Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The market is focused on the implications of the September 17th events and recent economic data [1] - The speaker interprets recent labor market trends as showing renewed business optimism after initial uncertainty [2][3] - There's a belief that inflation is trending closer to 3% rather than 2%, with the Open Market Committee viewing inflation as a significant risk [4] - Companies have adapted to supply chain disruptions, potentially mitigating the impact of tariffs and other shocks [6][7] - As inflation approaches the dual mandate target, policy rate decisions become more complex [9][10] - The current policy rate is considered modestly restrictive, but the speaker is seeking evidence of economic inhibition [11] - The goal is to achieve a soft landing to 2% inflation without causing economic disruption [12] Federal Reserve Communication & Framework - The Federal Reserve is reviewing its framework, incorporating lessons from the 2020 pandemic cycle, with a focus on improving transmission of its policies [14][15] - A consistent framework is deemed important for collaboration and consensus among the 19 members, while maintaining agility [17][18] - There are ongoing debates about the appropriate level of Federal Reserve communication, balancing transparency with avoiding market speculation [19][20] - The Federal Reserve aims to improve public understanding of its actions and the dual mandate [21] Federal Reserve Independence & Public Perception - The Federal Reserve maintains its independence from political influence, focusing on its economic mandate [22] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is tied to fulfilling its monetary policy responsibilities [25] - Conversations with people in the district provide real-time feedback that informs policy discussions [27] - The Federal Reserve is focused on ensuring safe and sound banks, payment systems, and valuable research [28] - The Federal Reserve differentiates between the understanding of monetary policy by business/finance professionals and the general public, emphasizing the importance of communicating the dual mandate [29][30]

As if the pressure wasn't high enough, says @johnauthers, a new front is opening in the Battle of the Fed. (via @opinion) https://t.co/voYxLrjD4b ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Concerns - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is divided, with concerns about tariffs, inflation, jobs, and the labor market [1] - Tariffs may drive inflation, but also hurt jobs, creating conflicting pressures on the Fed regarding rate cuts [2] - More committee members are concerned about inflation and unemployment, but there were two dissents by governors, indicating unusual circumstances [2] - Fed Chair Powell wants more data and to wait before making decisions, increasing the risk of waiting too long [3] - The market anticipates an easing cycle with multiple rate cuts, and Powell may not be able to control this expectation even with a single cut [5] Bond Market Dynamics - There's a divergence in bond markets, with short-term rates (five years and under) driven by central banks and long-term rates driven by fiscal policy [7] - A buyer strike on 30-year bonds exists due to concerns about fiscal policy, which the Fed likely cannot fix [7] Neutral Rate & Monetary Policy Tightness - The Fed funds rate is slightly higher than the 2-year yield, suggesting a moderately tight monetary policy [11] - The Fed's uncertainty about the neutral rate (estimated at 3%) contributes to its reluctance to act quickly [11][13] - The market has priced in an easing cycle with a terminal rate below the neutral rate, but current policy is somewhat tight because the Fed is unsure of the neutral rate [12][13] Powell's Upcoming Speech - Powell is expected to discuss the Fed's challenges and accomplishments since 2018, as well as the Fed's new 5-year framework [8] - Powell is expected to talk very little about policy for the next few meetings [9] - If Powell opens the door to future policy changes, the market will react significantly [10]

Fed's Monetary Policy & Impact - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have maintained interest rates too low for an extended period, followed by an abrupt tightening of monetary policy [1][3] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, recognizing their significant directional impact [1] - The discussion revolves around the concept of a neutral interest rate, suggesting that the prolonged period of near-zero percent interest rates is unrealistic and unsustainable [2] Housing Market & Mortgage Rates - The expectation of mortgage rates returning to 3% is deemed unlikely [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy is seen as negatively impacting the housing market, as many refinanced at 3%, creating reluctance to move with current rates around 55%-65% [4] Confidence in Central Banks - There is a lack of faith and confidence in global central banks [4] - Central bankers are viewed critically, potentially ranking high among the villains of the 21st century [5] - Despite overall skepticism, Jerome Powell is acknowledged for doing a good job in the recent 6-9 months, aligning with market perceptions [5] Interest Rate Control & Market Influence - The Federal Reserve primarily controls short-term interest rates but lacks control over longer-term rates [6] - A previous rate cut in September, when ten-year yields were at 36%, was followed by a 1% (100 basis points) increase in those yields [5]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook says she will not be "bullied" to step down. ...

President Donald Trump has opened another front in his campaign to bend the Federal Reserve to his will, calling on Fed Governor Lisa Cook after a staunch ally called for an investigation of her mortgages https://t.co/KYoDsmwxSo ...

Steve Leeman kicking off our 3-day coverage of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium with a very special edition of the CNBC Fed Survey. And boy, you got a beautiful shot there this morning, Steve. Yeah, and we just had some live elk there.Did you see that. Uh the Fed meets in Jackson Hole this year, uh Andrew, amid unprecedented presidential pressure for a rate cut, unsettled questions about the next Fed chair, and tariff inflation. Uh the CNBC Fed survey special Jackson Hole edition found respondents believ ...

LIVE NOW - The Fed Isn’t in Charge of the Dollar. The Eurodollar System IsWhat if everything you thought about the dollar was wrong?Monetary historian @JeffSnider_EDU joins Bankless to deliver a radical thesis: the Federal Reserve doesn't control the U.S. dollar; a sprawling offshore system of interbank ledger money does.This hidden network, known as the Eurodollar system, is the real engine of global finance, and it’s been breaking down for over 15 years.--------------TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro5:30 Who’s Actuall ...

Traders are piling into an options wager that relies on a dovish Federal Reserve slashing interest rates by more than a quarter-point next month. That's raising the stakes for Jerome Powell's speech on Friday https://t.co/EVl6nQJdI5 ...

Gold held a small decline ahead of a key address by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week, which may give fresh clues on the central bank’s monetary path https://t.co/JMXkfUqdet ...