IF THESE RECIPIENTS OF CHINESE GOODS FEEL THE HEAT, WE MAY STILL HAVE THE RISK OF A TRADE WAR MOVING FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER, SO OUR MESSAGE TO EVERYBODY IS BECOME AN TO CHINA, BE CAREFUL. DO NOT PROVOKE OTHER COUNTRIES TO SEE YOU AS A THREAT. HASLINDA: THE IMF IS CALLING FOR CALM AND RESTRAINT AS BEIJING AND WASHINGTON TRADE SHARP BARBS, ESCALATING FEARS OF A DEEPENING TRADE WAR AND GLOBAL FALLOUT FROM TARIFFS.LIVE FROM SINGAPORE, THIS IS "INSIGHT" WITH HASLINDA AMIN WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER INTO STORIES THA ...

Market Overview - Pre-market earnings are flat-to-down, with the Dow down 16 points, S&P 500 up 1 point, and Nasdaq down 4 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is down 2 points [1] Employment Data - Weekly Jobless Claims numbers are absent for the second consecutive week; the last reported figure showed a drop from 264K to 218K, a decrease of 46K [2] - Continuing Claims have stabilized around 1.93 million, below the 13-week range of 1.94-1.975 million [2] Retail Sector Insights - CNBC's NRF Retail Monitor report for September indicates a decline in retail and restaurant sales by 0.7%, following a 0.5% increase in August; core retail sales also fell by 0.5% from a previous increase of 0.3% [3][4] - The year-over-year growth for retail sales has decreased to 5.4% for headline and 5.7% for core, down from 6.8% and 6.7% respectively a month ago, indicating a healthy spending level despite the recent declines [4] Q3 Earnings Reports - Delta Air Lines reported Q3 earnings of $1.71 per share, exceeding the $1.52 analysts' expectations, with revenues of $16.67 billion, surpassing the Zacks consensus by 5.61% and up from $15.68 billion year-over-year [5][6] - Delta has raised its Q4 earnings guidance to a range of $1.60-1.90 per share, leading to an 8% increase in shares during pre-market trading [6] - PepsiCo reported Q3 earnings of $2.29 per share, slightly above consensus estimates, with revenues of $23.94 billion, outperforming expectations by 0.25%; however, shares are down 8% year-to-date [7] - Tilray reported fiscal Q1 earnings of $0.00 per share, exceeding expectations of -$0.03, with revenues of $210 million, up from anticipated $206.8 million; non-medical cannabis revenues increased by 12% year-over-year, resulting in an 18% rise in shares during pre-market activity [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing upward momentum, with all three major indices opening in the green, led by the Dow and Nasdaq [5][10] - The S&P 500 recently broke a seven-day winning streak, indicating some downward momentum [6] - The U.S. dollar has come under pressure year-to-date, down more than 9%, but showed a slight increase of about 0.2% this morning [7][24] Debasement Trade - Investors are increasingly turning to gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin due to waning confidence in the government and fears of inflation, a trend referred to as the "debasement trade" [3][12] - Gold futures have crossed $4,000 per ounce, reflecting a more than 6% increase over the past 10 days, while Bitcoin has risen approximately 9% in the same period [7][32] - The simultaneous rise of both gold and Bitcoin is unusual, as gold is typically seen as a safe haven while Bitcoin is viewed as a riskier asset [27] Federal Reserve Insights - Goldman Sachs has stated that while there is no current stock market bubble, bubble-like activity is being observed in stock valuations and market concentration [11] - Federal Reserve officials are focusing on private sector data due to the government shutdown, with a 94% chance of a rate cut expected at the end of the month [18][19] - The Fed's potential rate cuts are seen as a positive catalyst for the stock market, encouraging investors to remain long on stocks [20][22] Company-Specific Insights - Nvidia is investing up to $2 billion in Elon Musk's AI company, XAI, as part of a larger $20 billion funding round, indicating strong interest in AI technologies [9] - Constellation Brands reported a 7% decline in beer sales and a 19% drop in wine and spirits sales, attributed to various factors including immigration policies and a slowing job market [39][42] - Despite challenges, Constellation Brands remains optimistic about its brand performance, having gained market share in 49 of 50 markets year-to-date [46]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season is expected to show strong growth for the S&P 500, with a consensus earnings growth forecast of 8.0%, reflecting an 80-basis-point improvement from previous lows [1] - Key sectors driving this growth include technology, energy, and financials, with expectations for continued positive performance into Q4 [2] Technology Sector - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) is projected to have the highest earnings growth at 21%, with revisions up approximately 550 basis points since the cycle low [3] - NVIDIA is a primary driver of this growth, with 95% of analysts raising earnings estimates and an expected earnings growth of over 50% [4] - Other significant contributors include Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, and Oracle, collectively representing 50% of the Information Technology Sector [4] Utilities Sector - The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) is forecasted to have the second-strongest growth at 18%, with estimates rising over 225 basis points since the start of Q3 [8] - Companies like Constellation Energy are expected to grow earnings by more than 15%, with nearly 60% of analysts raising their targets during the reporting period [8] - The sector is benefiting from increased power consumption driven by AI and electric vehicle demand, leading to modernization investments [7] Financial Sector - The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is expected to grow by 11.5% in Q3, supported by strong net interest income and consumer resilience [11] - Leading companies such as Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan are well-positioned to leverage AI technologies for growth [12] - The sector's consensus forecasts have improved by 400 basis points from earlier lows, indicating a positive outlook [11]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expresses an optimistic outlook on the stock market and the US economy, while acknowledging potential risks ahead [1][2]. Market Predictions - The stock market may experience a drawdown in the next few years, as historical trends suggest that markets often run ahead of their potential during periods of technological excitement [4][5]. - The S&P 500 has rebounded significantly, up 15% year-to-date, but Solomon anticipates a possible market correction within the next 12 to 24 months, which should not be surprising given the recent performance [6][7]. Winners and Losers - The current bull market is expected to create a mix of winners and losers, similar to the internet boom of the 1990s, where only a few companies thrived while many faded away [8][10]. - Solomon emphasizes that large investment cycles typically result in a distribution of capital that yields both attractive returns and significant losses [11].

