Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

“If you just kind of take a 30,000-foot look at the economy, you see an an economy with an unemployment rate in the range of 4%,” says @MichaelRStrain. What it may look like later in the year, on “Checks and Balance” https://t.co/rabhZJxjoS ...

Fed Rate Policy & Inflation - The Fed is likely to lower rates, considering the downward trend of inflation approaching the 2% target [1] - High real rates are restraining the economy, suggesting a need for rate cuts [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered minimal and temporary, unlikely to significantly alter the Fed's course [3][4] - A potential one-time price jump from tariffs is expected, with the US being a relatively closed economy where services constitute 70% of the consumer basket [4] - Even a 20% tariff increase is projected to raise prices by less than 1 percentage point [4] - Dollar decline since February is adding to inflation pressure, potentially more so than tariffs [10] Labor Market & Economic Impact - The Fed is cautious about weakness in the labor market translating to unemployment [6] - Maintaining the unemployment rate in the 4-45% range is a key objective for both the President and the Fed [7] - Weakness in the labor market will drive the Fed's rate decision more than inflation [8] - Long-term interest rates significantly affect the economy, influencing housing and investment decisions [8] - The US government's deficit and spending policies are crowding out the economy, potentially hurting it more than other factors [9]

Labor Market - The unemployment rate decreased to 41% last month [1] - The unemployment rate is milder than economist forecasts of 43% [1]

Labor Market Overview - US job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month [1] - The unemployment rate fell [1]

Labor Market Overview - US job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month [1] - The unemployment rate fell, showcasing a healthy labor market [1] Economic Context - The labor market remains healthy despite a slowing economy [1]

We've been speaking with top economists to better understand what this economic climate means for companies' bottom lines. Today, I'm speaking with CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth. Hi, Danielle, thanks so much for taking the time to speak with me again this year.Thank you for having me. Great to be with you again. How can companies protect their bottom lines in this time of political and economic uncertainty.So, you know, the idea of battening down the hatches before the hu ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the Fed might have already implemented one rate cut [1] - The industry notes the Fed's previous Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March occurred before the April 2nd tariff announcement [1] - The industry observes the Fed's forecasts indicate a slightly more restrictive policy stance than anticipated in March [1] - The industry believes the Fed made the right decision to hold the funds rate steady, awaiting more clarity [1] Economic Outlook - The industry acknowledges the economy's resilience, citing a strong labor market and rebounding growth after a negative first quarter [1] - The industry recognizes uncertainty regarding the size and effects of tariffs, anticipating higher inflation and weaker growth [1] - The industry expects the budget bill working its way through Congress to influence the economic outlook [1] - The industry highlights the importance of minimizing both the risk and cost of policy mistakes, suggesting it's not costly to hold rates steady given the current economic environment [3] Inflation and Unemployment - The industry indicates tariffs are expected to cause higher inflation, at least temporarily, and slightly higher unemployment [1] - The industry points out that the unemployment rate is low [3] - The industry observes that growth in employment is moderating as expected [4]