Economic Growth and Projections - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) upgraded its growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.5%, but downgraded projections for the rest of the decade to 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.9%, and 1.5% each year to 2030 [1] - The average household is expected to be £850 poorer in 2029-30 compared to 2024-25, indicating a disappointing outlook for living standards [1] - The central forecast for real household disposable income (RHDI) per person in the UK is projected to grow at only 0.2% to 0.3% per year after this year, significantly lower than the long-run average [2][4] Employment and Income - Unemployment is expected to rise faster than previously anticipated, peaking at 5%, with the jobless rate only falling back to 4.1% in the final months of the decade [13] - Real terms hourly pay for workers is projected to remain 0.5% below its 2009-10 level by the end of the decade, reflecting a long-term squeeze on pay [3] Taxation and Fiscal Policy - The tax burden is forecasted to rise to a post-war high of 38.3% of GDP, driven by significant personal tax increases, including freezing income tax thresholds [21][22] - The OBR noted that the top half of earners pay 90% of all income tax, highlighting the increasing reliance on higher earners to fund public services [27][28] Government Spending - The OBR described the recent Budget as including substantial spending increases, with an average rise of £33 billion per year over the next five years, primarily to fund higher benefits [29] - By the end of the decade, public spending is expected to settle at just over 44% of GDP, which is five percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels [30] Economic Outlook and Challenges - The OBR warned that the UK may not return to previous growth rates, citing a significant and long-lasting slowdown in productivity growth since the 2008 financial crisis [8] - The Chancellor's plans to manage debt and spending face challenges, with debt servicing costs projected to rise from £113.7 billion this year to £140 billion in five years [15][16]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY) decreased by -0.08% after reaching a 17-month low in the November MNI Chicago PMI, indicating weaker economic activity [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -6,000 to a 7-month low of 216,000, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [3] - September capital goods new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, increased by +0.9% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of +0.3% [3] - The November MNI Chicago PMI dropped by -7.5 to 36.3, marking the steepest contraction in 17 months and falling short of expectations of 43.6 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed Beige Book presented mixed signals, with some contacts expressing concerns about slower activity while others showed optimism among manufacturers [4] - Markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [4] Eurozone Developments - The EUR/USD pair rose to a 1-week high, increasing by +0.23%, driven by comments from ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic regarding balanced risks to economic growth and inflation [5] - Uncertainty surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian peace plan is limiting euro gains, as European Commission Vice President Kallas indicated a lack of signs from Russia indicating a desire for peace [6] - Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [6] Potential Leadership Changes - The dollar is under pressure due to reports that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, with his dovish stance potentially being bearish for the dollar [2]

So finally, Chancellor, you've effectively just broken your promise made after the last budget not to raise taxes again. Will you now rule out more tax rises, whether directly or by stealth, this Parliament. So last year I had to close the black hole in the public finances left by the Conservatives. And in the budget last year I lived within the forecast set by the bill.They have now changed their forecasts around productivity and they are very clear that's nothing to do with the policy of this government. ...

There are enough soft patches in the economy to cause investor angst and market volatility. But @edwardnh argues holiday spending points to overall growth that's still strong and that will keep the bull market going. https://t.co/KzauAx8UjJ ...

Ukraine’s government and holders of the nation’s GDP warrants — debt instruments with payouts linked to economic growth — have resumed negotiations to potentially restructure the securities, according to people familiar with the matter https://t.co/0f6VZ1B4VF ...

New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods surged in September and shipments of these goods increased solidly, cementing economists' expectations that economic growth accelerated in the third quarter. ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) highlights "elevated" risks to financial stability in the euro area, driven by stretched asset valuations and fiscal challenges in certain countries [1] Group 1: Financial Resilience - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasizes the importance of financial resilience amid current economic conditions [1] - The ECB's bi-annual Financial Stability Review indicates potential sharp adjustments in asset valuations, which could impact investor confidence [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Fiscal challenges in France and other EU nations are identified as significant factors that may test investor confidence [1] - The ECB's assessment suggests that these fiscal issues could have broader implications for the stability of the euro area [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The ECB provides an outlook for euro-area economic growth, indicating that current conditions may pose risks to this growth trajectory [1] - The discussion reflects concerns about the overall economic environment in the euro area and its potential impact on financial markets [1]

Germany is danger of underperforming on growth and faces a longer-term struggle to achieve meaningful expansion unless it pursues “bold” reforms, the IMF says https://t.co/GtupudDEQh ...

Trade Relations - The UAE has quickly risen to become sub-Saharan Africa's second-largest trade partner [1] Investment Focus - The UAE is seeking food security through investments in sub-Saharan Africa [1] - The UAE aims to invest in sub-Saharan Africa due to the region's rapid economic growth rates [1]

Sri Lanka’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged for a third straight meeting to help inflation return to target while supporting the economy’s growth trajectory https://t.co/N191ESMp0k ...