Core Insights - Copper futures prices have declined following Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products, which may lead to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME to $3,000 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The announcement of tariffs is expected to significantly affect copper prices, leading to potential volatility in the market [1] - The widening price gap between COMEX and LME could create trading opportunities for investors [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of copper prices remains uncertain, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies [1]

July 7, 2025 05:41 PM GMT Key Takeaways Global EM Strategist EM Flows Driven by USD, But by How Much? We leave our views unchanged ahead of shifting tariff deadlines. We see lower yields and a weaker USD, which should help drive EM inflows. Must reads from Global EM Strategy LatAm Macro Strategy – MXN: The Road to 18.00 and Below | 7-Jul-2025 MXN positioning is only mildly long despite its recent rally and the currency has decoupled from domestic risks. USD weakness offsets lower carry, but the peso remains ...

Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab (SCHW) has reached a 52-week high of $92.65, with a 23.1% gain over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Finance sector and the S&P 500, but underperforming the industry and Robinhood Markets, Inc. [1][9] Group 1: Revenue Drivers - Increased market volatility due to tariff policy concerns is expected to drive Schwab's trading revenues, benefiting from heightened market participation [3][4] - Schwab's acquisitions, including TD Ameritrade and USAA's Investment Management Company, have strengthened its position and diversified revenues, supporting top-line expansion [5] - The company's total client assets reached $10.35 trillion as of May 31, 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 20.1%, driven by acquisitions and market appreciation [6] Group 2: Financial Performance - Schwab's total net revenues have experienced a CAGR of 12.8% over the past five years, with managed investing solutions revenues growing at a CAGR of 12.2% [7] - The Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rates are likely to aid Schwab's net interest margin (NIM) and net interest revenue (NIR) expansion, with NIM increasing to 2.12% in 2024 from 1.98% in 2023 [10][11] - As of March 31, 2025, Schwab's cash and cash equivalents were $35 billion, and total debt was $39.9 billion, supporting its low-cost capital structure and capital distributions [13] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Schwab announced an 8% increase in its quarterly dividend to 27 cents per share in January 2025, having raised dividends four times in the past five years [14] - The company has a share repurchase program with approximately $7.2 billion in authorization remaining as of March 31, 2025 [14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is projected at $4.28 and $5.06 per share for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating growth of 31.7% for 2025 and 18.3% for 2026 [15] - Despite rising operating expenses, the company is expected to benefit from tariff policy concerns and higher interest rates, making Schwab a favorable investment option [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

Monday, July 7, 2025Just when we thought it was safe to take our eye off the market… threats of new tariffs from President Trump rear their ugly heads again. We started the trading day with the understanding that the July 9th tariff pause deadline was being pushed back to August 1st to U.S. trading partners who have not yet established new trade deals (which is almost all of them). Thus, the trim off record highs we saw before the opening bell turned into a full haircut.Markets were off session lows, with a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency pairs, including short CNH against an equal-weighted basket (EUR, AUD, KRW) at 4/5, long EUR/INR at 4/5, and long USD/HKD outright at 4/5 [6][10][16] Core Insights - The report suggests a bias towards a weaker USD, despite some short-term headwinds from stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data [8][12] - Key focus points include potential changes in US trade agreements and the influence of Fed Chair Powell's position on USD strength [11][20] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring developments in US tariffs, particularly concerning Japan and other major trading partners [19][20] Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level on short CNH against an equal-weighted basket has been raised to 4/5, targeting a 4% return by the end of July [11] - Long EUR/INR is favored with a conviction level of 4/5, driven by RBI's bias to maintain FX reserves and local growth slowdown [17] - Short USD/TWD is maintained at a high conviction level of 4/5, with expectations of continued foreign equity inflows and robust local fundamentals [15] G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is retained at a conviction level of 4/5 due to fiscal pressures on GBP and potential for further deterioration in economic data [21] - Short USD/JPY recommendations are maintained, with expectations of downward pressure on USD against JPY amid rising tariff risks [19][20] - The report indicates a modestly positive outlook for AUD, with expectations of a rate cut from the RBA [22] Asia Rates Strategy - Conviction on pay 10y HK IRS is raised to 4/5 due to increased HKMA intervention and expectations of upward pressure on USD/HKD forwards [25] - The conviction on pay 5y outright in China is maintained at 4/5, while the conviction on 2s5s steepener is reduced to 3/5 [26] - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with limited near-term catalysts expected [27]

