I mean, how since since you're here, you know, we we want to talk to you about your role, of course, and some of what you have on your plate, which is a lot, including the trade negotiations. Who are which ones are you most focused on right now? Well, we have we're going to sort out India. You know, India basically has to open their market, has to stop buying Russian oil. You know, people don't remember India didn't buy Russian oil before the war with Russia and Ukraine. They had 1% of their oil was from Ru ...

Trade Negotiations - India is under pressure to open its market and cease purchasing Russian oil, which has increased from 1% to 40% of its oil imports since the Ukraine war began [1] - Upcoming trade deals are anticipated with Taiwan and Switzerland, while South Korea's compliance with agreements remains to be seen [1] Success Stories in Trade Agreements - The trade agreement with Europe involves 450 million people and a 20 trillion dollar economy, allowing for complete market access to the U.S. and a 15% tariff payment [1] - Japan has committed 550 billion dollars for investments in the U.S., including infrastructure projects like the Alaska pipeline and nuclear power plants, in exchange for tariff reductions [1] Economic Impact - Tariffs are generating 40 billion dollars monthly, contributing to deficit reduction without significantly causing inflation [1] - A projected 10 trillion dollars in factory construction is expected, leading to a surge in construction jobs and GDP growth exceeding 4% next year [1]

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...

8 September 2025 | 4:25PM EDT Global Views: Still Softening 1. The August employment report confirms that the US labor market has softened materially. Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22k, although our broader estimate of underlying trend job growth—which is based on moving averages of both the establishment and household survey—edged up to 41k because of stronger household employment. We are penciling in an upward revision to the August payroll estimate next month, as seen in 12 of the past 15 Septemb ...

Summary of India Macro Outlook Post 50% Tariff, GST 2.0 & Strong GDP Data Industry Overview - **Industry**: Indian Economy - **Report Date**: September 4, 2025 - **Research Provider**: Deutsche Bank Key Points Economic Growth - Real GDP growth for April-June 2025 has exceeded expectations, but risks remain high for the second half of FY26 due to a 50% tariff shock [5][6] - Nominal GDP growth is projected to decline from 14.0% in FY23 to 12.0% in FY24, and further to 9.8% in FY25, with expectations of 9.0% or lower in FY26 [6][11] - The importance of nominal GDP growth is emphasized, as it affects corporate earnings, fiscal ratios, and debt dynamics [6] Inflation Trends - August CPI inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.23% YoY from 1.55% in July, with expectations of remaining subdued in the near term [7] - CPI inflation is projected to average 3.0% in FY26 and 4.5% in FY27, with a potential rise to 5.1% in April-June 2026 [8][9] - Core CPI inflation is expected to increase to an average of 4.4% in FY26, up from 3.5% in FY25 [9] Fiscal Outlook - GST 2.0 is expected to be fiscally sustainable, with higher consumption offsetting revenue shortfalls [10] - A revenue shortfall of INR 400-500 billion is anticipated in FY26, pushing the fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP [10][11] - FY26 GST collection is estimated at INR 11.8 trillion, a 10.9% YoY increase, but risks remain for lower tax collections due to moderating nominal GDP growth [11] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut rates by 25bps on October 1, 2025, in response to growth risks [12] - The RBI's previous rate cuts have occurred despite positive GDP growth surprises, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [12] Currency and Foreign Exchange - The Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate mildly, with a target of 88.0 against the USD by the end of December 2025 [13] - India's FX reserves stand at USD 690 billion, but net reserves are lower at USD 635 billion, indicating potential vulnerabilities [14] Additional Insights - India's International Investment Position (IIP) is negative, with liabilities exceeding assets, highlighting the need for building FX reserves [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of qualitative assessments of GDP growth figures, particularly in light of deflator impacts [6] Financial Projections - The report includes a detailed financial forecast for various economic indicators, including GDP growth, fiscal deficit, CPI inflation, and trade balance [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank report on India's macroeconomic outlook, focusing on growth, inflation, fiscal policy, and currency dynamics.

All right, President Trump signing an executive order Thursday that will allow tariffs on auto and other imports from Japan to be coming in at much lower rates, 15% versus the 25 to 27 1.5%. Uh joining us right now to talk about this is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and SE Secretary Lutnik, thank you for being with us today. Let's walk through how this kind of played out and what the specific details are in this agreement. All right. So the Japanese in order to buy down their tariff rate, so they had a 2 ...

Investors will pay close attention to the PCE inflation report due at 8:30 a. m. Eastern time this morning.Let's talk more about the markets with Kevin Mann, president and chief investment officer at Henan and Walsh Asset Management. Kevin, um, first of all, I just want to get your view on the market. This is last obviously trading day of August.Um, you've studied this S&P rebound from the fifth worst start to the year to where we are today, back to record highs. How much longer do you think the rally can l ...

Stagflation, a scenario of high inflation, weak growth and elevated unemployment, has become a topic of concern for economists and traders amid US trade tariffs, sticky services inflation and slowing GDP growth. Recent tariff hikes have pushed costs higher for many imported goods and consumer inflation expectations have risen with annual headline inflation projected to approach 3.9% by year end as tariffs are implemented. However, the argument for stagflation remains limited due to continued weakness in goo ...

The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands at a historically low level of 4.2% and has been broadly stable over the past year. Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly, including quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth. Labor supply has softened in line with demand, sharply lowering the break even rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant.Indeed, labor force growth has slowe ...

Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve staff expects real GDP growth through 2027 to align with prior forecasts [1] - Unemployment is projected to exceed the natural rate by end-2025 and remain elevated [1] Financial Market Implications - Payment stablecoin usage may rise following the GENIUS Act [1] - Increased stablecoin usage could boost demand for assets like U S Treasuries [1]