Market Overview - Glassnode's latest report indicates that current market conditions resemble the early stages of the 2022 bear market, also referred to as crypto winter [1] Buyer Behavior - The elevated risk of top buyer capitulation is highlighted, with the spot price falling below the 0.75 quantile, currently trading near $96,100, putting over 25% of BTC supply underwater, similar to the onset of the 2022 bear market [2] - The total supply in loss has reached 7.1 million bitcoin, at the high end of the 5 million to 7 million range observed in early 2022 [3] Capital Flows - Despite market pressures, capital continues to flow into bitcoin, with a realized cap net change of approximately $8.69 billion per month, significantly lower than the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month [3] Investor Sentiment - Off-chain trends indicate a softening investor sentiment, with ETF demand weakening, as IBIT experiences its longest negative streak since January 2024, totaling over $2.7 billion in outflows over the last five weeks [4] - Spot market activity is deteriorating, with cumulative volume delta (CVD) trending negatively, particularly on Binance, while the Coinbase premium is expected to roll over again after a brief positive period [5] Derivatives Market - Derivatives data shows a decline in risk appetite, with open interest falling from November into December, indicating reduced willingness to take on risk following the October 10 liquidation flash crash [6] - Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral, with occasional negative prints, suggesting a more balanced and less speculative trading environment [6] Options Market - Traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, with a cautious stance observed in the options market where upside is being sold rather than pursued [7] - Earlier in the week, put buying was dominant as bitcoin approached $80,000, but as prices stabilized, flows shifted towards call activity as investor fears subsided [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing its first yearly decoupling from stocks, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics as the cryptocurrency sector continues to face a pullback [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The current decline in Bitcoin can be partially attributed to profit-taking by long-term crypto holders, suggesting a strategic shift among investors [1] Group 2: Future Predictions - Aya Kantorovich, co-CEO and co-founder of August, shares insights on market movements and provides predictions for the cryptocurrency landscape in 2026 [1]

Bitcoin's decoupling from stocks. What's it telling you. Look, I think without a doubt, the last three weeks have been painful.You know, we've seen one and a half times higher volatility in the last three weeks than we've seen in 2025 total. And a lot of that has to do with a number of things. One, there's implications outside of just macro, which is, you know, more global and geopolitical.And we're seeing a lot of bit of that. We're also seeing, you know, some decoupling into the weekend where we are seein ...

Core Insights - MSTR is experiencing a decline in yield and faces challenges due to a potential crypto winter, which may impact its quarterly coupon payments related to its preferred shares [1] Group 1: Company Overview - MSTR operates as a treasury company focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and is currently dealing with headwinds affecting its financial performance [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The equity market is characterized by daily price fluctuations that can lead to significant long-term wealth creation or destruction [1] - Pacifica Yield is targeting long-term wealth creation by investing in undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Market Sentiment - Industry sources suggest that a "Crypto Winter" is not anticipated by a significant number of users [1]

Core Insights - The crypto market is experiencing significant downturns, leading investors to question the potential for recovery and the timing of any sector rotation back into crypto assets [1][2] - A notable valuation gap exists between the crypto market and the stock market, which could signal a potential shift in investment focus [3][4] Market Valuation - The S&P 500's forward-12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 23.1, significantly above historical averages, indicating an expensive stock market [4] - This high valuation may prompt value-sensitive investors to seek cheaper assets, potentially leading to a rotation into the crypto sector [4] Crypto Market Performance - The global crypto market cap has decreased by approximately 10% in 2025, despite earlier gains driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [5] - Bitcoin has seen a 10% decline over the past 12 months, losing most of its year-to-date gains amid recent market sell-offs [5] Investor Sentiment - Fear is prevalent in the market, with concerns about the possibility of another crypto winter [6] - The valuation of cryptocurrencies remains complex and evolving, making it challenging for investors to identify mispriced assets [6] Trends and Opportunities - Despite the current poor performance of crypto, there are slow-moving trends that may improve conditions for major crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and smart contract platforms like Solana and Ethereum [9] - The stock market's high valuation, especially in the tech sector, combined with the crypto sector's struggles, sets the stage for potential capital reallocation back to crypto [8]

Market Trends - TD Cowen indicates Strategy's bitcoin premium is approaching "crypto winter" lows [1]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping to approximately $88,000, a decrease of over 20% in the last 30 days [2] - The total crypto market capitalization has fallen to $3.04 trillion, down 4.82% in the last 24 hours, with 95% of cryptocurrencies showing losses [2] - The Fear and Greed Index has reached a low of 16, indicating extreme fear among investors, the lowest level since April [2] Investor Sentiment - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are diminishing, contributing to negative market sentiment [3] - Bitcoin ETFs have seen record outflows, with BlackRock alone experiencing $523 million in outflows in a single day [3] - Traders are increasingly seeking hedges against a potential crypto winter anticipated in 2026 [3] Market Predictions - On the Myriad prediction market, 73.3% of traders are betting that Bitcoin will drop to $85,000, while only 26.7% believe it will rise to $115,000 [4] - For Ethereum, traders estimate a 62% chance that its price will decline to $2,500 from its current level of around $2,800 [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price opened at $92,911 but fell over 4% to $88,605, marking a fresh seven-month low and dropping below the critical $90,000 psychological level [5] - The formation of a "death cross" has been confirmed, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing below the 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish market trend [7] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 38.25, suggesting a strong downtrend with significant momentum behind the current selloff [8]

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