Government Finance & Monetary Policy - Congressional incentives prevent spending cuts [1] - High interest rates are unsustainable due to ballooning government interest expense [1] - Repaying obligations with real productivity gains is increasingly difficult [1] - US government interest expense is a massive issue [1] Investment Recommendation - Consider Bitcoin as an investment [1]

Japan’s ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties risk weighing on demand at an auction of 30-year government debt https://t.co/x4iB6yMRXR ...

Core Insights - The mortgage rate forecasts suggest that rates may not reach 7% through 2026, with the Mortgage Bankers Association predicting rates around 6.4% by the end of 2026 and Fannie Mae forecasting slightly lower rates [3][4] Historical Context - The 30-year home loan rate has crossed the 7% mark multiple times in recent years, specifically for six weeks in 2024, 17 weeks in 2023, and twice in 2022 [1][2] Rate Impact Analysis - A half-point increase in mortgage rates can lead to an additional $100 in monthly payments and over $35,000 in interest for a $300,000 mortgage [4][5] - Conversely, a decrease from 6.5% to 6% would save borrowers about $100 monthly and approximately $35,000 in interest [5] Rate Prediction Indicators - The 10-year Treasury note is a reliable indicator for predicting mortgage rate movements, with lower Treasury yields typically leading to lower mortgage rates [6][8] - A quick rise to 7% mortgage rates could occur within four weeks under certain conditions, as evidenced by past trends [10] Long-term Outlook - Predictions for mortgage rates beyond 2026 are uncertain, with no official sources willing to make long-term forecasts [13] - Factors influencing potential rate increases include rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and shifts in investor behavior towards stocks [14]

The Bank of England is facing pressure to hold onto more than a quarter of its bond holdings, potentially for decades, after recent market turmoil highlighted the fragility of demand for long-dated UK government debt. https://t.co/DbdxRxQNTA ...

Government Debt - US debt to GDP ratio is approximately 121%, with about 36 trillion USD of debt and a GDP of about 30 trillion USD [1] - US debt to GDP ratio is among the highest, second only to Japan's 240% [2] - US national debt is considered a significant problem for the market's future [3] - The debt to GDP ratio has doubled since the 1990s, when it was around 60-66% [3] Gold and Silver Ratio - The current gold to silver ratio is about 91, while historically it averages around 60 [3][4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 30% this year [5] US Dollar and Platinum - The US dollar has declined by about 12% in the first six months of the year, marking one of the biggest declines since 1973 [5] - Platinum prices are currently less than half the price of gold, despite recent increases [6] - Platinum may be an option for diversifying out of stocks or other assets [6]

EV Market & Policy - Elon Musk's opposition to the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is primarily due to concerns about rising government debt, not the removal of EV tax credits or mandates [1] - Tesla's competitive position would improve significantly if all EV incentives were eliminated [1][2] - Elon Musk endorsed Trump knowing the EV mandates would likely be removed [1] - Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that the EV subsidy should end [1]