We're joined by John Lvalo, US homebuilders analyst at UBS. John, good to see you. >> Thanks for having me.>> I mean, a lot of moving parts in terms of what drives housing demand and supply, I guess. U quarter point. You think that's enough to excite consumers or is that part of the process of rebuilding it.>> I actually think the most important thing is rate stabilization. So, we're at 6.15% as Diana said, that's most important. Now, to the extent that we get a cut today and the long end of the curve follo ...

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Now to decision 2025 and some new polls place Democratic nominee Zoran Mdani in the lead for the New York City mayoral race with less than two months now until November's general election. But last night his closest rival, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, disputed Monny's popularity. The majority of New Yorkers do not agree with Mandami. They are not socialists. Why does he say you can win? Well, there's two different things. Saying I can win means you're reading the polls. That's what that means. Uh ...

Gen Z's Views on Success and Parenthood - Gen Z defines success through various factors, including fulfilling careers, homeownership, and emotional stability [1] - A notable gender gap exists, with men who voted for Trump ranking having children as most important, while women who voted for Harris ranked it as least important [2] - Despite differing views on having children, Gen Z members cite affordability as a significant barrier [3] Economic Factors Influencing Family Planning - Affordability is a major concern, with some individuals feeling unable to support themselves, let alone children [4][5] - Financial stability is seen as a prerequisite for bringing children into the world [6] - The US fertility rate in 2024 dropped to an all-time low of less than 16 kids per 10 women [6] Societal and Political Context - The Trump administration has explored ways to encourage women to have more children [6] - Experts argue that the cost of raising children is often overlooked in discussions about fertility rates [6]

All right, 30-year mortgage rates hitting their lowest level since last October. And that's giving a boost to home builders, Dr. . Horton, Toll Brothers, Lenar Palty, all up more than 2% today.For more on what's next for the housing trade, CBC's Diana Ol joins us from the Zelman Housing Summit in Boston with an exclusive interview with Ivy Zelman. Diana, thanks Melissa. Ivy, it was your day today.What an amazing day. Hundreds of people here to hear everything. And I'm going to take you back to 9:00 a.m. whe ...

Market Trends & Mortgage Rates - Yield fell below 4% for the first time in five months [1] - Mortgage rates saw a slight decrease of 2 basis points, reaching 6.27% [2] - The anticipation of a 25 or 50 basis points rate cut by the Fed next week may not significantly impact mortgage rates due to early pricing [4] Housing Market Affordability & Builder Strategies - Affordability is identified as the main headwind in the housing market, leading to mortgage rate buydowns [2] - 72% of builders are currently buying down mortgage rates [2] - Half of the rate buydowns exceed 100 basis points each, putting pressure on builder margins [3] - Builders are using rate buydowns to bring mortgage rates down to around 5% for buyers [4] - There's discussion around builders' preparedness and supply levels if rates decrease further [5] - Some builders are engaging in "spec building" (building without a buyer), while others prefer building on demand [5][6] - Concerns exist about builders potentially being stuck with unsold homes if affordability remains an issue [6] - New home supply is increasing, coinciding with a rising secondary supply [7] Housing Market Prices & Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that national housing prices may briefly go negative next year before rising again in 2027 [8] - Low-end buyers are struggling to enter the market, leading to high supply in that segment [9] - The luxury market sees more buyers but fewer homes available, pushing prices higher [10]

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Housing Market Trends - The housing market is undergoing a recalibration period after the pandemic boom, with a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium towards buyers [7][16] - A bifurcation exists in the housing market, with Sun Belt and Mountain West areas experiencing more softening compared to the Midwest and Northeast [19][20] - Existing home sales are approximately 13 million below the normal trend, indicating a significant constraint in the purchase side of the mortgage market [35] - Refinance activity is also experiencing a three-year drought, coinciding with the low purchase side, making it a tough period for the mortgage industry [42] Builder Strategies and Margins - During the pandemic, builders had significant pricing power and record profit margins, but they have since compressed margins to entice buyers [3][4][5] - Builders initially used mortgage rate buydowns as a successful lever, but are now resorting to outright price cuts in some areas like Florida and Texas [6][8] - Builder margins have seen compression year-over-year among the top 11 publicly traded home builders, although many still exceed pre-pandemic levels [10] - Some builders are choosing to protect margins by pulling back on the overall number of sales, leading to a softening in single-family housing starts [11] Factors Influencing the Market - The deceleration of migration to Sun Belt areas means local incomes must now support prices, which are detached from underlying incomes [21][22][23] - The "lock-in effect," where homeowners are hesitant to give up lower mortgage rates, is impacting both supply and demand in different regions [28][31] - Tariffs have not had a significant impact on build costs, as only 7% of residential construction materials are imported, and some key materials were excluded from tariffs [13][14][15] Open Door Analysis - Open Door overpaid for homes in boomtown markets and faces challenges in the higher interest rate environment with less housing market churn [45] - There is skepticism about the long-term viability of Open Door's core I-buying business, but opportunities exist for the company to leverage its scale and attention to move into other business avenues [45][46]