When it comes to the tilt of jobs versus the Fed's mandate on inflation and price stability, which do you think it should tilt more towards given what we've seen so far. >> Well, look, one of the very rare things would be to cut rates when you have 3% inflation or slightly under 3% wherever the number is. We always want to keep uh 1% real rate.So, this may be as far as you can push it right now. And maybe that's what the Kansas City Fed uh is concerned about. We'll have to see when we get a better briefing ...

Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.And that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. In the near term, risks to inf ...

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing Industry Overview - The briefing primarily discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, focusing on employment, inflation, and interest rates. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75% to 4% to support maximum employment and stable prices [1][4][6]. 2. **Economic Growth**: GDP growth was reported at 1.6% for the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year, with stronger consumer spending noted as a key driver [2][49]. 3. **Labor Market Conditions**: The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job gains slowing significantly and the unemployment rate remaining low at 4.3% [2][54]. There are concerns about declining labor force participation and immigration affecting job availability [3][38]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation remains elevated, with total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rising 2.8% over the past year. Core PCE prices also increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4][24]. 5. **Risks to Employment and Inflation**: The balance of risks has shifted, with downside risks to employment increasing and upside risks to inflation remaining [5][58]. The FOMC is navigating a challenging situation where one goal may conflict with the other [5][58]. 6. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC plans to cease the reduction of aggregate securities holdings as of December 1, indicating a shift towards a more neutral policy stance [6][8][21]. 7. **Diverse Views within the Committee**: There are strongly differing views among committee members regarding future policy actions, particularly concerning the potential for further rate cuts in December [10][36][58]. 8. **Impact of Tariffs**: Higher tariffs are contributing to inflation in certain goods, but the FOMC believes these effects may be short-lived and should not lead to ongoing inflation problems [4][25][40]. 9. **Investment in AI and Infrastructure**: Significant investments in AI and infrastructure are noted, with the FOMC indicating that these investments are not particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [27][28][48]. 10. **Consumer Spending**: Despite a cooling labor market, consumer spending remains strong, particularly among higher-income consumers, which is a significant driver of economic growth [48][49]. Other Important Considerations - **Data Availability**: The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed some important economic data, complicating the FOMC's ability to assess the labor market and inflation accurately [2][19][50]. - **Long-term Inflation Expectations**: Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation goal, despite current elevated levels [4][24]. - **K-shaped Economic Recovery**: The economy is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, where higher-income consumers are faring better than those at the lower end of the income spectrum [32][55]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the Federal Reserve's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, monetary policy decisions, and the challenges faced by the committee.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned markets on Wednesday not to assume another rate cut is guaranteed in December, saying the Fed governors had “strongly differing” views on how to proceed amid rising inflation risks and a softening labor market. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it,” Powell said during his post-meeting press conference. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% t ...

In the near-term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate with downside risks to employment having increased in recent months. The balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another ste ...

Inflation & Employment Risks - Near-term inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks lean towards the downside [1] - Navigating the tension between employment and inflation goals presents a challenging situation with no risk-free policy path [1] Monetary Policy Stance - The framework emphasizes a balanced approach in promoting both sides of the dual mandate [2] - Downside risks to employment have increased in recent months, shifting the balance of risks [2] - The company judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance [2] - The company remains well-positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments [3] - The appropriate stance of monetary policy will be determined based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks [3] - The committee continues to face two-sided risks in its discussions [3] Future Policy Decisions - Strongly differing views exist about how to proceed in December [4] - A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion [4] - Policy is not on a pre-set course [4]

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate. With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another st ...

Good afternoon. Um, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our achieving our dualmandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September.Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling and inflat ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @GregDaco @AllisonSchrager The two top questions for Fed policymakers, according to @GregDaco:1⃣ Is the pass-through of tariffs going to be a one-time shock?2⃣ What’s happening on the employment front?https://t.co/P24la0jgKR ...

CONCLUDED Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Last Updated: 4 hours ago Read the October FOMC Statement Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks t ...