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Sector Focus - Private credit sector is potentially undervalued within the Real World Assets (RWAs) space [1] Market Trend - Discusses the "golden bull run" in private credit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is actively seeking acquisitions, but potential deals may not align with current market speculation, particularly regarding Northern Trust, which has seen a 20% increase in share price due to rumors [1][10]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs' Acquisition Strategy - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is cautious about overpaying for acquisitions, particularly in the case of Northern Trust, which would require a premium price [2][4]. - The unique culture of Goldman Sachs may hinder its ability to merge with another bank of similar size [2]. - Goldman Sachs is under pressure to grow its market capitalization, which stands at $221 billion compared to JPMorgan's $830 billion, indicating a need for strategic acquisitions to remain competitive [7]. Group 2: Potential Acquisition Targets - State Street Corp., valued at approximately $30 billion, is identified as a potential acquisition target for Goldman Sachs due to its strong position in custodian and investment services [8]. - BNY Mellon, a mid-sized bank, is also considered a target, especially following their joint venture to offer tokenized money market funds, which could lead to a merger [9]. Group 3: Broader Banking Merger Landscape - The Federal Reserve's relaxed regulatory approach is encouraging merger discussions among banks, allowing mid-sized banks to expand after years of restrictions [5][6]. - Citigroup, having improved its balance sheet, is now positioned to pursue acquisitions, potentially including a European bank to enhance its international presence [12][14]. - UBS is reportedly looking to acquire US bank assets following its merger with Credit Suisse, aiming to reduce its exposure in Switzerland [14].

Private Credit Market - Private credit plans to tap into the $12 trillion pool of US retirement savings [1] Newsletter Focus - The newsletter "Going Private" focuses on private markets [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income for the quarter of $1.6 billion, with distributable earnings also at $1.6 billion or $1.21 per common share, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase [5][6] - Fee-related earnings grew 31% year-over-year, contributing to a total fee revenue of $2.5 billion, up 27% year-over-year [30][32] - Total assets under management (AUM) increased 13% year-over-year to a record $1.2 trillion, supported by inflows of $52 billion in the second quarter and $212 billion over the last twelve months [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private credit platform has seen significant growth, with AUM increasing threefold over the past five years to $484 billion, and revenue from this platform has increased more than fourfold [16][18] - The private wealth channel has grown AUM to nearly $280 billion, with revenue from flagship vehicles exceeding $700 million in the second quarter alone, compared to approximately $50 million five years ago [21][22] - Infrastructure AUM rose 32% year-over-year to $64 billion, supported by strong investment performance [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a favorable economic backdrop with resilient growth and declining inflation, which may allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates over time, positively impacting asset values [10][11] - The U.S. stock market is at record levels, with M&A activity accelerating and the IPO market reopening, indicating a more conducive environment for transactions [12][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its platforms in private wealth, credit, and insurance, along with launching multiple new funds [6][7] - The firm aims to capitalize on the $12 trillion U.S. defined contribution channel, which could provide significant growth opportunities [7] - The company is well-positioned to navigate the current dynamic environment, with a strong portfolio concentrated in compelling sectors and $181 billion of dry powder available for investment [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery in transaction activity, citing a favorable regulatory environment and pent-up demand for M&A and IPOs [28][90] - The company anticipates an acceleration in net realizations as the market stabilizes and transaction activity increases [38][39] - Management highlighted the importance of investment performance, noting that the second quarter represented the highest amount of overall fund appreciation in nearly four years [7][33] Other Important Information - The company has launched BMAX, a multi-asset credit product aimed at expanding access to the private credit universe for individual investors [101] - The firm is targeting significant growth in its insurance channel, managing over $250 billion on behalf of insurers, up 20% year-over-year [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Credit market dynamics and demand - Management noted that demand for private credit remains robust, with clients focused on the enduring premium between liquid markets and private credit, which is expected to continue driving growth [43][45] Question: Real estate market recovery - Management indicated that the recovery in real estate is a matter of timing, with new supply declining and cost of capital improving, leading to