 2.9% [4][11][12] - Inflation is stuck slightly above the target, and it's uncertain whether it will decrease soon [9] - The pace of rate cuts is crucial; a slow and steady approach is favored, aligning with a softening labor market while respecting the inflation backdrop [8][9][10] - The market is closely watching break-even inflation rates for signs of unease, but the bond market is largely holding together [16] Labor Market - The labor market is showing clear signs of deceleration, and the Fed is concerned about it losing momentum [3][8] - The labor report next week is crucial in determining the Fed's next steps after the initial 25 basis point cut [4][5][6] - It's important to determine if the labor market slowdown is due to structural issues (AI, immigration) or cyclical factors [5] Fed Independence - The market is not seriously pricing in a loss of Fed independence, despite recent political drama [22] - Institutional guardrails are believed to protect Fed independence, which is crucial for market confidence and controlling long-end rates [21][23][24] - Maintaining Fed credibility is essential, especially with pressure to ease rates amid persistent inflation [15]

Core Viewpoint - Vornado Realty's preferred shares are expected to benefit from anticipated rate cuts and the company's strategy to sell non-core assets [1] Company Summary - Vornado Realty (NYSE: VNO) is focusing on enhancing the value of its preferred shares, particularly the 4.45% Series O cumulative preferreds (NYSE: VNO.PR.O) [1] - The company is actively pursuing the disposal of non-core assets to strengthen its financial position [1] Industry Summary - The equity market is characterized by significant daily price fluctuations that can lead to substantial long-term wealth creation or destruction [1] - Pacifica Yield is targeting long-term wealth creation by investing in undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Market Performance & Economic Outlook - S&P 500 earnings are up 10% year-over-year, and NASDAQ 100 earnings are up 34% year-over-year, indicating strength in the US market [1] - Concerns about Fed independence are causing a slight sell-off at the long end of the curve [2] - The Fed's influence is strongest on the two-year rate, which has decreased by approximately 7-8 basis points [3] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed only controls the short-term lending rate, and excessive cuts could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, potentially resulting in higher longer-term interest rates [3] - There is potential for the Fed to implement two or three rate cuts without significantly impacting the long end of the curve, even with inflation around 3% [4] - Lower rates on money markets and challenges in generating income from interest rates and bonds make equity income more attractive [5] Investment Strategy - The ITWO ETF, a Russell 2000 high-income ETF focused on small caps, is highlighted as a pick [4] - Small caps are more leveraged and have shorter maturity, making them more sensitive to and potentially benefiting more from rate cuts compared to large caps [5]

Monetary Policy - 美联储主席鲍威尔立场偏鸽派 [1] - 预计未来将降息 [1] Market Impact - 利好风险资产 [1] - 以太坊价格预计将大幅上涨 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the foreign exchange (FX), interest rates, and commodities markets, with a focus on the implications of stagflationary risks and monetary policy adjustments in various regions. Core Points and Arguments Foreign Exchange (FX) Market - The EUR-USD forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of further USD weakness. The end-2025 forecast is now set at 1.20 (up from 1.17) and 1.25 for end-2026 (up from 1.20) [3][22][39]. - The dollar is expected to depreciate further due to rising stagflationary risks and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to lower relative real interest rates [20][21][22]. Interest Rates - US interest rates have been revised lower, with the end-2025 forecast for the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.5% and the 10-year yield at 4.25% [4][16][19]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reassess its risk balance, potentially leading to lower rates in response to cooling employment data and inflation concerns [14][17]. - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates further, with a forecast of 3.5% by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [58][64]. Commodities - There have been revisions to core energy commodity price forecasts, including Brent and WTI oil, while forecasts for industrial and precious metals remain unchanged [8]. Regional Insights - **Emerging Markets (EM) Asia**: The forecast for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) remains stable at 7.10, with a mildly bullish outlook for the Indian Rupee (INR) [5]. - **Latin America (LatAm)**: The GDP growth forecast for the region has been upgraded due to stronger expected growth in Mexico, despite external volatility [7]. - **EEMEA**: A structurally bullish outlook is maintained for EEMEA FX, driven by US stagflationary risks and concerns over Federal Reserve independence [6]. Important but Overlooked Content - The potential erosion of US data credibility poses additional risks for the dollar, complicating the market's outlook [20][23]. - The ECB's recent hawkish tilt may not be sustainable, as the economic implications of the US-EU trade deal could negatively impact the euro area [27][29]. - The Japanese government is expected to adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which could influence the JGB market and yield forecasts [43][45]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant shifts in FX and interest rate forecasts due to evolving economic conditions, particularly in the context of stagflationary risks and monetary policy adjustments across major economies. The outlook for commodities remains stable, with specific regional insights indicating varied growth trajectories.

Market Outlook - The market anticipates a dovish stance from Powell [1] - Rate cuts are expected [1] Cryptocurrency Predictions - Bitcoin is projected to increase to $150,000 [1] - Ethereum ($ETH) is predicted to surge to $6,000 [1] - Altcoins are expected to potentially increase by 100x [1]

Group 1 - The article lacks specific content regarding the Federal Reserve or any financial analysis [1][2][4] - There is no detailed information on market trends, economic indicators, or investment opportunities [1][2][3] - The author’s background in journalism and finance is noted, but it does not provide insights into current market conditions or company performance [3][4]