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the revised +29K from the previous month [1][3] - Goods-producing jobs increased by +32K, while services jobs saw a decline of -66K, with notable losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2] - Large companies (over 500 employees) added +30K jobs, whereas small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost -47K jobs, and medium-sized firms lost -15K jobs [3] Group 2 - The last negative ADP reading occurred in March 2023, during a different economic context with the Fed raising interest rates to over 5% and an inflation rate of 5.0% [4] - The current job losses are primarily in white-collar sectors, which may not be directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign of undocumented immigrants [5] - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future payrolls, with a potential recovery dependent on new trade deals or a continuation of tariff pauses [6] Group 3 - The trailing four-month average private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, compared to an average of +162K per month over the previous eight months [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD and anticipates the S&P 500 to close near 6,000 by year-end, driven by accelerated earnings growth [10][25]. Core Insights - The interplay of policy uncertainty and business cycle dynamics is crucial, with US trade and fiscal policies being significant drivers of the global business cycle [7][8]. - A substantial shift in US trade policy, with an over 10%-point rise in the effective tariff rate, is expected to generate a broad-based downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures toward the US [18][45]. - The report places recession risk at an elevated 40%, reflecting concerns around building growth drags and recent declines in global business sentiment [18][54]. Economic Outlook - Global growth is expected to dip to 1.4% in 2H25, down from a potential of 2.2%, marking the weakest performance in over three years [25][52]. - US GDP growth outlook has been lowered from 2.0% to 1.3% for the year, with a one in three chance of slipping into contraction in the coming four quarters [18][59]. - China’s GDP growth forecast stands at 4.8%, reflecting external uncertainties and domestic housing market weaknesses [18]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued rotation into international markets, with USD weakness benefiting international equities [18][21]. - US equities are expected to experience narrow leadership and high market concentration, similar to the 2023-2024 playbook [10][18]. - High-grade credit is viewed positively due to attractive yields, declining net supply, and solid corporate results [10][20]. Commodity Outlook - Oil prices are projected to trade in the low-to-mid $60 range for the remainder of 2025, with a forecasted settlement at $60 in 2026 [24]. - Gold prices are expected to reach an average of $3,675/oz by 4Q25, supported by geopolitical tensions and economic growth concerns [24]. Risk Scenarios - The report outlines three potential scenarios: a higher for longer/incomplete cutting cycle, a sharper slowdown or recession, and a Goldilocks scenario where growth quickly returns to trend [33][35][37]. - The baseline scenario suggests that a moderate macro shock from tariffs could lead to upward pressure on risk assets, while a downside scenario anticipates wider credit spreads and underperformance in low-quality assets [33][35].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved net sales of $222.3 million, an increase of 10.6% compared to fiscal 2024, driven by growth in every sales channel and category [22] - Gross margins increased by 60 basis points to 44.6%, primarily due to higher sales volumes, partially offset by increased tariff and freight costs [26] - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $17.7 million, up 80.8% from fiscal 2024 [29] - GAAP EPS for fiscal 2025 was a loss of $0.01 compared to a loss of $0.94 in the prior year, while non-GAAP EPS was $0.76 compared to $0.32 in fiscal 2024 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Outdoor lifestyle category net sales grew by 16.2%, driven mainly by sales in Bubba, Meet Your Maker, and BOG brands [24] - Shooting sports category net sales grew by 3.8%, primarily driven by sales in the Caldwell brand [24] - Direct-to-consumer net sales increased to $29.6 million from $29.1 million last year, representing a significant growth in DTC sales from roughly 3% to over 13% of total net sales [16][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic net sales increased by almost 10%, while international net sales grew by 20% compared to fiscal 2024 [23] - E-commerce sales grew from 32% in fiscal 2020 to 38% in fiscal 2025, indicating a shift towards online sales channels [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its reach into new categories, customers, and geographies, focusing on innovation and sustainable growth [6][7] - The strategic shift from a concentration in shooting sports to a broader outdoor lifestyle focus has seen outdoor lifestyle sales grow from 46% of net sales in FY 2020 to 57% today [15] - The company has secured 170 new patents, growing