Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the US labor market and broader economic conditions, indicating a material softening in employment growth and GDP forecasts for 2025. Key Insights 1. **Labor Market Conditions** - The August employment report shows nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22,000, with a broader estimate of underlying job growth at 41,000 due to stronger household employment [1][4][9]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.32%, marking a new cycle high, indicating a looser labor market compared to pre-pandemic levels [4][6][7]. 2. **Economic Growth Forecasts** - The GDP growth estimate for 2025 is projected at 1.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, suggesting job growth will likely remain below the breakeven rate of 80,000 needed to stabilize unemployment [1][9]. - A gradual economic reacceleration is expected towards potential growth in 2026, driven by easing financial conditions and fiscal policy [9][16]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs and Inflation** - The report anticipates that the drag from higher tariffs will diminish, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.2% by Q4 due to price level shocks [13][16]. - The central bank is expected to overlook these shocks in favor of maintaining employment stability [13]. 4. **Global Economic Context** - Despite a 33% year-on-year decline in exports to the US, China's overall exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year in nominal terms, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy [18][21]. - Emerging markets are showing steady growth around 4%, contrasting with weaker growth in advanced economies [18][21]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The weaker job market data supports expectations for a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with further cuts anticipated in subsequent meetings [13][16]. - Market pricing has aligned closely with the forecasted monetary policy, indicating a potential shift in the Fed/ECB spread [22]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the unemployment rate alongside payroll data due to increased uncertainty in job growth metrics [4][9]. - The potential boost from AI is highlighted as a factor that could sustain or enhance productivity growth in the coming years [12][9]. - The economic implications of geopolitical events, such as the French political crisis, are noted as mixed, affecting private-sector demand and fiscal conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

Okay, this may come as a small surprise to many of you. Donald Trump's economy is apparently struggling. Today's weak job numbers report shows only 22,000 jobs were added in August.That's well below the expected 75,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3%, the highest it's been in nearly four years. Now, none of this is good news for the president, who was already facing pretty steep backlash for his economic policies.Quinnipic's latest poll shows 57% of Americans don't approve of Trump's hand ...

Well, let's stay on the market, bring in unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot, the gold bug I mentioned before, but let's start with the Fed and what's going on there. You think Powell's caving. >> Well, I I think basically when you look at the change in his statement at Jackson Hole versus where he was just a few weeks before in the presser, it seems like there was a pretty material shift in the positioning uh particularly getting to a a focus on the labor market.I don't know how many times in the last presser ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Governance - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining low inflation and economic/financial stability, shielding long-term decisions from short-term political pressures [4][5][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve is designed to ensure independent policy makers make decisions affecting the economy over the longer term [5] - Central bank independence has proven valuable worldwide, leading to better outcomes for countries [6] Economic Outlook - GDP growth slowed to approximately 125% (one and a quarter percent) at an annual rate in the first half of the year, compared to around 250% (two and a half percent) the previous year [9] - The economy is undergoing an adjustment process, partly due to post-pandemic factors and policy changes, including trade policy [10] - The economy is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of 100% to 150% (one to one and a half percent) for the year as a whole, slower than the previous year but still with positive momentum [11] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is currently solid, with an unemployment rate of 42% (four and two-tenths percent), which is historically low [13] - There has been a slowdown in the pace of hiring and payroll growth, partly due to a slower labor supply caused by reduced immigration [14] - Wage growth remains consistent with a solid labor market and inflation trending towards the 2% goal [19]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's recent statements [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly concerned about rising unemployment rates, potentially triggered by changes in immigration policies and other factors [2] - The Fed's emphasis on employment over inflation, despite inflation being at 3% (above the 2% target), raises questions about its policy bias [6] - There's debate on whether current policies are "modestly restrictive," with arguments suggesting real rates are closer to neutral at 150 basis points (15%) [7] Economic Trends & Labor Market - The economy is experiencing a slowdown in both supply and demand, creating a "curious" situation [3] - Global demographic shifts, including declining fertility rates, are impacting the labor market [4] - Monthly job growth of 40,000 to 50,000 may not be a negative outcome, considering the evolving dynamics of the labor market [4] - Recent labor reports and revisions were not favorable, contributing to the Fed's openness to a September rate cut [5] Fed Independence & Political Pressure - There are concerns about the Fed's independence due to significant and direct political pressure, reminiscent of the Johnson and Nixon eras [12][13] - The Fed is under pressure from the administration, potentially affecting the reappointment of board members [12] - Chairman Powell is navigating differing views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and attempting to build consensus [9][10] - The Fed's decisions are heavily data-dependent, closely monitoring upcoming inflation and employment reports before their September meeting [11]

Let's dig deeper into how the markets are processing all these headlines from Chair Powell's speech. Joining us with his takeaways is Rosenberg Research founder and president David Rosenberg. Were Were you surprised to hear Powell much more open today to the policy pivot and the September cut.Well, if you would have asked me uh a few days ago, uh I would have been surprised. But then I gave a a good second look at the FOMC minutes uh that had come out from the last meeting. And what was really important uh ...

Monetary Policy Stance - Monetary policy is not on a preset course, decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [3] Economic Outlook & Risks - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

All right, let's officially now bring in David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffre, as well as a CNBC contributor, also on the not so short list of 11 candidates who may replace J. Pal. Welcome.That was that was a long introduction, Melissa. It was I mean, there's so many mantles which you carry these days. And a frequent guest here, which is how we know him.We don't really care about the stuff. What did you make of the number today. I don't make a lot of it. I I Steve said it's a very volatile number ...

Jerome Powell sees a historically low unemployment rate and above-target inflation; while the dissenters note that households are spending less and private job creation is soft. Yet markets seem to be following the Fed chair’s lead https://t.co/tHTqABzKzO ...

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]