Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, reaching 1.5-week highs due to dollar weakness, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent projections indicate a shift from a sugar deficit to a surplus in the global market for the 2025/26 season, with a surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) expected [2] Group 1: Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up +0.16 (+1.01%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.20 (+0.48%) [1] - Last Tuesday, NY sugar reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar hit a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [2] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [4] Group 3: Global Sugar Deficits and Surpluses - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 MMT [5] - Czarnikow projects a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, with the USDA forecasting a +4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, influenced by a rise in crude oil prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift towards ethanol production [1] - A significant global sugar surplus is projected for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a previous deficit, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - Increased sugar output in Brazil and potential sugar diversion to ethanol production in India are contributing to the negative price outlook [3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 closed up +2.69%, while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +2.62% [1] - Sugar prices initially hit a 4.25-year low in New York and a 4-year low in London, reflecting a declining trend over the past six months due to abundant global supply [2] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - StoneX projects a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of August increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons, with a higher percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production may not alleviate its sugar surplus, leading to increased exports [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a decline, with London sugar reaching a new 4-year low and NY sugar hitting a 4.25-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar production in Brazil [2][3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of 231,000 tons, an improvement from the previous year's shortfall of 4.88 million tons [4] Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons, despite the increase in production in the latter half of August [2] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for the 2025/26 season, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year increase, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 million tons [5] Export Dynamics - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, as the country anticipates a surplus despite plans to divert 4 million tons for ethanol production [3] - Abundant monsoon rains in India, reported at 893.8 mm as of September 22, are expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop, further influencing export levels and market prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline due to increased production in Brazil, leading to oversupply and lower market prices [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - October NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.16 (-1.03%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -4.50 (-0.98%) [1]. - Sugar prices have reached a 4.25-year low for NY sugar and a 4-year low for London sugar [2]. - The downtrend in sugar prices has persisted for six months, primarily driven by expectations of higher production in Brazil [4]. Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons [2]. - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 54.20% from 48.78% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - India is expected to divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar from Indian mills [3]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits [6]. - Global sugar production is projected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons [6]. Group 4: Market Positioning - Funds have significantly increased their net-short positions in NY sugar futures, reaching 182,608 contracts, the highest in nearly six years [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have experienced a decline, influenced by India's request to export 2 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which has created a negative sentiment in the market [1] - The Brazilian real has strengthened, reaching a 15-month high against the dollar, which has limited export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is positive, with a reported 16% year-on-year increase in sugar output in early August, although cumulative production for the 2025-26 season is down 4.7% year-on-year [3][6] Production Trends - Brazil's sugar mills are prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, leading to an increase in sugarcane crushed for sugar [4] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of 231,000 MT [5] - Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, Conab, has reduced its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 by 3.1% due to adverse weather conditions affecting sugarcane yields [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing upward movement due to a rally in WTI crude oil, which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is mixed, with a reported increase in output for the first half of August but a cumulative decrease for the 2025-26 season [2][5] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, although production is expected to rise [4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up by +1.34%, while October London ICE white sugar 5 is up by +0.65% [1] - A +1% increase in WTI crude oil prices is contributing to the rise in sugar prices, as higher crude prices may lead to reduced sugar supplies due to increased ethanol production [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of August rose by +16% year-on-year to 3,615 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 55.00% [2] - However, cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season is down -4.7% year-on-year to 22.886 million tons [2] - Conab has reduced its Brazil 2025/26 production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons, citing lower sugarcane yields due to adverse weather conditions [5] Group 3: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons, while consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons [4] - Czarnikow has projected a 7.5 million ton global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in eight years [6]