Core Insights - Sezzle (NASDAQ: SEZL) has over 36 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, highlighting its market position in the context of supply and demand dynamics [1] Company Analysis - Sezzle is positioned within the small and midcap investment space, which is characterized by asymmetric upsides, indicating potential for significant growth [1] - The company operates in a competitive landscape, with comparisons drawn to Affirm, suggesting a need for strategic differentiation [1] Industry Context - The analysis reflects a broader understanding of the Industrials and chemicals sector, indicating the analyst's diverse experience which enriches the evaluation of companies like Sezzle [1]

Housing Market Analysis - Home prices are expected to decrease if local governments increase housing supply [1] - Mortgage rates are projected to decline when the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates [1] Policy Implication - Addressing the housing crisis can be achieved by increasing housing supply and lowering interest rates [1]

Bitcoin Mining Industry Overview - China used to have the most hash rate in the world, but after the ban on Bitcoin mining, many Chinese miners relocated to the US [1][51][52] - Bitcoin mining can revitalize rural communities by partnering with local utilities that have excess power [41][44][45] - Bitcoin mining is an interruptible load, making it a perfect partner for utilities because it can be turned off and on without memory on the A6 [2][48][49] - There are only 450 new Bitcoin mined per day globally, regardless of how many miners there are [3][9] - Bitcoin miners validate each block, and without Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin doesn't exist [79] CleanSpark's Strategy and Operations - CleanSpark sells a portion of its Bitcoin production to cover operating expenses and uses a line of credit secured by its other Bitcoin for new acquisitions [12][13] - CleanSpark writes 5-day future contracts on Bitcoin they plan to sell, generating a premium of 1-4% [13][14] - CleanSpark doesn't sell its "hodl" (older Bitcoin) because it was mined at $20,000 each, which would have a significant tax impact [27][28] - CleanSpark's cost to mine a Bitcoin was approximately $42,000 in the most recent quarter [29][61] - CleanSpark aims to reach 50 exahash this summer [37] - CleanSpark is the last remaining pure-play miner, a strategy favored by institutional investors, with institutional holdings increasing from 10% to nearly 70% in three years [38][39] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The adoption of Bitcoin ETFs has changed the market dynamics, providing alternative investment options and influencing the correlation between Bitcoin price and miner performance [33][65] - The company believes Bitcoin will exceed $200,000 this year due to supply and demand dynamics [70][71] - The supply shock, with only 450 new Bitcoin mined daily, will drive the next phase of price increase [4][72]

Market Sentiment - There's significant attention surrounding a particular individual or entity within the cryptocurrency space [1] - Speculation exists regarding the potential impact of staking activities on supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The return of McDonald's Snack Wrap has led to unexpected high demand, resulting in a temporary depletion of lettuce supplies [1][5][8] - The company issued a directive to franchisees to pause adding shredded lettuce to McChicken sandwiches to manage supply shortages [2][5] - McDonald's had not anticipated such a surge in demand after the Snack Wrap's nine-year absence from the menu [5][11] Supply Chain Management - The supply shortage of lettuce has been resolved and is currently stable, with other ingredient outages also being temporary [8] - McDonald's typically follows a standard process for projecting supply needs but was caught off guard by the pent-up demand for the Snack Wrap [5][8] Customer Engagement - The decision to bring back the Snack Wrap was influenced by customer enthusiasm, including social media buzz and petitions [11] - McDonald's U.S. President had previously indicated that the Snack Wrap had a "cult following," which contributed to its relaunch [9][11]

Tokenization of Securities - The industry is considering whether algorithms should match supply and demand in the tokenization of securities and new offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of $118,856, surpassing its previous peak of $111,560, indicating strong market momentum and investor interest [1] Supply Dynamics - Approximately 94% of all possible bitcoins have been mined, with around 20% of the supply believed to be permanently lost [3] - The upcoming halving in April 2024 will reduce the daily output of new bitcoins from 900 to 450, tightening supply further [3] - The current supply situation is optimal for buyers, as demand is increasingly driven by institutional investors rather than retail enthusiasts [4] Institutional Demand - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $4.6 billion in June, reducing the public float available for new investors [5] - Major companies, such as Tesla, are maintaining significant Bitcoin holdings, with Tesla holding 11,509 coins valued at nearly $1.4 billion [6] - New Bitcoin treasury companies are emerging, focused on acquiring and storing bitcoins, further constraining supply [6][8] Government Interest - Governments are exploring or accumulating Bitcoin, with the U.S. planning to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) to hold forfeited coins [9] - This institutional and governmental interest contributes to a competitive environment for Bitcoin, as various entities vie for a limited supply [10] Market Sentiment and Conditions - Current market conditions are healthier compared to the 2021 crypto bull market, characterized by ETF-driven demand and increased regulatory clarity [12] - Investor sentiment appears cautious rather than exuberant, indicating a more stable market environment [13] Investment Strategy - Dollar-cost averaging is recommended as a strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility, allowing investors to buy a fixed amount of Bitcoin regularly [16] - With tightening supply and increasing institutional interest, the current price level may be a temporary milestone rather than a peak [17]