a more favorable supply-demand dynamic [52][54] Question: Strategic partners and secondary fund outlook - Management highlighted strong returns in the secondary fund driven by significant new purchases and good appreciation in underlying funds, with a positive outlook for fundraising [61][64] Question: Retirement opportunity set - Management discussed the potential for alternatives in defined contribution plans, particularly in target date funds, emphasizing the need for patience regarding regulatory developments [70][72] Question: Forward-looking guidance on FRE margin - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong FRE margins, driven by healthy management fee growth and performance revenues, while noting some variability based on fund mix [78][80] Question: Confidence in deal-making activity - Management conveyed increased confidence in transaction activity resuming, supported by favorable market conditions and a busy IPO pipeline [86][90] Question: Real estate performance and accrued fees - Management indicated that a significant portion of real estate AUM is above hurdle rates, suggesting a favorable trajectory for accrued performance fees as the market normalizes [93][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income for Q2 2025 of $1,600,000,000, with distributable earnings also at $1,600,000,000 or $1.21 per common share, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase [5][6][31] - Fee-related earnings grew 31% year-over-year, contributing to total fee revenues of $2,500,000,000, up 27% year-over-year [6][30] - Total assets under management (AUM) increased 13% year-over-year to a record $1,200,000,000,000, supported by inflows of $52,000,000,000 in Q2 and $212,000,000,000 over the last twelve months [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private credit platform has grown significantly, with AUM reaching $484,000,000,000, up threefold in the past five years, and revenue from this platform increasing more than fourfold [16] - The private wealth channel has seen AUM grow to nearly $280,000,000,000, with revenue from flagship vehicles exceeding $700,000,000 in Q2 [22] - Infrastructure AUM rose 32% year-over-year to $64,000,000,000, supported by strong investment performance [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a favorable economic backdrop with resilient growth and declining inflation, which may allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates over time, positively impacting asset values [11][12] - The U.S. stock market reached record levels, and M&A activity, particularly sponsor M&A, is accelerating, indicating a more conducive environment for transactions [13][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its platforms in private wealth, credit, and insurance, as well as launching new funds in its drawdown area [6][7] - The firm aims to capitalize on the $12,000,000,000,000 U.S. defined contribution channel, which could provide significant growth opportunities [7] - The company is well-positioned to navigate the current dynamic environment, with a strong portfolio concentrated in compelling sectors and $181,000,000,000 of dry powder available for investment [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a favorable environment for deal-making, with a significant pipeline of potential IPOs and increased transaction activity expected [27][90] - The company anticipates an acceleration in net realizations as the market stabilizes and transaction activity increases [39] - Management highlighted the importance of technological innovation and economic fundamentals as key growth catalysts [8][11] Other Important Information - The company has launched BMAX, a multi-asset credit product aimed at expanding access to the private credit universe for individual investors [24][102] - The partnership with Legal and General aims to manage investment-grade private credit solutions, targeting up to $20,000,000,000 over the next five years [19][116] Q&A Session Summary Question: Credit demand and implications on fee rates - Management noted that demand for private credit remains robust, with clients focused on the enduring premium between liquid markets and private credit, which should support continued growth [44][46] Question: Real estate recovery expectations - Management indicated that the recovery in real estate is a matter of timing, with new supply declining and cost of capital improving, leading to a more favorable supply-demand dynamic [52][56] Question: Strategic partners and fundraising outlook - Management highlighted strong returns in the secondary fund segment, driven by significant new purchases and good appreciation in underlying funds, with a positive outlook for fundraising [61][64] Question: Retirement opportunity set and access to alternatives - Management expressed optimism about the potential for alternatives in defined contribution plans, particularly in target date funds, but emphasized the need to wait for regulatory developments [70][74] Question: Fee-related performance revenues outlook - Management provided insights on expected performance revenues, indicating a modest amount from certain funds in the upcoming quarters, with a focus on layering various products for future earnings power [108][112]

Brazilian securitization firm VERT has launched a blockchain-based private credit platform on the XRP Ledger, debuting with a $130 million issuance of an Agribusiness Receivables Certificate. By @shauryamalwa.https://t.co/KbjlRI3d3U ...

