Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumer sentiment remained low in October, with a preliminary reading of 55, down 0.1 points from September's 55.1, but higher than the consensus estimate of 54.1 [4][11] - Consumers' one-year inflation expectations decreased to 4.6% in October from 4.7% in the previous month, while long-term inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.7% [5][6] Market Conditions - The ongoing government shutdown has led to market volatility, with all three major indexes ending in negative territory for the week [7][11] - Investors are seeking stability in low-beta, defensive stocks amid concerns about inflation and the labor market [2][11] Recommended Stocks - **Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 7.5%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.74, and a dividend yield of 1.97% [9][8] - **CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.6%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.57, and a dividend yield of 2.24% [13][12] - **Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 0.9%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.53, and a dividend yield of 1.67% [15][14] - **Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 25.3%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.57, and a dividend yield of 4.39% [17][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of conservative stock portfolios amid market uncertainties and the potential for significant gains in defensive stocks. Market Outlook - The equity market outlook remains positive following US Federal Reserve rate cuts in a growing economy, with stocks reaching record highs despite concerns about macroeconomic indicators [2] - Bank of America strategists believe that big tech stocks still have room for growth despite substantial gains over the past two years [2] Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello advises investors to be "responsibly bullish" and to utilize the options market for risk management, cautioning against chasing market trends [3] - Nomura's Charlie McElligott emphasizes the need for hedging portfolios as more investors pursue stock market rallies, suggesting that maintaining hedges is crucial even if they negatively impact performance [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell's reluctance to support aggressive rate cuts introduces risks in a market at record highs, contributing to uncertainty regarding the pace of future rate cuts [5] - The division within the Federal Reserve has become a catalyst for market uncertainty, prompting a shift in focus towards conservative investments that can withstand market fluctuations [5] Conservative Investments - Conservative investments typically involve defensive stocks that perform well regardless of economic conditions, providing stability during market volatility [6] - The article identifies stocks that are likely to outperform in various economic conditions and are favored by elite hedge funds [9] Stock Recommendations - **3M Company (NYSE:MMM)**: Aims for 25% margin expansion by 2027 through innovation and operational efficiency, with a goal of generating $1 billion in growth over the next three years [11][12][13] - **Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY)**: Focuses on leadership in cell therapy, having treated 13,000 patients and working on significant therapies for autoimmune diseases [16][18][19] - **PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP)**: Participating in initiatives to promote regenerative agriculture, aiming to transition 10 million acres by 2030, aligning with sustainable practices [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive stocks such as Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE), and Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) for income investors during periods of market volatility, highlighting their stable earnings and dividends [1][17]. Singapore Exchange (SGX) - SGX is the sole stock exchange operator in Singapore, benefiting from strong recurring income from derivatives and clearing services, and high trading volumes even in volatile markets [2]. - In FY2025, SGX reported its highest revenue and net profit since listing, with net revenue growing 11.7% year on year to S$1.3 billion, driven by growth in equities, currencies, and commodities [3][4]. - The Equities – Cash segment saw a nearly 19% increase in net revenue YoY, while Equities – Derivatives and FICC segments grew by 13.8% and 8.6% respectively [4]. - Total dividend for FY2025 rose by 8.7% YoY to S$0.375 per share, with plans to enhance dividends by S$0.0025 each quarter until FY2028 [5][6]. Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE) - STE's share price reached all-time highs in August 2025, with revenue in 1H2025 growing 7% YoY to S$5.9 billion and net profit increasing nearly 20% to S$403 million [7]. - The order book reached a new high of S$31.2 billion as of 30 June 2025, supported by S$9.1 billion in new contracts secured in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - STE declared an interim dividend of S$0.08 per share for 1H2025, with plans for a total dividend of S$0.18 per share for 2025 and a new policy to pay out about one-third of year-on-year net profit increases as incremental dividends [10]. Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) - Singtel's financial performance for FY2025 showed group revenue steady at S$14.15 billion, while underlying net profit rose 9.3% to S$2.47 billion [11]. - A significant one-time gain from the partial divestment of its Comcentre headquarters led to a net profit surge of over 400% to S$4.02 billion [12]. - Total capital expenditure is projected at S$2.5 billion for FY2026, with S$0.8 billion allocated for investments in data centers, AI, digitalization, and satellites [14]. - Singtel proposed a total ordinary dividend of S$0.17 per share for FY2025, a 13.3% increase from the previous year, and aims to pay out a core dividend of 70% to 90% of its underlying net profit [14][15].

