Europe, as so often before, is getting squeezed by the US and China https://t.co/qEVbBbapSg ...

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitics is considered the single biggest risk for investors currently [3] - Key geopolitical issues include the war in Ukraine, the US-China tariff conflict, and the potential for China to take over Taiwan [3] - The US's strained relationships with traditional allies could impact the US dollar's reserve currency status [4] War in Ukraine - The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon because Vladimir Putin benefits from it as a means to maintain power by creating a foreign enemy [5][6] - Political solutions and offers may be ineffective because Putin's primary concern is staying in power [7] - The war is expected to continue for an extended period [8] Energy Market Leverage - Ending the war requires both weapons for Ukraine to strike Russian targets and addressing Russia's crude oil sales [10] - Since the war began, Russia has sold $400 billion of crude oil to China, India, and Turkey [10] - Targeting the eight refineries (two in China, four in India, two in Turkey) that purchase Russian oil could significantly impact Russia's revenue [10] - An ultimatum to these refineries to choose between doing business with the West or Russia could force them to buy from the West [11] - This could lead to Russian oil selling at $20 per barrel instead of $60, potentially forcing Putin to seek a ceasefire [12]

Geopolitics & International Relations - China is attempting to improve relations with its most challenging neighbor [1] - The report explores potential consequences if China's efforts to mend fences are unsuccessful [1]

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@HalBrands “We’re in phase 3 of the economic competition between China and United States,” says @halbrands.“That’s what happens when China develops a toolkit of its own ... and it’s now using it more aggressively than before.”https://t.co/IUezMFo1Z2 ...

China has spent two decades building a globe-spanning port network that offers it commercial reach and a strategic edge against rivals https://t.co/JVDFZFTy4a ...

US-China Trade Relations & Rare Earths - The US is trying to reduce its dependence on China for rare earths, while China is trying to jumpstart its economy [1] - The US exports rare earths to China, highlighting that the problem is refining, not reserves [3] - A short-term deal between the US and China could involve delaying Chinese controls on rare earth products and resuming US soybean exports to China, but this requires the US to concede something [7] - China may delay implementation of controls on rare earth products but will continue building up that mechanism and could expand to other supply chains like fine chemicals used in drugs [8] Supply Chain Vulnerabilities & Strategies - The US faces a serious long-term challenge across a broad range of supply chains [8] - Working with allies is crucial for the US to counter supply chain vulnerabilities quickly [9] - Australia can help the US on rare earths, and Japan has technology and experience dealing with Chinese embargoes [10] - The US long-term policy should focus on supply chains rather than trade balances and tariffs [11] China's Long-Term Strategy - China has a long-term strategy to build up its production capacity, especially in advanced technology, to exert coercive pressure on other countries [15][16] - China's goal is to become more important globally, allowing it to exert more pressure on the US and other countries [16]

Company Performance & Strategy - BU's core e-commerce search business ad revenue has contracted due to the housing crisis impacting consumer confidence and domestic consumption [1] - BU's AI-driven cloud business accounts for 20% of revenue and grew approximately 27% year-over-year in Q2 [1][2] - The company's ChatGPT version, Ernie, is receiving positive feedback and surpassing other models [3] - BU is considered a key player in China's AI development and a potentially essential stock [4] Market Dynamics & Investment Sentiment - The Chinese economy is described as being in "okay shape," reflected in company balance sheets and net income statements [8] - Chinese tech stocks are primarily influenced by geopolitical and media narratives rather than fundamentals [8][9] - US institutional investors are significantly underweight in China, while investors from Europe and Asia are increasing their investments [9][11] - A potential Xi-Trump summit could improve the geopolitical narrative and encourage US investment in Chinese tech [10] Risks & Concerns - One analyst holds a strong sell rating on Baba (Alibaba) and anticipates BU will follow a similar pattern [5] - Alibaba's stock performance suggests a potential 30-40% decline over six months, making it a poor time for tactical investment in Chinese stocks [6] - US-China trade tensions continue to pose an overhang on Chinese tech investments [5] Policy & Future Outlook - China's upcoming 5-year plan emphasizes science and technology, aiming for technology independence [13][14] - Companies like Baidu and Alibaba are expected to benefit from this focus due to their data, cloud computing, and AI capabilities [15] - A potential deal between President Trump and Xi could significantly alter the media and geopolitical narrative surrounding Chinese tech [15][16]

Geopolitical Strategy - America needs to expand its icebreaker fleet to counter Russia and China in the high north [1] - Collaboration with Finland is crucial for quickly expanding America's icebreaker fleet [1]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇳 President Trump says he will keep 'massive' tariffs on India until they stop buying Russian oil. https://t.co/Xg7mKaYSFG ...

Casualties litter the Donbas amid a bloody Kremlin push https://t.co/tjCCzGuboV ...