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Equity markets are seemingly moving past concerns related to geopolitical events, as evidenced by Asian FX and dollar offer trends [1] - The oil market is largely discounting the recent flare-up in US-Iranian conflict, with prices falling below the June 12 level [3] - Oil traders perceive minimal risk to the market, contingent on no strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and no disruption to the Strait of Hormuz [2] Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The oil market's focus is shifting to supply and demand fundamentals, which are currently bearish [4] - Widespread expectations suggest oil supplies will outpace demand in the second half of the year [5] - Chinese demand growth has been weak in recent months, contributing to the bearish outlook [6] - OPEC plus has been agreeing to increase output more than normal, adding barrels to the market [8] - Iran has been increasing its exports, further contributing to the supply glut [8] Price Outlook - The market sentiment has swung back to a bearish view, with discussions shifting from extreme scenarios like $100 oil to potentially lower prices [6] - The $60 range is considered a likely level for oil prices, barring disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz [9] - Shale drillers potentially taking advantage of the recent price spike could add supply, putting downward pressure on prices [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for various companies across the energy sub-sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [94][95]. Core Insights - The energy sector has performed in line with the broader market year-to-date, with rising geopolitical risks and stronger oil prices contributing to this performance [15][17]. - The report highlights a preference for natural gas exposure over oil, particularly in the Exploration & Production (E&P) segment, due to expected gas deficits and oversupply in the oil market [103][95]. - The refining and marketing sub-sector is expected to benefit from summer travel demand and tight product inventories, supporting margins [115][117]. Energy Performance & Valuation - Energy sub-sectors are near 10-year median EV/EBITDA multiples, with services stocks at the low end of historical ranges [17]. - The report forecasts a median free cash flow (FCF) yield of 11% at $65 WTI, with variations based on oil price scenarios [103][110]. Commodities and Macro Outlook - WTI oil prices have rallied approximately 25% since early May, driven by a tight crude market and geopolitical tensions [24][31]. - The report anticipates a surplus in the oil market in the second half of 2025, while a natural gas deficit is expected to re-emerge [103][42]. Sub-Sector Views Exploration & Production - The report emphasizes a defensive bias and preference for U.S. gas exposure over oil, with EQT identified as a top pick [95][111]. - Oil producers with a positive rate of change are favored, with Devon Energy (DVN) and Permian Resources (PR) highlighted for their strong performance [95][111]. Refining & Marketing - The summer travel season is expected to provide a demand boost, with product inventories remaining tight [115][117]. - Key stock plays include Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) and HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) due to their operational strengths [115][117]. Energy Services - The report suggests maintaining exposure to defensive and diverse characteristics, with Baker Hughes (BKR) and Schlumberger (SLB) as preferred stocks [95][130]. - The energy services sector is trading at historically low valuations compared to the S&P, indicating potential upside [124][132]. Midstream Energy - Midstream energy infrastructure is viewed as misvalued, with expectations for strong free cash flow and high dividend yields [136][142]. - Key stocks in this segment include Targa Resources Corp (TRGP), Oneok Inc. (OKE), and Energy Transfer LP (ET) [142].

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Oil prices have moved dramatically higher due to geopolitical tensions, with the current price movement largely attributed to a geopolitical premium [2] - The market is highly reactive to geopolitical headlines, causing volatility as traders assess the implications for supply and oil prices [4] - Current oil prices are around $74, and while higher than the $60-65 range before the geopolitical events, they are not yet at levels indicating supply interruption concerns [3][4] OPEC+ and Market Dynamics - OPEC+'s decision to bring forward supply surprised market participants, potentially preventing even higher oil prices [6] - Political considerations play a significant role in OPEC+ decision-making, particularly in maintaining group cohesion [7][8] - OPEC+ initially believed the market could absorb increased barrels until the first half of the year, but geopolitical concerns have altered this outlook [9] - OPEC still possesses considerable spare capacity that could be brought online, though escalating conflict impacting production and export facilities could drive prices even higher [10]