Is the "big, beautiful' India-US trade deal in trouble? https://t.co/wnT0c5VzMa ...

India is struggling to arrange a trade deal with America. One big question is whether Donald Trump can be trusted to stick to any agreement that gets signed https://t.co/jzOiIAI6nn ...

For months it has been assumed that India is a front-runner to strike an “interim” trade deal with America. Yet much of that early optimism has faded. The countries’ ties have been tested of late https://t.co/HfTjnBcFnu ...

Trade Deal Progress & Outlook - US and China announced a framework agreement on rare earth metals, seen as a positive step but not a comprehensive deal, more like a truce [2] - Comprehensive trade deal negotiations may take another 2-3 months, potentially reaching an agreement in the autumn, contingent on leaders' meeting [3] - China needs a trade deal due to slower GDP growth (estimated 3-4% vs stated 5%), declining foreign direct investment, and reliance on the US as its biggest export market [6][7] Tariff Rates & Sectoral Issues - Significant difference exists between 30% and 20% tariff rates for businesses [8] - US maintains 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, 50% on semiconductors, and 25% on lithium batteries [9] - Sectoral tariffs are unlikely to be removed due to China's attempts to dump excess manufactured products like lithium batteries, EVs, and solar panels [10] Competitive Landscape & Geopolitical Strategy - BYD's competitiveness in the auto industry is a concern, potentially dominating markets outside the US due to tariffs [10][11] - Aligning with European, Japanese, and South Korean allies is crucial to create leverage against China, as they share similar trade concerns [11][12][13] - High tariffs on allies diminish their incentive to join the US in pressing China on trade issues; Japan, EU, and US account for 60% of global GDP [12][13] TikTok & Technology Restrictions - TikTok is likely to be part of the trade deal or related to it, requiring Chinese government approval [17] - China alluded to the US reducing or dropping technology restrictions in exchange for the rare earth deal, but the US has not confirmed this [19]

Stock Futures Rise After Canada Drops Digital Tax To Salvage U.S. Trade Deal https://t.co/RcAgMIhIlp ...

Market Trends - Stock futures rise following Canada's decision to drop digital tax [1] - Canada's action aims to salvage the U_S trade deal [1]

The EU’s choices likely come down to accepting a lopsided trade deal with the US or pushing back and risking tariff escalation. Read the Brussels Edition https://t.co/kQuqeHkFqs ...

We are at the implementation stage, but we're at the end of that process and uh I hope that we can complete it um pretty soon now. Is that the same as within the two weeks by next Wednesday. Oh, I'm hoping that we will complete it um pretty soon.I mean, uh it's important that we do, but we're making good progress. There's nothing unexpected in the implementation and so um we haven't got any hiccups um or obstacles. Why isn't it done yet.because there are both sides agreed um what they would do in order to i ...

Rare Earth Minerals Dependence and Geopolitical Risks - The US is heavily dependent on China for rare earth minerals, creating a strategic vulnerability [1][2] - China's control over rare earth mineral licenses poses a risk to US manufacturing and defense industries [3] - Trade war initiated without securing rare earth mineral supply chains was a strategic oversight [2] - Reliance on Chinese materials for military hardware, especially for defense of Taiwan, is a critical concern [3] Alternative Sourcing and Strategic Partnerships - Brazil possesses 21 million metric tons of rare earth mineral reserves, representing 1/5 of global reserves, which is 10 times more than the US [5] - Vietnam has significant rare earth reserves and an integrated supply chain, making it a potential partner [7] - Australia holds 2 million metric tons of high-quality rare earth reserves, presenting another sourcing opportunity [8] - Developing domestic rare earth projects, such as the New Mexican project, is crucial for long-term security [8] Policy Recommendations - Urgently establish deals with Brazil, potentially waiving the 10% reciprocal tariff, to secure rare earth mineral supply [6] - Negotiate with Vietnam to eliminate tariffs in exchange for co-development rights to their rare earth resources [7] - Initiate "Manhattan Project" style initiatives in Brazil and Australia to refine and process rare earth minerals [6][8]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - Proposed spending cuts target SNAP and Medicaid, totaling approximately $560 billion over a decade [2] - Congressional Budget Office estimates 10.9 million fewer insured Americans due to these cuts, potentially impacting hospitals and healthcare systems [3] - Tax cuts favor the wealthy, while spending cuts disproportionately affect the poor [5] - Concerns raised about the impact on rural communities and vulnerable populations, including children reliant on Medicaid [7][8] - The bill may lead to privatization of government services and increased financial burden on states through block grants [9] Trade & Tariffs - China will impose a six-month limit on rare earth export licenses for US manufacturers [11] - US manufacturers rely on Chinese rare earth minerals for battery and auto production, creating a leverage point for China [13] - May inflation report was less than expected due to pre-tariff purchases and companies absorbing some tariff costs [16][17] - Economists anticipate that a 55% tariff against China will eventually lead to higher prices for consumers [17][18] Labor Market & Immigration - May jobs report showed a drop in the labor force, potentially reflecting fewer immigrants entering the workforce [19] - Concerns that immigration crackdown could limit job and economic growth [20] Consumer Impact - Consumers are starting to feel the impact of rising prices, particularly in rural communities with limited buying options [21][22][23]