Market Overview - The S&P 500 is perceived as expensive, but earnings growth may justify high valuations if it continues [2] - The concentration of the S&P 500 index is notable, with the top 10 holdings representing 40% of the index, similar to historical levels [2] - The current bull market is characterized by a significant run in large-cap stocks, while small and mid-cap stocks have lagged [7] Commodities - Precious metals have seen substantial gains this year: Gold (+51.3%), Silver (+64.7%), Platinum (+73%), Palladium (+59.1%) [16] - The S&P GSCI commodity index is only up 1.3% due to the significant weight of crude oil, which is down 15% [14] - Other commodities like coffee (+22.6%) and cattle (+21.9%) have performed well, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [16] Real Estate - Domestic real estate has struggled with the DJ US Real Estate index up just 3.8%, while international real estate has outperformed at +20.7% [18] - The recent Fed rate cut did not positively impact long-term rates, which have increased by about 15 basis points since the last meeting [18] Fixed Income - Bonds have produced positive returns for the third consecutive year, with corporate bonds being the second-best performing domestic bond index [20] - International bonds, particularly emerging market bonds, have performed well, benefiting from currency gains [20] International Markets - Non-US markets have outperformed US markets significantly, despite the imposition of tariffs by the US [9][11] - The outperformance may be attributed to capital flows and a perceived risk associated with the US dollar [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and publications, personal analysis, and opinions intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Trading Strategy - The strategy utilizes support and resistance levels to identify key market areas before price movements [1] - It aims to find areas where supply outweighs demand or demand outweighs supply, visually represented on a chart [3][4] - The analysis helps determine if a price will continue in a trend or break out into a new trend [5] - Drawing accurate trend lines on charts is crucial for actionable trading strategies, identifying areas where price bounces repeatedly [7][10] - Parallel channel tools can be used to anticipate potential continuation of a trend after a breakout, identifying high-probability areas for demand to outweigh supply [23][25] Risk Management - The strategy involves setting stop-loss orders outside of identified trend lines to contain risk if the trend doesn't follow the anticipated direction [31] - Traders can leave take-profit orders open-ended to allow profits to run while capping the risk [31] - Reducing risk over time by trailing stop-loss orders based on new highs or lows is a key component [34][39] Performance and Examples - The presenter claims to have had one of the best trading months, with over $20,000 in profit in one week [1] - Examples are provided of trades where risk was managed, and profits were allowed to run, resulting in significant returns [41][45] - One example shows a trader achieving a 34x risk factor on a single trade, resulting in a 473% return [41]

Group 1: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - KDP is currently considered to be in the "buy zone," suggesting it is a good time to build a position in KDP stock [1] - Institutional trends are identified as a robust upside catalyst for KDP [1] - The projected 10-week outcomes for KDP stock range from $27.12 to $27.37, with price clustering around $27.22 [8] Group 2: Texas Instruments (TXN) - TXN exhibits a significant spread between the highest analyst price target and the average outlook, at 30.2%, indicating a lack of consensus among analysts [10] - The forward 10-week return profile for TXN stock ranges from $159 to $169, with price clustering expected around $167 [11][12] - The current structure of TXN stock is in a 3-7-D formation, expanding the expected risk-reward spectrum to $157.50 on the low side and $175 on the high [11] Group 3: Carvana (CVNA) - CVNA reported revenue of $5.65 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.08 billion, but fell short on guidance, leading to a 14% stock decline [13] - The projected 10-week outcomes for CVNA range from $290 to $365, with price clustering around $319 [14] - CVNA is currently in a 6-4-D sequence, with a risk tail around $290 and a reward tail potentially exceeding $400, indicating a significant upside opportunity [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the extensive experience and diverse background of the founder of Bern Factor LLC, emphasizing a strong foundation in both quantitative and qualitative analysis, as well as technical analysis [1] Group 1: Company Background - Bern Factor LLC is an independent research and publishing firm located in Virginia, founded by an individual with nearly 40 years of investing and analysis experience [1] - The founder has a background as a former CPA and became a CFA charter holder in 2000, showcasing a strong professional credential in finance [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The founder's investment philosophy is influenced by notable figures such as Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, indicating a value-oriented approach to investing [1] - The founder has a broad perspective on macroeconomics and detailed operational insights, having worked in various sectors including retail, factory work, and management roles [1] Group 3: Experience and Expertise - The founder has over 20 years of experience in both public and private sectors, providing a unique perspective that combines theoretical knowledge with practical experience [1] - The founder's early involvement in investing dates back to the 1960s, indicating a long-term commitment to understanding market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided may not be real-time or accurate, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] - The article warns that trading decisions should be made at the individual's full responsibility, and reliance on the information provided is discouraged [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research before making investment decisions and to avoid investing in instruments that are not fully understood [1]