its patent portfolio by over 65%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macro environment and evolving tariff policies, which may impact consumer behavior [33] - Despite the challenges, management expressed confidence in the underlying demand for their products and the strength of their innovation pipeline [60] - The company is proactively mitigating potential risks through a disciplined, multi-pronged approach to manage the evolving tariff landscape [18][39] Other Important Information - The company is set to join the Russell 3000 Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, enhancing visibility within the investment community [41] - The company ended the year with cash of $23.4 million and no debt, maintaining a strong balance sheet [29][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on the $8 million to $10 million of fiscal 2026 demand that was pulled into Q4? - Management indicated that retailers accelerated orders due to anticipated price increases from suppliers, benefiting the company [45] Question: What are the early Q1 trends for consumer discretionary spending? - Management noted strong point-of-sale trends, indicating healthy consumer demand despite some surface-level bumps related to inventory management [48][49] Question: What drove the strength in the traditional sales channel? - The strength was attributed to a combination of load-in related factors and the traditional channel's effectiveness in launching new products [50][51] Question: What is the current M&A environment and appetite for acquisitions? - Management expressed a clean balance sheet and readiness to pursue acquisitions, particularly in the outdoor lifestyle segment, with ongoing conversations for potential deals [53][54] Question: Can you clarify the reason for the withdrawn guidance? - Management explained that the acceleration of orders led to a slower start in Q1, creating uncertainty in order flow and prompting the decision to suspend guidance [59][60] Question: How much exposure does the company have to China in terms of cost of goods? - Management indicated that while there is exposure, they have built up inventory and are prepared to shift production to mitigate tariff impacts [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $1.2 billion for the third quarter, an increase of $211 million or 22% year-over-year [20] - Adjusted operating profit rose to $222 million, up $55 million or 33% from the previous year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 18.8%, an increase of 150 basis points [21] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $5.12, up $0.97 or 23% compared to the prior year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ABL (Acuity Brands Lighting) generated sales of $923 million, a $25 million or 3% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in independent sales and direct sales networks [21] - Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) reported sales of $264 million, an increase of $188 million, with Atrius and Distech combined growing 21% and QSC growing over 20% year-over-year [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced accelerated orders in the third quarter, attributed to strategic pricing actions in response to evolving tariff policies [5][22] - The independent sales network and direct sales showed strong growth, while corporate accounts faced declines due to timing issues with a large retailer's renovations [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on product vitality, service enhancement, and technology improvements to drive productivity and market share growth [18] - Acuity is entering new verticals, including refuel and healthcare, and is making strategic acquisitions to enhance its product offerings [110][111] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage outcomes amid uncertainties from tariff policies and geopolitical instability [17] - The expectation is that the combination of third and fourth quarter performance will meet the anticipated results for the second half of fiscal 2025 [62] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $400 million in cash flow from operations year-to-date and has effectively allocated capital, including a 13% increase in dividends and share repurchases [27][28] - A special charge of $30 million was taken this quarter related to productivity efforts, which will yield benefits in future quarters [29][96] Q&A Session Summary Question: QSC margin performance - Management noted that QSC's margin improved significantly due to strong top-line growth and the adoption of productivity tools, with no deal accounting affecting the results [34][92] Question: Impact of accelerated orders and pricing actions - Management confirmed that there was evidence of order acceleration in both ABL and AIS, with expectations for normalized performance in the upcoming quarters [40][41] Question: Gross margin expectations for Q4 - Management indicated that while Q3 had minimal impact from tariffs, Q4 is expected to see some margin dilution due to tariff costs and pricing actions [58][60] Question: Demand environment and customer behavior - Management observed rational behavior from customers in response to pricing actions and tariff uncertainties, indicating a conservative approach to future expectations [97][99] Question: Progress on new verticals - Management highlighted strong traction in new markets such as refuel and healthcare, with ongoing efforts to enhance product offerings in these areas [110][111]