We've defeated the Biden inflation nightmare and achieved explosive new economic growth. The Atlanta Fed is predicting an astounding 5.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. And that's despite the fact that we had a Democrat shutdown. We would have had that number would have been 7%, which is a number nobody's ever heard of.And we've had we've been given great national security because of tariffs. And we've also been given unprecedented income because of tariffs. And part of the income that we gave $12 billio ...

Worried about the AI bubble? A new report suggests AI was not the main leg propping up the economy in 2025. Macro Research Board Partners, an economic research platform, published a report in January that contradicted the popular belief that AI is the main driver of GDP and that the "narrowly concentrated" and "extremely vulnerable" growth would tank the entire economy once it falters."In short, without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imp ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is perceived to be strong, with expectations of significant demand due to recent tax cuts taking effect this year [4] - Predictions for GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 range between 3% to 4%, with some estimates suggesting up to 4% growth due to substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus [9][10] - The Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates in the near term, indicating a continuation of current economic policies [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has re-engaged in quantitative easing at a rate of $40 billion per month, contributing to a stimulative economic environment [5] - There is pressure for further stimulus in an election year, which may influence economic policies and growth [5] - Real interest rates are currently below 1%, suggesting a highly accommodative monetary policy [5] Inflation Concerns - Inflation is anticipated to rise following the election, influenced by ongoing fiscal stimulus unless measures are taken to mitigate it [11] - The relationship between high growth rates and inflation is acknowledged, with concerns that inflation may follow economic growth more slowly but could become challenging to control once it accelerates [11]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's economy is projected to experience a modest rebound in 2026 after three years of stagnation, with a forecasted GDP growth of 1% according to the savings banks association DSGV [1] Economic Outlook - The forecast indicates a recovery phase for Germany's economy, suggesting a shift from the previous stagnation period [1] - The anticipated growth rate of 1% reflects a cautious optimism regarding economic conditions in the coming years [1]

Asia Chart Alert Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: A sectoral breakdown of Q4 GDP growth The supply-side breakdown shows the economic slowdown in Q4 was broad-based across sectors. Research Analysts Asia Economics Hannah Liu - NIHK hannah.liu@nomura.com +852 2252 1082 Ting Lu - NIHK ting.lu@nomura.com +852 2252 1306 Fig. 1: Real GDP growth by major sector Note: The "other services" sector includes seven industries: scientific research & technical services; water, environment & public ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the macroeconomic environment in the United States, particularly regarding GDP growth, consumer spending, labor market conditions, inflation, and monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: - GDP growth in 2025 was forecasted at 2.4% on a Q4/Q4 basis, surpassing the consensus of 2.0%. Actual growth was 2.5% from Q1 to Q3, with an expected 2.4% in Q4 despite a 1.2 percentage point drag from a government shutdown [4][3]. 2. **Consumer Spending**: - Consumer spending growth was anticipated to be 2.3%, slightly above the consensus of 2%. Actual growth was 2.2% from Q1 to Q3, with an expected increase to 2.6% in Q4, maintaining the forecasted average [5][5]. 3. **Labor Market Trends**: - Contrary to expectations, the labor market softened, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.25% to 4.4%. This was attributed to slower job growth despite a decrease in immigration and labor supply growth [6][6]. 4. **Inflation Rates**: - Core PCE inflation was expected to fall below 2.4% year-on-year. The actual rate was projected at 2.98% in December, with tariffs contributing 62 basis points to this rate. The decline in inflation was linked to labor market rebalancing [8][7]. 5. **Federal Reserve Monetary Policy**: - The Federal Reserve was expected to cut rates by at least 50 basis points, which occurred with three cuts throughout the year. The median neutral rate estimate remained stable at 3%, contrary to expectations of an increase [11][12]. 6. **Immigration Trends**: - Net immigration was expected to remain positive but fell from an annualized pace of 1.5 million to around 0.5 million by year-end, slightly below previous forecasts [14][14]. 7. **Tariff Policies**: - The anticipated universal tariff was not implemented; however, substantial reciprocal tariffs were imposed, raising the effective tariff rate significantly more than expected. The effective tariff rate is projected to decrease slightly in 2026 due to new deals [15][17]. 8. **Primary Deficit**: - It was expected that Congress would not meaningfully reduce the primary deficit, which was confirmed as tariff revenues did not sufficiently offset new tax cuts [19][19]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis reflects on the unexpected outcomes of fiscal policies under the Trump administration, particularly regarding their impact on monetary policy and economic indicators. - The report emphasizes the complexity of predicting economic trends due to external factors such as tariffs and immigration policies, which have significant implications for the labor market and inflation [1][2].

Economic Outlook - ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts real GDP growth will exceed 7%, attributing this to AI-driven productivity gains and calling it "the biggest entrepreneurial explosion in history" [1][4] - Wood forecasts that inflation will turn negative, driven by technology-enhanced productivity [4] AI Adoption and Corporate Restructuring - Companies must undergo complete restructuring around AI to avoid becoming irrelevant, with a strong emphasis on CEO leadership in this transformation [1][2] - Wood cites ARK's own implementation of Palantir Technologies as a successful example of AI adoption leading to productivity gains [2] Bitcoin Market Projection - Wood projects Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $16 trillion by 2030, a significant increase from below $2 trillion currently [5] Youth Unemployment and Entrepreneurship - Youth unemployment for ages 16-24 is at 12%, with an average duration of 24 weeks, but Wood believes this will not lead to persistent unemployment due to demographic shifts [6][7] - Wood encourages young people to leverage AI to create businesses that address unmet needs while seeking employment [7]

President Trump's call that the S&P 500 (^GSPC) will see another massive rally is starting to look fuzzy. "If you get double the stock market, it really will reflect the economy doubling," Ben Emons, founder and chief investment officer of FedWatch Advisors, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. Emons warned that for the market to deliver another year of outsized, double-digit gains, the US economy would effectively need to catch fire. Trump sees the market's future differently. At the Davos World Economic ...

Hello everyone. Treasury Secretary Scott Besset has revealed his master plan for the US economy. People are up in arms over the Greenland controversy and the New York Stock Exchange. The big dogs, they just announced a new platform that proves crypto is winning. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before [Music] we get into today's episode, I need your help. We currently have 42,000 subscribers on YouTube, but my goal is 1 million. Hit the subscribe button and let's get into today's show. No ...

Very well. Um, welcome everybody. Welcome to Journal House and a big welcome to to our audiences that are joining us online.But above all, a big welcome to Dario Amade, the chief exec of Anthropic. >> And thank you for having me. >> Not at all.So Dario, um, we're at Davos. There's a lot going on, but I wanted to start with a a big picture question, which I'll characterize like this. It feels to me that this time last year, everybody was very excited about AI and everyone was talking about what AI can do, it ...