Core Insights - Waste management stocks are considered defensive investments, providing steady cash flows and dividend potential while being influenced by regulations, commodity prices, and sustainability trends [2] Group 1: Waste Management Companies - Waste Management, Inc. offers environmental solutions including waste collection, transportation, and landfill operations in the U.S. and Canada [3] - GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management and environmental services across Canada and the U.S. [4] - Custom Truck One Source, Inc. specializes in equipment rental and sales for various infrastructure-related industries, including waste management [5] - Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc. delivers concrete pumping and waste management services in the U.S. and the U.K. [6] - Avalon Holdings Corporation offers waste management services to various sectors, including hazardous and nonhazardous waste disposal [7] - LanzaTech Global focuses on regenerating industrial waste into circular products using renewable energy [8] - ESGL Holdings Limited provides waste solutions by transforming industrial waste into circular products [8]

Market Overview & Strategy - The market is considered expensive, especially among top companies, suggesting a rotation into defensive stocks [3] - A defensive strategy within equities involves shifting from expensive high-flyers like the MAG7 to sectors like healthcare and telecom [6] - The analyst favors healthcare and telecom for potential outperformance due to depressed valuations and potential interest rate cuts [6][7] Company Specifics & Earnings - Thermofisher is expected to beat earnings, with potential for increased earnings growth [7][8] - Thermofisher trades at approximately 24-25 times forward earnings, which is in line with valuation but not deeply undervalued [8][9] - Thermofisher's consistency in earnings and diversification make it a desirable investment, with less volatility than biotech [10] Economic Outlook & Influences - CPI data is expected later in the week, with some anticipating it to be around 3%, above the inflation target [11] - Rate cuts are viewed as a bonus rather than a necessity, though lower long-term and mortgage rates would be beneficial [11][12] - Strong earnings are expected across the S&P 500, with expectations raised rather than lowered heading into the earning season [13] - Productivity gains, potentially from AI implementation, are expected to contribute to growth across various companies [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Banking Sector - **Performance**: Both H and A-share China banks underperformed the broader market indices, with the MSCI China Banks Index down by 4.1% in the past month compared to a 2.5% decline in the MSCI China Index [2][8][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Credit Growth**: New RMB loans in September totaled RMB 1.29 trillion, missing expectations of RMB 1.39 trillion and down RMB 300 billion year-over-year. This decline was attributed to a reduction in short-term household loans and discounted bills as banks aimed to protect their net interest margins (NIM) [3][5]. - **Total Social Financing (TSF)**: New TSF reached RMB 3.53 trillion, slightly exceeding expectations but down RMB 230 billion year-over-year. The increase was driven by off-balance sheet financing, which recorded RMB 358 billion [3][5]. - **Household Deposits**: There was a net increase of RMB 2.96 trillion in household deposits in September, while non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) experienced an outflow of RMB 1.06 trillion, indicating a shift in deposit behavior likely due to seasonal effects [3][5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The banking sector has seen a notable shift with approximately RMB 1 trillion in household deposit outflows in July-August, but September numbers suggest a reversal, likely due to banks competing for deposits at quarter-end [4][5]. Investment Outlook - **Defensive Stocks**: There is a constructive outlook on defensive, high-yield China bank stocks, especially in light of recent geopolitical uncertainties and tariff risks. The dividend yield for H-share large banks has improved to 5.5%-6% following a ~10% pullback over the past three months [5][6]. - **Preferred Stocks**: Recommended stocks include CITIC-H, CCB-H, BOC-H, and ICBC-H, which are viewed as strong defensive plays [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: The banking sector's performance has been lagging compared to other Asian peers, indicating potential undervaluation and investment opportunities [12][14]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes a valuation table showing various banks' ratings, prices, target prices, implied upside, and dividend yields, highlighting the potential for recovery in the sector [15][6]. - **Economic Indicators**: The report discusses macroeconomic indicators such as M2 and M1 growth rates, which have shown slight deceleration, indicating broader economic trends that could impact banking operations [3][5][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the performance and outlook of the China banking sector, along with specific insights into credit growth, market sentiment, and investment recommendations.