Core Insights - The S&P consumer staples sector is currently underperforming, being at or near the bottom of performance lists during a time of economic uncertainty, with 35 out of 50 stocks in the sector largely ignored by investors this year [1][2] Performance Summary - As of September 18, the consumer staples sector has declined by 2.8% over the past month and 2% year-over-year, while the S&P 500 has increased by 3% and 19.2% respectively [2] - This trend of rejection often leads to high-quality companies being negatively impacted alongside underperforming peers [2] Investment Opportunities - The analysis identifies three "diamonds in the rough" within the consumer staples sector that are recommended for long-term total return investors, based on positive returns over multiple time frames and dividend payments [3] Company Spotlight: Walmart - Walmart has shown strong performance with respective returns of 3%, 9%, 15%, and 32% over the past 1 month, 3 months, year-to-date, and 1 year, along with a current dividend yield of 0.9% [4] - As the largest stock in the consumer staples sector, Walmart accounts for 10.4% of the index, supported by its extensive retail presence and commitment to low prices [4][5] - Despite its strong performance, Walmart's stock is currently trading at a high valuation of 37 times expected earnings over the next 12 months [7]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 recently reached an all-time high, raising concerns about stock valuations being too high [2] - The market-weighted index is heavily influenced by a small number of technology companies [2] Group 2 - iREIT+HOYA Capital focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1]

Market Overview - Wall Street has continued its bull run in 2025, with the S&P 500 recording 20 all-time highs year to date, including five in August alone [1] - Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. equities, with an average decline of 0.7% since 1950, and a more pronounced average decline of 2% over the last 10 years [2] Investment Recommendations - It is advisable to invest in low-beta, high-yielding stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank, including Assurant Inc. (AIZ), Hasbro Inc. (HAS), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT), and Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI), all of which have a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [3][10] Assurant Inc. (AIZ) - Assurant is focused on both inorganic and organic growth strategies, expecting adjusted EBITDA to increase modestly in 2025, driven by improved performance in Global Housing and growth in Global Lifestyle [13] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 5.7% and an earnings growth rate of 5.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 7.6% over the last 30 days [15] Hasbro Inc. (HAS) - Hasbro is concentrating on high-margin segments such as Wizards, Licensing, and Digital, which are expected to support bottom-line growth [16] - The company anticipates that digital gaming and licensing partnerships will contribute about 25% of corporate revenues by 2027, with an expected revenue growth rate of 6.6% and an earnings growth rate of 21.5% for the current year [19] The Mosaic Co. (MOS) - The Mosaic is expected to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, with strong grower economics and crop commodity prices driving global fertilizer demand [20] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 16.4% and an earnings growth rate of 60.1% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 13.2% over the last 30 days [22] Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT) - Virtu Financial's diversified business model supports sustainable long-term growth, with ongoing cost-control initiatives improving adjusted net margins [24] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 18.9% and an earnings growth rate of 33.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 17.9% over the last 60 days [25] Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI) - Houlihan Lokey is a global investment bank specializing in mergers and acquisitions, capital solutions, and financial advisory services [26] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 13.1% and an earnings growth rate of 21.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 6.7% over the last 60 days [27]

