the unemployment rate ticking up for a fourth straight month to 4.6%. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, Alian's chief economic advisor. And Muhammad, the listen, I'm having a little bit of trouble with this jobs report.I don't know about you, just in terms of getting that clear picture of what is really going on. >> So, we should really look through this report. >> Okay.>> There are so many distortions and I think Sher Pal was absolutely right when he said we shouldn't take anything out of it. But if you pu ...

Labor Market & Economic Growth - The labor market shows weakness with the highest unemployment rate and lowest year-over-year wage growth in four years [2] - Despite weak job growth, the economy is still moving forward, avoiding a recession, but is described as a "sickly tortoise" [3] - The economy is expected to experience weak fourth-quarter GDP growth, potentially around 1% [9] - The economy may grow at 3% in the first half of next year and 1% in the second half, resulting in approximately 15% growth for the year if a recession is avoided [8] - Labor supply is limited, with a shrinking native-born working-age population and near-zero net immigration, making it difficult for the economy to grow beyond 15% of trend rates [7][8] Consumer Spending & Fiscal Stimulus - Consumer spending is expected to increase in the first half of next year due to income tax refunds, with the average refund projected to be $4,000, up from $3,200 this year [4] - The boost in consumer spending from tax refunds is considered temporary ("sugar, not protein") and unsustainable in the second half of the year [6] Investment & Sector Performance - While there's a significant data center boom, other investment spending, such as heavy truck sales and home building, is weak [10][11] - Low oil prices are hindering drilling activity in the energy sector [11]

Hello everyone. The president wants GDP to grow 25% a year. AI job loss seems to be way overstated. We got a new way to think about the US economy transitioning. And LA public schools, they lost their minds and they proved the problem with big bureaucracies. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. But today, today's a big day. We have 41,000 subs. Exactly. 41,000. That means that you you ...

Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Degan McDow along with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Brian Breberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for this hour, Mr. . Sunshine, Rosecliffe, founder and managing partner Mike Murphy.And I actually mean that. I don't mean that in an Eddie Haskell sort of way. Investors are hoping for a Santa Claus rally to cap off what has been a big year, but keeping their eyes set firmly on 2026.Analysts from America's largest investment banks, banks galore, seeing at least an 11% gain on the ...

There are a wide range of predictions for what the US economy could look like next year. A recent article in Barron’s projected domestic GDP growth around 2% and rising inflation that peaks around 3.3% next summer. The “The One Big Beautiful Bill” that wasI have been involved in the financial world for over 20 years with experience as an advisor, teacher, and writer. I am a full believer in the free-market system and that financial markets are efficient with most stocks reflecting their real current value. ...

Key Takeaways In the past, life for a young adult might have followed a familiar trajectory to that of one's parents: go to college (or don't), move out, get a job, marry, and purchase a home. However, some young Americans haven't moved out of mom and dad's house just yet. In 2005, 11% of 25 to 34 year olds reported living with parents, but by 2023, 16% were, according to Census research. So what's keeping more young adults at home? Researchers speculate that this cohort could be opting to live at home for ...

And for more on that, I want to welcome into the program Joe Leavia, counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessett. Joe, thanks so much for joining me. Always great to see you.>> Thank you. Thank you. >> The Fed yesterday increased their outlook for the economy next year.They now see GDP growth of 2.3%. Fed Chair Powell said that he thinks that any price increases from tariffs could peak in the first quarter. where they see inflation falling to 2.5% next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4% ...

And for more on that, I want to welcome into the program Joe Leavia, counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessett. Joe, thanks so much for joining me. Always great to see you.>> Thank you. Thank you. >> The Fed yesterday increased their outlook for the economy next year.They now see GDP growth of 2.3%. Fed Chair Powell said that he thinks that any price increases from tariffs could peak in the first quarter. where they see inflation falling to 2.5% next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4% ...

GLOBAL WEEKLY KICKSTART Global equities back to all-time high Global equities were up slightly last week. Emerging Markets rose by 1.4% (Exhibit 1). Cyclicals outperformed with Technology up 1.7% (Exhibit 3) while Defensive lagged with Utilities down 3%. Commodities continued their positive run, led by Copper (+3.6%) (Exhibit 4). Macro data this week. US: the JOLTS job openings report, employment cost index, December FOMC meeting, ISM manufacturing and services indexes, core PCE inflation and the University ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant divisions among its officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with projections indicating only one cut in 2026, reflecting a wide range of individual forecasts from policymakers [1][10] - A notable minority of seven Fed officials oppose cutting rates in 2026, while eight anticipate at most two cuts next year, and four are considering more aggressive actions [2][10] - The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining whether a consensus can be reached or if divisions will deepen [3] Economic Outlook - The Fed's median forecasts predict real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.8% in September, despite a slower anticipated growth of 1.7% for 2025 [7][10] - Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% by year-end but project it will decrease back to 4.4% by the end of 2026 [11] - Inflation is expected to decline towards the Fed's 2% target, with forecasts suggesting a deceleration to 2.5% in 2026, slightly better than the previous estimate of 2.6% [12][11] Policy Dynamics - The next Fed chair will face challenges in unifying a committee with a strong hawkish presence, as the current chair's term ends in May [4][6] - President Trump has expressed a desire for lower interest rates, which may influence the selection of the next Fed chair [5][6] - Analysts predict that while the Fed may pause rate cuts in January, further reductions are likely later in the year, with expectations of a 25-basis-point cut in March and June [16][17]