Core Viewpoint - Bonds are becoming an attractive hedge as stock valuations rise, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) showing a year-to-date total return increase of 5.61% [1] Group 1 - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has increased by 5.61% year to date on a total return basis [1]

Market Performance & Trends - Pharmaceutical sector experienced a surge, rising approximately 5% for the second consecutive day, influenced by reports of potential delays in pharma tariffs to facilitate drug price negotiations [2][13] - GoodRx saw a spike of 10-20%, seemingly driven by a CEO interview on another network [3] - Lithium Americas shares rallied around 23% following the U S Secretary of Energy's announcement on Bloomberg Television that the U S government agreed to acquire a 5% stake in the company [9][11] - Nike's shares increased by approximately 6 25% after reporting first-quarter revenue that surpassed average analyst estimates [12] - Space Mobile's shares surged 16% following the announcement of successful satellite deployment, with Barclays raising its price target to $60 from $37 [15][16] Economic Indicators & Analysis - Bond market activity indicated yields were down across the curve, reacting to ADP data, suggesting potential market concerns if ADP is the only payroll data available [3][4] - Market conviction for further rate cuts this year is near certainty, pricing in at least one cut by the end of October and another by December 10th [22][23] Company Specific News & Developments - Corteva's shares declined by 9 1% after announcing plans to separate into two independent companies, with investors expressing concerns about increased volatility in the pesticide business [16][17][18] - Cal-Maine Foods' shares decreased by 1 2% after reporting first-quarter profit and sales that fell short of expectations, reflecting changing consumer preferences for fancier egg varieties [18] - Peloton's shares dropped by 3 7% after the company increased hardware prices by an average of 11% and subscription fees by 19%, raising concerns about potential customer churn [20][21] - Amazon is consolidating Amazon Fresh and Happy Belly into one collection, aiming to streamline its food and grocery offerings [30]

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 30, 2025: Dow Hits New Record Last Updated: Updated 3 hours ago Dow Notches Record. S&P 500 Rallies to End Best September Since 2010. By Customer Center Network Connor Smith The stock market rallied late on Tuesday to wrap up its best September in more than a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82 points, or 0.2%, to mark a record closing high. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. The S&P and Nasdaq each had their best September performa ...

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.20% on September 26, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.63% and the 30-year note at 4.77% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-2 spread has shown a continuous negative trend from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [3] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a negative trend from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024, with fluctuations between positive and negative since February 26 [5] Mortgage Rate Impact - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and while typically a rising FFR leads to higher mortgage rates, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest 30-year fixed rate at 6.30% [7]

Core Insights - The labor market remains resilient, leading to increased Treasury yields and a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][6] Economic Data Impact - Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, and quarterly economic growth exceeded forecasts, contributing to a rise in short-maturity rates [2][3] - The two-year yield increased by approximately 3 basis points to 3.67%, marking the highest level since early September [2] Market Sentiment - Traders have slightly reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, moving away from fully pricing in a quarter-point cut in late October [3][6] - Despite the current economic data not supporting further rate cuts, some analysts still anticipate cuts in October and December due to a weakening labor market [4] Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year note yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield was around 4.75%, resulting in a flatter Treasury curve [5] - The yield gap between five and 30 years fell below 1 percentage point for the first time since August 11, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to implement a series of rate cuts [5] Future Rate Expectations - Analysts suggest that without significantly weaker economic data, it is unlikely for 10-year yields to drop below 4% in the near term, with rates expected to fluctuate within the 4% to 4.25% range [7]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.14% on September 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.57% and the 30-year note at 4.75% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite steady FFR [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1 - Investors in the bond market are adjusting their positioning following the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - Treasury yields are increasing as investors adjust their growth and inflation expectations following a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth estimates for this year and next, with stronger growth anticipated in 2027, while also slightly lowering its unemployment forecast [2] - Fed officials indicated the possibility of two additional quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2026, highlighting concerns over softer job growth despite inflation risks [2]

Core Insights - Strong retail sales data for August led to a significant increase in Treasury yields, indicating a potential shift in economic outlook and interest rate expectations [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 3.56% following the retail sales report [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.06%, reflecting investor reactions to the stronger-than-expected retail sales [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Dow futures experienced a slight decline of less than 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures saw a modest increase of 0.1% [1]. - Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.2%, indicating a mixed response across different market indices [1].

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)EVERY BIG BITCOIN RALLY STARTED WITH THIS SIGNAL 🚨Look at the chart: US 20-Year Treasury Yields (top) vs Bitcoin (bottom).Every time long term yields peaked and reversed lower, Bitcoin exploded:↳ Nov 2023: Yields down → BTC +175%↳ Nov 2024: Yields down → BTC +60%↳ May 2025: Yields down → BTC +48%Now in Sept 2025, the same setup is forming again.20-year bond yields peaked at 5.38% and now going down.$BTC is consolidating around $115K, which is only 8% away from a new ATH.Why doe ...