Economic Overview - U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 97.4 in August from 98.7 in July, indicating a decline of 1.3 points, with short-term expectations for income, business conditions, and employment also falling to 74.8 [4][5] - Concerns about the economy have been exacerbated by tariffs imposed by President Trump, which have raised inflation fears and impacted consumer confidence [5][6] - A weak labor market, characterized by slow job additions, has further fueled recession fears, despite low layoffs and unemployment rates [7] Investment Recommendations - Given the economic uncertainty, it is advisable to invest in low-beta defensive stocks from the utility and consumer staples sectors, which include Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO), Fortis, Inc. (FTS), Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN), Ingredion Incorporated (INGR), and Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) [2][10] - These stocks are characterized by a beta greater than 0 but less than 1, indicating lower volatility, and they also offer high dividend yields [3] Company Profiles - **Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)**: Engaged in regulated natural gas distribution and storage, serving approximately 3.3 million customers across eight states. Expected earnings growth rate is 7.2% for the current year, with a beta of 0.75 and a dividend yield of 2.09% [8][9] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Operates in the electric and gas utility sector, primarily in Canada and the Caribbean. Expected earnings growth rate is 4.6% for the current year, with a beta of 0.48 and a dividend yield of 3.57% [10][11] - **Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)**: Focuses on natural gas distribution systems and pipeline projects, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Expected earnings growth rate is 25.3% for the current year, with a beta of 0.59 and a dividend yield of 4.72% [12][13] - **Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)**: Provides ingredient solutions specializing in nature-based sweeteners and starches, serving various sectors. Expected earnings growth rate is 6.7% for the current year, with a beta of 0.77 and a dividend yield of 2.47% [14] - **Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)**: A leading provider of death care services in the U.S., offering a range of funeral and burial services. Expected earnings growth rate is 23.4% for the current year, with a beta of 0.86 and a dividend yield of 1.03% [15][16]

Core Insights - The analyst has a strong background in equity research and investment analysis, with a focus on the U.S. equity market and consumer staples sector, indicating a belief in the resilience of defensive stocks for long-term investment opportunities [1] - The analyst holds certifications such as FMVA and FPWMP, which enhance their ability to analyze financial statements and build valuation models [1] - Participation in the CFA Research Challenge provided practical experience in equity analysis and industry research, showcasing the analyst's capability to present investment recommendations effectively [1] Company and Industry Focus - The analyst has prepared investment reports across various sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials, demonstrating versatility in evaluating companies across different industries [1] - The consumer staples sector is highlighted as a particular area of interest, suggesting that it may present stable investment opportunities due to its defensive nature [1] - The analyst's educational background includes a degree in Finance with a strong academic performance, which supports their analytical capabilities in the investment field [1]

Accounting Changes & Gross Margins - Walmart's gross margins are expected to appear strong in the upcoming report due to a change in accounting methods related to tariff costs [1] - The impact of this accounting change is expected to be temporary and reverse over time [2][4] - Analysts understand the reason for the margin increase and will not project it forward, expecting it to normalize in future quarters [3][4] Consumer Spending & Retail Performance - Overall retail sales remain strong, indicating continued consumer spending [6] - Consumers are prioritizing spending on essential needs rather than discretionary wants [7] - Defensive retailers, particularly those in auto parts and grocery, are outperforming discretionary retailers [5][7][8] Defensive vs Discretionary Retailers - Defensive retailers like Dollar General, O'Reilly Auto, Walmart, Kroger, and BJ's are performing well [5][7][8] - Ulta Beauty is an outperformer in the discretionary sector due to easing competitive pressures [5][9][10] - Most defensive retailers tracked (10 out of 12) have outperformed the market year-to-date [11] - Costco, considered a defensive retailer, has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, with its stock up approximately 7% [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies and achievements of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 39 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and the development of a system called "Victory Formation" for identifying stocks based on supply/demand imbalances [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke suggests using a diversified approach by owning at least 50 well-positioned stocks to achieve regular stock market outperformance [1] - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles focus on deep value candidates or stocks that are experiencing a significant reversal in technical momentum to the upside [1] - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles discuss positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading action [1] Group 2: Performance and Recognition - Franke was consistently ranked among the top investment advisors nationally during the 1990s and was ranked 1 in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of over 60,000 portfolios [1] - As of June 2025, he was ranked in the Top 4% of bloggers by TipRanks® for 12-month stock picking performance based on suggestions made over the last decade [1] Group 3: Risk Management - Franke recommends investors implement stop-loss levels of 10% or 20% on individual stock choices to manage risk effectively [1]