Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

Group 1 - Investors should prepare for weaker stock market performance in the next six months according to Vanguard's outlook [1] - Vanguard's global head of rates, Roger Hallam, anticipates a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year [1] - The labor market is expected to gradually cool while inflation rises, leading to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Hallam believes that prioritizing jobs will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates towards the end of the year [2] - This environment is expected to create a favorable condition for bonds, encouraging clients to allocate more to fixed income [2] - Vanguard is launching three U.S. government bond exchange-traded funds, including the Vanguard Government Securities Active ETF (VGVT) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 75.1% chance of the US Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, which may be a key reason for the recent bullish trend in global stock markets [2][24]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year down to 2.3%, from an earlier prediction of 2.8%, indicating that the period from 2020 to 2027 may see the lowest economic growth since 1960 [2][25]. - The average price of commodities is expected to decline by 10% year-on-year this year and by another 6% next year due to low economic growth and trade policies [2][25]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Recent CFTC data shows a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum and palladium have seen increases in long positions [3][7]. - Gold prices have accumulated a 27.2% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 24.3% [7][11]. - The gold/silver ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. Group 3: Fund Positioning - Managed positions in gold futures have decreased by 4.5%, while silver futures have seen an 8.7% drop in long positions [3][7]. - The net long position in palladium has increased, but it remains in a historically high net short position [8][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The relationship between economic indicators and commodity prices suggests that if the US enters a recession, it may lead to a decline in commodity prices, including gold [25][26]. - The current geopolitical climate and trade tensions are influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for commodity prices [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The company suggests that in the current market environment, strategies such as shorting base metals, holding cash, and maintaining positions in gold and silver may be prudent [28][30]. - The focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors is impacting investment decisions in the mining sector, leading to a lag in mining stocks compared to commodity prices [20].

Core Viewpoint - Analyst Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research upgraded Stanley Black & Decker from "underperform" to "peer perform," indicating a potential stabilization in the stock's performance [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Coe suggests that the demand for Stanley's products is likely at a low point, or "trough," and anticipates a rebound, particularly if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates [3] - The company is currently experiencing its third consecutive year of declining sales, but there is a consensus among analysts that earnings will grow this year and continue to grow for at least the next couple of years [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Long-term growth rate projections for Stanley Black & Decker are estimated at a respectable 11% annualized [4] - The company reported strong free cash flow of $765 million over the past year, which is twice the reported GAAP earnings [4] - At a valuation of 14 times free cash flow and a dividend yield of 4.7%, Stanley's stock appears to be undervalued [5]

"此前，我曾认为英国经济会软着陆，2025年通胀仍有上行风险，"泰勒在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行 论坛上发表讲话时说。"现在我认为软着陆面临风险，随着需求疲软和贸易混乱的加剧，2026年经济弱 于预期、使我们偏离轨道的可能性增大。"泰勒自9月加入MPC以来，已在七次会议中五度投票赞成降 息。5月会议上他支持大幅降息0.5个百分点，6月会议则支持降息0.25个百分点。他周三告诉彭博电视， 他认为不一定需要更大幅度的降息，不过，由于MPC每年只有八次会议，这对寻求加快宽松步伐的决 策者来说是一个分配问题。自加入MPC以来，泰勒就因清晰传达对利率走势的预期而吸引经济学家关 注，他在讲话中说，MPC如果能找到一种工具来传达对未来利率的看法，将会"受益匪浅"。"第一季的 一些冲击和杂音影响了我对经济和全球发展的看法，基于我对前景不断恶化的解读，我认为我们需要一 条更低的利率路径，在2025年需要降息五次，而不是市场预期的四次逐季降息，"泰勒说。泰勒在演讲 中展示的图表显示，如果他对经济的下行预期成真，明年下半年利率可能降至2.25%左右。英国央行上 个月将利率维持在4.25%不变，投资者目前押注央行将再有两次的降息25 ...