Economic Data - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to +3.8% (q/q annualized), exceeding expectations of +3.3% [1] - U.S. durable goods orders rose unexpectedly by +2.9% m/m in August, against expectations of -0.3% m/m [1] - Core durable goods orders, excluding transportation, increased by +0.4% m/m, surpassing expectations of -0.1% m/m [1] - Existing home sales fell by -0.2% m/m to 4.00 million in August, slightly better than the expected 3.96 million [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by -14K to a two-month low of 218K, compared to the expected 233K [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indices closed lower, with CarMax (KMX) dropping over -20% after disappointing Q2 results [2] - Chip stocks, including Arm Holdings (ARM) and ON Semiconductor (ON), fell more than -2% [2] - Oracle (ORCL) declined over -5% following a Sell rating initiation by Rothschild & Co. Redburn [2] - Intel (INTC) surged over +8%, becoming the top gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 due to potential investments or partnerships with Apple and TSMC [2] Tariff Announcements - President Trump announced new sectoral tariffs effective October 1st, including a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceuticals unless manufactured in the U.S. [3] - Heavy trucks will face a 25% tariff, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities a 50% duty, and upholstered furniture imports a 30% tax [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed officials expressed concerns about the economy, with some advocating for quick interest rate cuts due to inflation nearing the 2% target [5] - Rate futures indicate an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting [6] European Market Reactions - Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose +0.62% as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs and awaited U.S. inflation data [10] - The European Commission secured a 15% ceiling on U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs [10] - German business daily reported potential tariffs of 25% to 50% on Chinese steel and related products [10] Japanese Market Developments - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed lower, influenced by U.S. tariffs and losses on Wall Street [13] - Pharmaceutical stocks in Japan declined following the announcement of a 100% tariff on U.S. imports [13] - Core inflation in Tokyo held steady but remained above the Bank of Japan's target, indicating potential for future interest rate hikes [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Market Overview - Stocks are mostly seeing gains with the Dow roughly flat, S&P 500 up about 0.4%, and NASDAQ up about 0.7% [2][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield is down two basis points to 4.04%, while the 30-year yield is down to 4.66% [4] Sector Performance - Mega-cap stocks are leading the rally, particularly in communication services (Alphabet), consumer discretionary (Tesla), and technology (chip stocks) [5][6] - Defensive sectors are underperforming, with consumer staples down about 1% and healthcare off about 0.8% [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with discussions on the potential for additional cuts later in the year [9][10] - Inflation is currently about 3% while job growth has weakened, raising concerns about the Fed's dual mandate [10][11] Company-Specific News - Texas Instruments shares are down about 3% due to an anti-dumping investigation launched by China targeting American semiconductor companies [49][51] - CoreWeave shares are up 8% after closing a $6.3 billion order with Nvidia, highlighting strong demand for AI infrastructure [55][56] - Union Pacific's stock is up modestly after Citigroup upgraded it to buy, citing improved clarity on its merger with Norfolk Southern [58][61] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the stock market does not necessarily need a rate cut to move higher, as earnings growth remains strong [23] - There is a focus on yield curve steepeners as a favorable risk-reward trade amid expectations of further rate cuts [32]

Market Trends & Sentiment - The market's current highs, reminiscent of pre-peak levels in November 2021, are accompanied by a "memeish mood," but it's less extreme than in 2021 [1] - Investors are taking profits from tech stocks and seeking temporary alternative investments while the market is at all-time highs [1] - A return to retail investors' favorite stocks like Nvidia and Tesla is expected in about a month, leading to a cooling off of meme stocks [1] Portfolio Strategy & Diversification - The current market environment makes diversification a hard sell, but it's a good time for concerned investors to exit before potential market corrections [1][2] - International stocks, including international ETFs, are a decent bet, especially in the tech sector, given the global spread of AI development [2][3][4] - Emerging Asia, particularly China, is considered a speculative investment due to data reliability and legal restrictions for American investors [6][7][8] AI Investment Landscape - The AI trade is expected to continue due to significant investments from companies like Meta and Microsoft, each investing $80 billion annually, and Alphabet increasing its capital expenditure by $10 billion [5] - The US dominance in AI tech is unlikely to continue, with the EU, Latin America, and Asian countries also making advancements [4]