Core Insights - US inflation may be quietly rising as companies gradually pass higher import costs onto consumers, with a focus on upcoming consumer inflation and retail data [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in June, the highest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, marking the first rebound since January [1][2] - Analysts anticipate cumulative inflation pressure as companies adjust pricing in the second half of the year, despite limited tariff transmission reflected in June data [2] Inflation Dynamics - The transmission of price changes is uneven, with certain goods experiencing tariff impacts while service prices remain soft, indicating a mixed inflation landscape [2] - Consumer sensitivity to prices is heightened due to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth, complicating retailers' decisions on price increases [2] - The tug-of-war between corporate pricing strategies and consumer resilience adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with upcoming meetings set to consider these inflation trends [2] Retail Sales Data - Following the CPI report, the US Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [3] - Weak consumer spending aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail sales data could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy [3] - Together, the CPI and retail sales data will provide insights into the current state of the US economy at the intersection of inflation and growth, particularly in light of the evolving tariff policies [3]

Swedish retail sales fell the most in more than two decades last month, increasing pressure on the country’s central bank to lower rates again https://t.co/oZ6dnP2XDH ...

As of June 2025, the US economy continues to defy some expectations as the labor market shows some strength even with inflation moderating. The latest jobs report on June 6th showed non-farm payrolls grew by 139,000 in May. This surpassed the forecast of 125,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.Meanwhile, the most recent CPI report on the 11th showed inflation below expectations at 2.4% year-over-year in May with core steady at 2.8%. Earlier worries that tariffs was going to at the same ...

Brett Schulman, Cava co-founder and CEO, joins ‘Money Movers’ to react to a weaker-than-expected retail sales number, and to share his outlook on the consumer and inflation. ...

We are just seconds away from retail sales and import prices. The futures this morning are weaker. Not as weak as they've been though.Down 160 right now for the Dow. Let's get right over to Rick Santelli at the CME in Chicago. Rick, yes, we could see yields moving lower.The market's smart. Retail sales for the month of May coming in at minus minus 9/10 of a percent. Almost down 1%.This is much more aggressive to the downside than we were expecting. We're expecting a number in the vicinity of down half a per ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Impact - Oil prices initially surged to their highest level since January but pulled back following signals from Iran about de-escalating tensions and potential nuclear talks [1][18][20][21] - Defense stocks continued to climb amid the Israel-Iran conflict, though analysts suggest investor behavior is more of a "safe haven" move than a direct correlation to company bottom lines [1][70][71][72] - The Paris Air Show is expected to be muted due to the ongoing conflict and a recent Air India crash, with Boeing CEO skipping the event [59][61] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market is shifting focus to Fed policy, earnings, and factors impacting the earnings picture, with the FOMC meeting being a key event [5][8] - There's discussion around the potential for a dovish Fed pivot, driven by inflation being cooler than in 2019 when the Fed last cut rates [35][36] - Real-time housing inflation is falling, suggesting the official measure has room to decline, potentially signaling a green light for the Fed to turn dovish [38][39] Company Specific & Sector Analysis - Meta is introducing ads to WhatsApp, focusing on user data for targeting but aiming to avoid content analysis, with the bigger opportunity being the race to artificial general intelligence [44][45][47] - Reddit is launching AI-driven advertising tools, leveraging human engagement data to inform generative AI and improve ad targeting [50][51] - Victoria's Secret is facing pressure from activist investors to overhaul the board and focus on the core bra business, while also navigating consumer spending habits and recent leadership changes [53][56][57] - China is stimulating its consumer market to offset export dependency, with Apple being a notable loser as domestic brands like Huawei gain market share [76][78][79][80] Global Investment Strategies - There's a potential shift in global equity leadership away from the US, with capital repatriation expected to benefit Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [87] - The US dollar showed no reaction to market surprises, and there was no rally in treasuries, indicating a lack of appetite for US assets [84][85] - TPW Advisory is overweight Chinese equity, favoring US-listed ETFs, and constructive on a global growth cycle extending through 2027-2028 [82][83] AI & Technology - AI is a major theme at the Can Lions International Festival of Creativity, with discussions on how it's changing the advertising and media industries [95] - Time Inc is embracing AI, launching Time AI with Scale AI to create personalized content and audio versions of their journalism [96][97][98][101][102] - Hyperscalers are investing heavily in the race to artificial general intelligence, even without knowing the ultimate prize [48] Energy Sector - Energy stocks may present an opportunity, as they have diverged from oil price trends and offer potential dividends [105][106] - AI's energy demands are creating a large energy problem, with hyperscalers investing in creative solutions like "behind the meter" energy sources [16][17] - Gas prices are still about 33 cents a gallon below last year, and diesel prices hit their lowest level since 2021 prior to Middle East escalations [23][32][33]

Retail Sales Overview - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.1% in April following a revised 1.7% increase in March, contrary to economists' expectations of no change [1] - The March increase was influenced by consumers making purchases in anticipation of tariff announcements [1] Sector Performance - The largest increases in April were in food services and drinking places (1.2%), building material and garden equipment supplies (0.8%), furniture (0.3%), and electronics and appliances stores (0.3%) [2] - Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gasoline stations decreased by 0.2%, below the revised 0.5% gain in March and forecasts of a 0.3% rise [2] Winning Areas Food Services and Drinking Places - Sales in this sector rose by 1.2% sequentially in April and 7.8% year over year [4] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) focuses on companies deriving at least 50% of their revenue from the restaurant business [4] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers - This segment experienced a 0.8% sequential sales gain and a 3.2% year-over-year increase [6] - Broad-based retail ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are relevant for this sector [6] - Vulcan Materials (VMC) is the largest supplier of construction aggregates in the U.S. and has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [7] Electronics & Appliance Stores - Sales in this category increased by 0.3% sequentially in April and 0.1% year over year [8] - The rise in electronics sales is expected to benefit semiconductor funds and stocks [8] - VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks companies involved in semiconductor production and charges 35 bps in fees [8] - Universal Electronics (UEIC) is a leader in universal control and sensing technologies for smart homes and has a Zacks Rank 3 [9]

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