And you can see right now the ten year at 422, the two year at 370. >> And now to the gusts that we've been talking about all morning President Donald Trump. Mr.. President welcome. Thanks for thanks for calling in. Wish you could be here in person, but we'll do this.>> Good morning Joe. >> We've been talking about the BLS and the employment numbers all morning long. Sometimes I know you get a chance to tune in. I want to bring up a chart.I hope you can see it, or else I'll describe it to you. This is the r ...

is is that the Trump administration is making the same mistake that the Biden administration made which was to basically you know remember we had Biden is working well now we have the golden age of American prosperity's return and Americans are not feeling that better to say we're we're working hard to put America on the right road rather than declaring premature victory and I think that's a big mistake for the White House and is likely to come back and and bite him in the midterm election >> that's uh Repu ...

Welcome back to Squawkbox. We are in Aspen, Colorado this morning with two former Treasury Secretaries uh who are uh the co-chairs of the Aspen Economic Group. Good morning to you.Hank Pollson is here. Tim Gner is here. Uh we just spoke to the president.Lots of questions about where our economy is today, what's going on with the tariffs, how you think about all this geopolitically, treasuries and everything. Um geopolitics, China. So I want to get to as much of this as we can.I just want to start though wit ...

Economic Concerns & Policy - The dismissal of a technocrat, the head of an agency, due to disagreement with official government statistics is considered dangerous for the economy and evidence-based policy [1] - The credibility of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is crucial for businesses, investors, and policymakers, as they rely on objective, non-political data [1] - There are concerns about the politicization of the BLS commissioner role, making it difficult to find qualified individuals willing to take the job [2] Economic Resilience & Challenges - The economy has shown remarkable resilience to shocks, including the pandemic and tariffs [3][4] - Despite the economy's strengths, millions of Americans face challenges related to rising healthcare and housing costs [5] Budget & Spending - The budget deficit is a significant concern, especially with Congress passing legislation that adds $3 to $4 trillion in debt over the next 10 years [6][8] - Tariffs are seen as a source of revenue but are not sufficient to bring down costs [7][8] - The recent bill includes cuts to Medicaid and SNAP to offset the cost of extended tax cuts [9] - Rebalancing domestic spending priorities is necessary [10]

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Government Data Integrity & Economic Impact - The report discusses concerns that the US federal government is manipulating economic data, specifically jobs reports, for political gain [3][4] - The action of firing or discrediting those who report unfavorable data is likened to authoritarianism and petulance [1][2] - Revisions to previously reported jobs numbers show a significant downward adjustment of 258,000, impacting Wall Street's view of the job market [9] - Wall Street is concerned about the reliability of government data and the potential for manipulation, which could have significant implications for investment decisions [15] - The primary concern for investors is the weakness of the job market and the overall economy, rather than the political arguments surrounding the data [15][16] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Data Transparency - The BLS commissioner typically sees the numbers shortly before they are published, after the data has been prepared and locked into the computer system [2] - The process of compiling the jobs report involves hundreds of people following detailed procedures, with automation playing a significant role [1][11] - Downward revisions of prior reports are a normal part of the data reporting process as more data becomes available [8][9] - There is no evidence to support the claim that the jobs numbers were wrong or manipulated prior to the revisions [7] - The transparency of the BLS's data policy is emphasized, suggesting that any attempts to manipulate the data would be easily detected [14]

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Economic Data & Accuracy - The author suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimation process is outdated and prone to errors [2] - Significant revisions in employment numbers indicate potential flaws in the government's economic estimates [2] - The author advocates for substantial improvements in governmental economic estimation methods to enhance accuracy [4] Potential Risks & Systemic Concerns - Manipulation of economic data by leaders to align with political objectives poses a threat to the functioning of the system, rule of law, and checks and balances [3] - Distorting the truth through manipulated numbers can erode confidence in the economic and political system [3] Leadership & Transparency - It is important for President Trump to clarify his reasoning behind potentially firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [4]

Economic Data & Trust - Concerns arise regarding the potential manipulation of economic data by government leaders, drawing parallels to situations in Greece, China, and Argentina where data fudging led to negative market consequences [3][4] - The integrity of economic statistics and the rule of law are crucial for maintaining foreign investment and business confidence in the United States [6][16] - A strong, independent civil service is essential for producing reliable economic data, a factor that has historically distinguished the US from other countries [6][7] Political Influence & Data Revision - Revisions to economic numbers are a normal occurrence across different presidential administrations [1] - Accusations of rigged numbers, particularly concerning pre-election job reports, are demonstrably false, as the report prior to the election was notably poor [12][13][18] - The politicization of economic data undermines confidence in the US economy and its institutions [15][16] Market Impact & Investor Confidence - Economists express fears that manipulating economic data could lead the US towards instability similar to Latin American countries [5] - Distorting economic data can trigger a revolt from world markets, as seen in Argentina [4] - If businesses and investors lose faith in the accuracy of US economic data and the rule of law, it could negatively impact investment decisions [7] Media & Disinformation - The media is criticized for allowing false statements regarding economic data to go unchallenged [17][18] - The spread of disinformation about economic numbers can mislead the public and erode trust in institutions [19] Job Market Analysis - The job report prior to the November election showed an increase of only 12,000 jobs, indicating a weak job market [13] - The disconnect between reported economic conditions and how people are "feeling it" (experiencing the economy) is a key issue [9]

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