Private Credit Market Growth - Private markets have expanded significantly, reaching a $13 trillion valuation [1] - The private credit industry tripled in value from $517 billion in 2015 to over $1.7 trillion in 2025 [1] - The industry is expected to increase by 50% in the next 4 years [1] Risks and Concerns - Regulators and investors are concerned about the risks associated with private credit's rapid growth [1] - Systemic risks are a concern due to the size of the private credit market [2] - Rising interest rates pose a significant risk, potentially straining borrowers' balance sheets [2] - Default rates are expected to rise, regardless of a recession [2] - Private credit loans are hard to value, and defaults could occur rapidly if the economy weakens [2]

Blockchain Adoption - Brazil's top fund management firm VERT launches a blockchain platform on XRPL [1] - The platform is designed to manage private credit operations [1] Transaction Details - The first live transaction is a CRA issuance valued at $130 million [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's reported second quarter revenue of $1.9 billion, representing a 4% year-over-year growth, despite a tough comparison to the previous year's 22% growth [6][7] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 50.9%, up 130 basis points from a year ago, translating to adjusted diluted EPS of $3.56, a 9% increase [7][8] - The company narrowed its guidance ranges for rated issuance, MIS revenue, and EPS based on second quarter performance [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - MIS revenue was flat year-over-year at $1 billion, with a favorable issuance mix contributing to transaction revenue growth despite a 12% decline in overall issuance [26][27] - Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue grew 11%, with recurring revenue increasing by 12%, driven by strong demand in Decision Solutions [31][32] - Private credit-related transactions accounted for nearly 25% of first-time mandates, with revenue related to private credit growing 75% year-over-year [12][84] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. public finance group rated the highest quarterly issuance volume since 2007, with first-time mandates nearly reaching 200 in the second quarter [29] - In EMEA, first-time mandates increased year-over-year, driven by private credit mandates [30] - The private credit market continues to grow, with significant demand for ratings as investors seek transparency and comparability [95][96] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on strengthening its position in private credit markets and enhancing its analytics capabilities through strategic partnerships, such as with MSCI [13][20] - The company is investing in digital transformation and AI adoption to capitalize on multi-year investment cycles for customers [42] - Moody's aims to leverage its data integration with major technology players to enhance customer access and monetization opportunities [21][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the second half of the year, highlighting key credit themes that could influence performance [10] - The company is monitoring macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties that may impact issuance volumes [39] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a disciplined expense management approach to support margin expansion [66] Other Important Information - Moody's Analytics achieved a 96% recurring revenue rate, reinforcing the predictability of its business model [14] - The company completed the acquisition of ICR Chile, enhancing its presence in the Latin American bond market [19] - Moody's received recognition for its innovative solutions, being ranked number one in quantitative analytics for the third consecutive year [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Decision Solutions and KYC - Management acknowledged strategic terminations and government-related attrition affecting KYC and insurance, but noted strong growth in banking lending products [46][48] Question: Potential Pull Forward of Issuance - Management indicated no significant pull forward of issuance occurred, with both public and private credit markets performing well [57][58] Question: Operating Margin Expansion - Management clarified that the margin expansion was due to operational efficiencies and not due to expense shifts from Q2 to later quarters [64][66] Question: Banking Sector Performance - Management noted that while banking ARR has seen declines, lending products are showing strong growth, particularly with the integration of Numerated [70][71] Question: AI and GenAI Contributions - Management highlighted that while standalone AI revenue is not material, early adopters of GenAI are showing double the growth compared to other customers [78][80] Question: Private Credit Contributions - Management confirmed that private credit is contributing to various revenue streams, particularly in structured finance and first-time mandates [84][83]