[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 如何看待原材料成本上涨对乘用车车企的影响？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-05 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 汽车 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]陈飞彤 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040002 | | | SFC CE No. BWZ819 | | | 021-38003726 | | | gfchenfeitong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 闫俊刚 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | | 021-38003682 | | | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 周伟 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6] Core Insights - The focus remains on the combination of IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), with significant advancements expected in their joint application [10][11] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for the combination of IO and ADC, with expectations for increased demand for ADCs, particularly in the context of various cancer treatments [11][41] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Second-Generation IO and ADC - Merck's sac-TMT is a strategic focus, with 16 ongoing Phase III clinical trials, particularly in gynecological cancers [14][15] - AstraZeneca has 8 ADCs in clinical stages, with significant data readouts expected in 2026 [19][20] - Pfizer is advancing 4 Phase III clinical trials for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, highlighting its strategic importance in oncology [26][27] - Johnson & Johnson aims to become the leading oncology company by 2030, focusing on multiple myeloma and various cancers [30] - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is advancing its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody and oral CELMoD therapies, with significant data catalysts expected in 2026 [32][33] - Roche is focusing on breast cancer, with its oral SERD Giredestrant expected to be approved soon [37][38] Section 2: The Year of IO+ADC Combination - The combination of IO and ADC is seen as a key development direction, with various clinical trials underway [41] - The first-generation IO+ADC combinations are competitive, with sac-TMT emerging as a significant player [42] - The second-generation IO combined with chemotherapy is led by AK112, with multiple milestones expected in the coming years [47] - The second-generation IO combined with ADC is still in early exploration, with AstraZeneca leading the way [49] Section 3: Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies several investment targets, including Kangfang Biotech, 3SBio, and others, highlighting their potential in the oncology sector [11][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6] Core Insights - The focus remains on the combination of IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), with significant advancements expected in their joint applications [10][11] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for the confirmation of IO combined with ADC, with expectations for increased demand for ADCs, particularly in the context of various cancer treatments [11][41] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Second-Generation IO and ADC - Merck's sac-TMT is a strategic focus, with 16 ongoing Phase III clinical trials, particularly in gynecological tumors [14][15] - AstraZeneca has 8 ADCs in clinical stages, with significant data readouts expected in 2026 [19][20] - Pfizer is advancing 4 Phase III trials for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, highlighting its strategic importance in oncology [26][27] - Johnson & Johnson aims to become the leading oncology company by 2030, focusing on multiple myeloma and other cancers [30] - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is advancing its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody with multiple ongoing trials [32] Section 2: Confirming the Year of "IO+ADC" Combination - The combination of IO and ADC is seen as a key development direction, with various clinical trials underway [41] - The first-generation IO combined with ADC is competitive, with sac-TMT emerging as a significant player [42] - The second-generation IO combined with chemotherapy is led by AK112, with multiple milestones expected in the coming years [47] - The second-generation IO combined with ADC is still in early exploration, with AstraZeneca leading the way [49] Section 3: Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies several investment targets, including Kangfang Biotech, 3SBio, and others, emphasizing their potential in the oncology sector [11][56]

Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: Q4 growth slowed on weak consumption and plummeting investment The NBS just released Q4 GDP and December activity data. Real GDP growth slowed to 4.5% y-o-y in Q4 (Consensus: 4.5; Nomura: 4.3%) from 4.8% in Q3. Thanks to a smaller deflation number, nominal GDP growth edged up to 3.8% y-o-y in Q4 from 3.7% in Q3, with the implied GDP deflator rising to -0.7% y-o-y in Q4 from -1.1% in Q3. For December, industrial production (IP) growth inc ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer regarding the lack of any stock, option, or similar derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating a neutral stance [2]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the views of any affiliated organization [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities predicts a 15.0% year-on-year increase in the battery capacity of new energy passenger vehicles in 2026, driven by changes in policy, supply, and demand [1]. Group 1: Key Drivers for Battery Capacity Increase - The first driver for the increase in PHEV battery capacity is the new energy vehicle purchase tax adjustment requirements and the launch of long-range PHEVs priced below 200,000 yuan, which will enhance user experience by reducing charging frequency [2]. - The second driver for PHEV battery capacity increase is the concentration of supply for large battery PHEVs priced above 200,000 yuan, as consumers in this segment are less price-sensitive and prefer better daily usage experiences [2]. - For EVs, the first driver is the decrease in the proportion of low-end pure electric vehicles due to the subsidy policy, while the second driver is the competitive strategy of leading manufacturers to "enhance features and raise prices" in response to rising raw material costs [2]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on right-side targets in the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, Seres, Li Auto, Xpeng, and Leap Motor, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile [3]. - For upstream and downstream chains, right-side targets include Minth Group, Yinlun, Bertli, Top Group, Aikodi, Fuyao Glass, and others, while left-side targets include Yongda Automobile and New Coordinates [3]. - Companies at an inflection point include SAIC Motor, with potential opportunities identified in various segments of the industry [3].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of Reuters as the world's largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people globally every day [1] Group 1 - Reuters provides a wide range of news including business, financial, national, and international updates to professionals [1] - The company delivers news through various channels such as desktop terminals, media organizations, industry events, and directly to consumers [1]

Company Performance - Tesla's EV deliveries totaled 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, marking a second consecutive annual decline and falling behind BYD, which delivered over 2.2 million EVs [1] - Fourth-quarter deliveries showed a significant year-over-year decline, indicating a slowdown in Tesla's core automotive business [1] Market Sentiment - Despite the decline in EV deliveries, investor focus has shifted towards expectations surrounding artificial intelligence and autonomy, valuing Tesla more as a future AI platform than as an EV manufacturer [2] - The disconnect between current vehicle fundamentals and investor sentiment suggests that Tesla's market valuation may be overly reliant on future technological advancements [3] Competitive Landscape - As government incentives diminish and competition intensifies, Tesla faces increasing challenges in maintaining its EV delivery numbers [3] - While Tesla's energy storage segment is growing, it remains small compared to the scale implied by the company's market valuation, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth strategy [3]

Market Trends - Car buyers rushed to dealerships in the first half of the year to secure purchases before anticipated price increases due to higher tariffs [1] - Automakers provided substantial incentives to maintain sales momentum, despite rising prices [3] - Consumer interest in the auto industry declined in the second half of the year as incentive spending decreased and car prices rose [3] Sales Data - New car sales showed weakness in Q3 and continued to decline in Q4, with December's annual sales rate expected to be around 15.9 million, down from 16.8 million in December of the previous year but up from 15.6 million in November [4] - In November, the average price paid for new vehicles reached $49,814, a 1.3% increase year-over-year and only $54 higher than October's average [5] Incentives and Pricing - Dealer incentives decreased, with the average discount on cars falling to 6.7% in November from 7.9% the previous year [9] - Throughout 2025, average incentives are projected to be 7% of the final sales price [9] Consumer Behavior - Many new-car buyers are in their peak earning years and are less sensitive to price, opting for higher-end vehicles that offer desired features [10]

Core Insights - Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) sales are experiencing a decline, yet the stock price remains at record levels due to investor interest in the potential of robotaxi services [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla's EV sales have continued to fall, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining growth in a competitive market [1] - The decline in sales raises questions about the company's market strategy and consumer demand for its vehicles [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Despite the drop in sales, Tesla's stock is trading around record levels, suggesting strong investor confidence [1] - The stock's performance is largely driven by Wall Street's focus on the future opportunities presented by robotaxi technology [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The interest in robotaxi services reflects a broader trend in the automotive industry towards autonomous driving solutions [1] - Investors are betting on the long-term potential of Tesla's innovations, which may offset current sales challenges [1]