Regulatory Clarity & Modernization - The U S aims to provide regulatory and legislative clarity for stablecoins to modernize the payment system [1] - This clarity is expected to further cement the dollar as the world's reserve currency by facilitating international trade through blockchain technology [1] - Providing clear rules will enable the U S to work with global partners to establish its stablecoin system as the dominant means of international electronic commerce [3] Innovation & Competition - If the U S does not provide clarity, innovation in the stablecoin space may move abroad [2] - The U S aims to prevent other countries from taking the lead in international standard setting, particularly in the realm of electronic commerce [3]

Geopolitical Risk - Chinese government is threatening to block a deal transferring ownership of seaports to Western investors [1] - The deal is contingent on Cosco, a Chinese company, receiving a stake [1]

Trade Overview - The U.S is a major global trading power [1] - Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan are key sources of goods imported into the U.S [1]

US Political & Economic Landscape - The US political system is perceived to be transforming, with concerns about slavish devotion to a leader and Washington potentially turning into Pyongyang [1] - There's a sense that the US is politically not the same country it was a few years ago, impacting the entire international system [1] - Public opinion is largely negative towards current legislation, even with deliberate obfuscation of its impact [25] - The US stock market may be detached from the economic reality, potentially driven by corporate profit expectations in a favorable regime [15] International Order & Global Economy - The traditional global order is being tested, with the US potentially abdicating its leadership role [1][3] - The world may be moving towards a "world order minus one," where the US is excluded due to its current political climate [3] - There's an opportunity for other countries, like China and the EU, to take on leading roles in trade, climate action, and global governance [5][6][7] - The US dollar has fallen about 10% since the start of the year, a phenomenon typically seen in emerging markets [17] Risks & Uncertainties - There are concerns about the stability of the US system, with potential for unfair elections and the creation of a massive secret police force [2] - The US is potentially setting itself up for a financial crisis due to deregulation, irresponsible fiscal policy, and pressure on the Federal Reserve [31][33] - There's a risk of runaway inflation if the Federal Reserve becomes too politicized and attempts to goose up the economy for political gain [34]

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

Geopolitical Landscape in the Indian Ocean - The Indian Ocean is vital for global commerce, serving as a critical passage for trade between Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia [1] - Increased competition exists between the US and China, and between China and India, for influence in the region [3] - President Trump's foreign policy shift has created uncertainty about the US's role, opening doors for China [3] - Tiny countries like Mauritius are being courted by major powers due to their strategic location [4] China's Growing Influence - China is investing billions in ports, infrastructure, and naval expansion in the Indian Ocean region, raising concerns in India [2] - As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China is asserting regional influence with multibillion-dollar infrastructure investments [14] - China has built its first military base in Djibouti and is expanding its naval footprint in Cambodia [16] India's Response and Concerns - India relies on the Indian Ocean for approximately 95% of its international trade and 80% of its energy [11] - India is constructing a new airstrip on the Agaléga islands to track Chinese activity [7] - India has commissioned a new base on Minicoy Island and opened its first offshore military logistics hub at Duqm Port in Oman [20] - India views the potential for an external power, particularly China, to disrupt trade routes as a significant threat to its national security [17] US Role and Retreat - US cuts to foreign assistance are seen as an opportunity for China to fill the gaps [18] - The US base on Diego Garcia is crucial for countering China's growing presence in the region [19]

What was the last thing you wrote about, Paul. Oh, heavens. Uh, I I just wrote about why the trade war is not over and um how the taco insult, Trump always chickens out, probably is going to make it even harder to bring this thing to an end.And I wrote a column about why prices in financial markets look rather normal right now. And that's why that might be rather a worrying thing because there's so much financial markets don't seem to be noticing. Uh, I I read that and I actually um that's a discussion we c ...

SK海力士：美国客户占到收入的60%；对美国的直接出口不高。 ...