Core Insights - The Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) employs a model-driven methodology focused on capital appreciation with limited drawdowns, utilizing technical analysis to identify long-term trends and major reversals [1][6] Performance Summary - TACK achieved a total return of 4.20% in September, outperforming the Russell 1000 Equal Weight Index (0.97%) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (3.56%) [2] - For Q3, TACK returned 6.68%, compared to 6.07% for the Russell 1000 Equal Weight Index, benefiting from exposure to outperforming ETFs like GLDM and XLK [4] - Year-to-date return for TACK in 2025 stands at 10.76%, ahead of the benchmark return of 9.31% [2] Sector Contributions - Key holdings contributing to TACK's outperformance include SPDR® Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), Technology Sector SPDR® (XLK), Communication Services Sector SPDR® (XLC), Utilities Sector SPDR® (XLU), and Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR® (XLY) [3] - TACK's strategy involved removing exposure to underperforming sectors such as Consumer Staples (XLP), Energy (XLE), and Materials (XLB), which has positively impacted performance [4] Positioning and Strategy - As of Q3, TACK maintained a disciplined positioning with approximately 87.2% equity exposure, complemented by allocations to Treasuries and gold [5] - The model will continue to drive exposure into Q4, with no changes made for October as technical indicators remain positive for the same sectors held in September [6] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 Index in 2025 is led by a concentrated group of megacap stocks, particularly in technology and communication services, which may impact major indices due to a recent loss of momentum [7] - Defensive sectors like utilities are expected to gain favor in a weaker market environment, while technology remains a focus for long-term investment [8] Risk Management - TACK's methodology mitigates single-cohort risk by anchoring decisions to sector trend momentum rather than market capitalization, refreshing sector exposure on a monthly basis [9][10]

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim is a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

My invalidation on bullishness is weekly closes below $98k.Technically the monthly structure goes all the way down to $74k but ain’t no way I’m holding all the way down there.Lose $100k essentially and we reevaluate. ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing all-time highs, described as an "unendable beast" that continues to rise despite concerns about buying at high levels [2][3] - There is a sentiment of waiting for an intermediate pullback before making significant trades [3] Company Analysis: Super Micro (SMCI) - Super Micro has seen a performance increase of over 40% in the last six months, but recently lowered its guidance for the first quarter, causing concern among investors [5] - The strategy involves buying implied volatility leading up to earnings on January 14 and selling before the earnings announcement [6] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish setup with the stock making higher highs and higher lows, currently in a cup and handle pattern [9][10] - Key resistance is at $62.50, with support around the 200-day moving average at approximately $42-$43 [12][13] Company Analysis: Astera Labs - Astera Labs is down about 0.5% following a downgrade from Barclays to equal weight, with a price target unchanged [14] - The focus is on a call spread to the upside going into earnings on January 14, targeting a breakout above the 50-day simple moving average [15] - The stock is currently trading around $169, approximately 12.5% below the $190 level where bullish options activity has been noted [21] Company Analysis: Reddit - Reddit's earnings are expected to be significant, with a call calendar strategy being employed due to the disparity in implied volatility [22][23] - Historical performance shows that Reddit's stock has risen in four out of six earnings reports since its IPO [24] - Technical analysis reveals an expanding megaphone pattern, with potential resistance around the $250 mark and support near the 200-day moving average [27][30]