Goldman Sachs global chief economist Yan Hatius joins us with his first take on the report looks good from the headlines but as I highlighted earlier beneath the surface you know where the job growth was concentrated why the unemployment rate came down wasn't all that great what do you think true it overstates the strength of the report if you just look at the headline numbers I think on the establishment survey the private sector was pretty soft and the big headline number was really driven by increas piec ...

Poland’s central bank Governor Adam Glapinski pushes back against growing market expectations that a surprise interest rate cut on Wednesday has kicked off an easing cycle https://t.co/hXXQIlQVph ...

Market Overview - In 2025, markets are experiencing high volatility, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs despite uncertain economic indicators [1][2] - Analysts anticipate clearer monetary and tariff policies in the second half of the year, along with solid earnings reports, particularly in the tech sector driven by AI [2] Company Insights - **CME Group**: - Operates the largest derivatives marketplace, benefiting from increased trading volumes in volatile markets [5] - Stock has risen over 40% in the last 12 months and over 18% in 2025, showing signs of recovery after a pullback [6][7] - **Goldman Sachs**: - A leading global investment bank that thrives in volatile markets, generating revenue from expanded bid-ask spreads and increased trading activity [9][10] - Stock is up 23.8% in 2025, with bullish momentum but potential for a short-term pullback [11] - **MarketAxess**: - Operates an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds, expected to benefit from increased trading volumes as credit market volatility rises [13][14] - Stock is down 1.5% in 2025 but has shown a 3.1% increase in the last three months, indicating a potential breakout [15][16]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Central banks have done a good job taming the great inflation of 2022 [1] - The primary concern should be the inflation trajectory, as it dictates the direction of interest rates [3][4] - Current policy is broadly in line with a neutral stance, with analysts suggesting a 7% nominal rate indicates neutral territory [14][15] - Uncertainty about the inflation trajectory persists due to past volatility [15] Inflation Target & Policy Revision - There's an opportunity for "opportunistic disinflation," using a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations [5][11] - The current inflation target range is considered too wide and high compared to peers, necessitating a revision [10] - The South African Reserve Bank is undergoing a review, with recommendations to lower the inflation target to 2-3% [6][8] - Lowering the inflation target could lead to lower nominal interest rates [14] Risks & Communication - Geopolitical shocks and policy decisions (tariffs) can impact the economic outlook [2] - Scenarios are useful for policymakers to communicate potential risks and future trajectories, but require careful communication to avoid public misinterpretation [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report has shifted its forecast for the next 25 basis point (bp) rate cut to September, previously expected in December, and has lowered the terminal funds rate forecast to 3-3.25% from 3.5-3.75% [2][3][22] Core Insights - The report indicates that the odds of a rate cut in September are somewhat above 50%, driven by underwhelming tariff effects, larger disinflationary offsets, and potential labor market softness [2][13][10] - The expectation is for three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, October, and December 2025, with additional cuts anticipated in March and June 2026 [3][22] - The report highlights that recent evidence suggests tariff effects on consumer prices are smaller than previously expected, contributing to a more favorable environment for rate cuts [5][4][10] Summary by Sections Rate Cut Forecast - The forecast for the next rate cut has been moved forward to September, with expectations of three 25bp cuts in September, October, and December 2025 [2][3][22] - The terminal rate forecast has been reduced to 3-3.25%, reflecting a change in outlook regarding the economy's performance at higher interest rates [14][18][22] Inflation and Tariff Effects - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate potential support for a cut in September if inflation data is not excessively high [4][6] - Evidence shows that tariff impacts on consumer prices are less significant than anticipated, with moderating wage growth and weak demand for travel providing additional disinflationary pressure [5][10][11] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market remains healthy, but job openings are slowly declining, making it harder for unemployed individuals to find jobs, which could influence the timing of rate cuts [10][11][12] - Near-term risks to payrolls are noted due to changes in immigration policy and residual seasonality, which could prompt earlier cuts if employment data shows weakness [10][13]