Company Overview - Kimberly-Clark is a manufacturer of consumer staples, including products like Kleenex, Huggies, and various types of toilet paper [2][8] - The stock has experienced a decline of 20% over the last 52 weeks and 9% year-to-date, currently trading at approximately 16.5 times earnings with a dividend yield of 4.2% [2][3] Investment Thesis - The company is viewed as a defensive play due to its essential product offerings, which are less sensitive to economic fluctuations [3][11] - Despite a general aversion to other investment options, stocks are still considered preferable to cash and bonds, with Kimberly-Clark being highlighted as a strong choice for the fourth quarter [3][4] Market Position and Competitiveness - Kimberly-Clark's products are seen as having less economic sensitivity compared to competitors like Clorox, as consumers are less likely to downgrade from premium products to generic options within the Kimberly brand [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain steady demand for its products, regardless of economic conditions, due to their essential nature [2][10] Sector Comparison - While the utility sector is also considered defensive and has seen significant gains, Kimberly-Clark is preferred due to its lower valuation and consistent demand [4][6][7] - The utility sector is trading at higher earnings multiples (around 23 times earnings) with less attractive growth prospects, making Kimberly-Clark a more appealing option [6][7]

Core Insights - The analyst has a strong background in equity research and investment analysis, with a focus on the U.S. equity market and consumer staples sector, indicating a belief in the resilience of defensive stocks for long-term investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Analyst Qualifications - The analyst is a certified FMVA and FPWMP, which provides expertise in financial statement analysis, valuation modeling, and investment portfolio construction [1]. - Participation in the CFA Research Challenge has equipped the analyst with practical experience in equity analysis and industry research [1]. - The analyst holds a degree in Finance from Alexandria University, graduating in 2024 with a CGPA of 3.6, showcasing a solid academic foundation [1]. Group 2: Professional Experience - The analyst has worked with a confidential client, preparing investment reports across various sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials, enhancing the ability to evaluate companies across diverse industries [1]. - In 2023, the analyst joined AIESEC, further developing leadership, communication, and teamwork skills through global exchange and project collaboration [1].

Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumer sentiment remained low in October, with a preliminary reading of 55, down 0.1 points from September's 55.1, but higher than the consensus estimate of 54.1 [4][11] - Consumers' one-year inflation expectations decreased to 4.6% in October from 4.7% in the previous month, while long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.7% [5][6] Market Conditions - The ongoing government shutdown has led to market volatility, with all three major indexes ending in negative territory for the week [7][11] - Investors are seeking stability in low-beta, defensive stocks amid concerns about inflation and the labor market [2][11] Recommended Stocks - **Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 7.5%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.74, and a dividend yield of 1.97% [9][8] - **CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.6%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.57, and a dividend yield of 2.24% [13][12] - **Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 0.9%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.53, and a dividend yield of 1.67% [15][14] - **Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 25.3%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.57, and a dividend yield of 4.39% [17][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of conservative stock portfolios amid market uncertainties and the potential for significant gains in defensive stocks. Market Outlook - The equity market outlook remains positive following US Federal Reserve rate cuts in a growing economy, with stocks reaching record highs despite concerns about macroeconomic indicators [2] - Bank of America strategists believe that big tech stocks still have room for growth despite substantial gains over the past two years [2] Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello advises investors to be "responsibly bullish" and to utilize the options market for risk management, cautioning against chasing market trends [3] - Nomura's Charlie McElligott emphasizes the need for hedging portfolios as more investors pursue stock market rallies, suggesting that maintaining hedges is crucial even if they negatively impact performance [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell's reluctance to support aggressive rate cuts introduces risks in a market at record highs, contributing to uncertainty regarding the pace of future rate cuts [5] - The division within the Federal Reserve has become a catalyst for market uncertainty, prompting a shift in focus towards conservative investments that can withstand market fluctuations [5] Conservative Investments - Conservative investments typically involve defensive stocks that perform well regardless of economic conditions, providing stability during market volatility [6] - The article identifies stocks that are likely to outperform in various economic conditions and are favored by elite hedge funds [9] Stock Recommendations - **3M Company (NYSE:MMM)**: Aims for 25% margin expansion by 2027 through innovation and operational efficiency, with a goal of generating $1 billion in growth over the next three years [11][12][13] - **Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY)**: Focuses on leadership in cell therapy, having treated 13,000 patients and working on significant therapies for autoimmune diseases [16][18][19] - **PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP)**: Participating in initiatives to promote regenerative agriculture, aiming to transition 10 million acres by 2030, aligning with sustainable practices [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive stocks such as Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE), and Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) for income investors during periods of market volatility, highlighting their stable earnings and dividends [1][17]. Singapore Exchange (SGX) - SGX is the sole stock exchange operator in Singapore, benefiting from strong recurring income from derivatives and clearing services, and high trading volumes even in volatile markets [2]. - In FY2025, SGX reported its highest revenue and net profit since listing, with net revenue growing 11.7% year on year to S$1.3 billion, driven by growth in equities, currencies, and commodities [3][4]. - The Equities – Cash segment saw a nearly 19% increase in net revenue YoY, while Equities – Derivatives and FICC segments grew by 13.8% and 8.6% respectively [4]. - Total dividend for FY2025 rose by 8.7% YoY to S$0.375 per share, with plans to enhance dividends by S$0.0025 each quarter until FY2028 [5][6]. Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE) - STE's share price reached all-time highs in August 2025, with revenue in 1H2025 growing 7% YoY to S$5.9 billion and net profit increasing nearly 20% to S$403 million [7]. - The order book reached a new high of S$31.2 billion as of 30 June 2025, supported by S$9.1 billion in new contracts secured in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - STE declared an interim dividend of S$0.08 per share for 1H2025, with plans for a total dividend of S$0.18 per share for 2025 and a new policy to pay out about one-third of year-on-year net profit increases as incremental dividends [10]. Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) - Singtel's financial performance for FY2025 showed group revenue steady at S$14.15 billion, while underlying net profit rose 9.3% to S$2.47 billion [11]. - A significant one-time gain from the partial divestment of its Comcentre headquarters led to a net profit surge of over 400% to S$4.02 billion [12]. - Total capital expenditure is projected at S$2.5 billion for FY2026, with S$0.8 billion allocated for investments in data centers, AI, digitalization, and satellites [14]. - Singtel proposed a total ordinary dividend of S$0.17 per share for FY2025, a 13.3% increase from the previous year, and aims to pay out a core dividend of 70% to 90% of its underlying net profit [14][15].

Core Insights - The S&P consumer staples sector is currently underperforming, being at or near the bottom of performance lists during a time of economic uncertainty, with 35 out of 50 stocks in the sector largely ignored by investors this year [1][2] Performance Summary - As of September 18, the consumer staples sector has declined by 2.8% over the past month and 2% year-over-year, while the S&P 500 has increased by 3% and 19.2% respectively [2] - This trend of rejection often leads to high-quality companies being negatively impacted alongside underperforming peers [2] Investment Opportunities - The analysis identifies three "diamonds in the rough" within the consumer staples sector that are recommended for long-term total return investors, based on positive returns over multiple time frames and dividend payments [3] Company Spotlight: Walmart - Walmart has shown strong performance with respective returns of 3%, 9%, 15%, and 32% over the past 1 month, 3 months, year-to-date, and 1 year, along with a current dividend yield of 0.9% [4] - As the largest stock in the consumer staples sector, Walmart accounts for 10.4% of the index, supported by its extensive retail presence and commitment to low prices [4][5] - Despite its strong performance, Walmart's stock is currently trading at a high valuation of 37 times expected earnings over the next 12 months [7]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 recently reached an all-time high, raising concerns about stock valuations being too high [2] - The market-weighted index is heavily influenced by a small number of technology companies [2] Group 2 - iREIT+HOYA Capital focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1]