Now that we've heard from the president of the UN, let's start on the next big focus for the market and that will be the Fed chair's speech this afternoon that follows the Fed's quarterpoint rate cut just last week. Joining us this morning, chief economics correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timos is with us. Nick, good to have you.Welcome back. Thanks for having me, Carl. We always sort of have I don't know when pal speaks expressor kind of low expectations.His remarks might not get to monetary ...

The Chicago Fed introducing new labor market indicators this morning that com combine private sector data with official labor statistics for a real time view of hiring layoffs uh and other job information. And join us now Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. We How you doing, Mr.. President. It's good good to have you on. We got some new data.I'm excited. And you know why I like it. because, you know, say what you will about, you know, the big kurfuffle with the the BLS firing and all that stuff.It did high ...

So what did you make of the quarterpoint cut and also some of the commentary from J Pal uh just talking about the dispersion the summary of economic projections and also our Steve Leeman asked a great question are we on a path for cuts and JP pal came back and said well we're more data dependent something he obviously has said in previous meetings >> well the meeting turned out to be what most of us expected to have happen the 25 basis point cut >> I think what was would have been more problematic was we di ...

In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. ...

Joining me now are Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley Anastasia Amaroso, chief investment strategist for private wealth at Partners Group. Thank you both very much for being here. Uh Michael, let's start with you because we were just discussing with Steve that there's uh you know expected to be some dissent over the quarter point cut.Uh, do you think that's more emblematic of the macro uncertainty that's out there or just the the fireworks and the politization and all the various headlines ...

Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Policy - A Federal Reserve committee is scheduled to discuss a potential interest rate cut [1] - The market anticipates the Fed will likely reduce interest rates, with debate focusing on a 025% or 050% cut [9][14] - The President advocates for more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the housing market and overall economy [9] - The Fed's primary objectives are to maintain employment levels and control inflation [10] Key Personnel & Board Dynamics - Lisa Cook's position on the Fed board remains uncertain due to legal challenges following President Trump's attempt to dismiss her [1][3] - Steven Myron is expected to be confirmed to the Fed board, potentially influencing the upcoming meeting [2] - The composition of the Fed board, consisting of twelve members, plays a crucial role in deciding monetary policy [10][13] Economic Indicators & Concerns - The job market shows signs of weakening, with a rising proportion of long-term unemployed individuals [10][11] - Inflation remains a concern, creating a dilemma for the Fed as rate cuts to stimulate the job market could exacerbate inflationary pressures [11][12] - There's a notable trend of "no hire, no fire" among companies, leading to fewer entry-level job opportunities, particularly affecting recent college graduates [15][16][17] - Youth unemployment, specifically among Gen Z, is reportedly high, potentially reaching 105% [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the US labor market and broader economic conditions, indicating a material softening in employment growth and GDP forecasts for 2025. Key Insights 1. **Labor Market Conditions** - The August employment report shows nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22,000, with a broader estimate of underlying job growth at 41,000 due to stronger household employment [1][4][9]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.32%, marking a new cycle high, indicating a looser labor market compared to pre-pandemic levels [4][6][7]. 2. **Economic Growth Forecasts** - The GDP growth estimate for 2025 is projected at 1.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, suggesting job growth will likely remain below the breakeven rate of 80,000 needed to stabilize unemployment [1][9]. - A gradual economic reacceleration is expected towards potential growth in 2026, driven by easing financial conditions and fiscal policy [9][16]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs and Inflation** - The report anticipates that the drag from higher tariffs will diminish, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.2% by Q4 due to price level shocks [13][16]. - The central bank is expected to overlook these shocks in favor of maintaining employment stability [13]. 4. **Global Economic Context** - Despite a 33% year-on-year decline in exports to the US, China's overall exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year in nominal terms, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy [18][21]. - Emerging markets are showing steady growth around 4%, contrasting with weaker growth in advanced economies [18][21]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The weaker job market data supports expectations for a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with further cuts anticipated in subsequent meetings [13][16]. - Market pricing has aligned closely with the forecasted monetary policy, indicating a potential shift in the Fed/ECB spread [22]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering the unemployment rate alongside payroll data due to increased uncertainty in job growth metrics [4][9]. - The potential boost from AI is highlighted as a factor that could sustain or enhance productivity growth in the coming years [12][9]. - The economic implications of geopolitical events, such as the French political crisis, are noted as mixed, affecting private-sector demand and fiscal conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for investment strategies.

Okay, this may come as a small surprise to many of you. Donald Trump's economy is apparently struggling. Today's weak job numbers report shows only 22,000 jobs were added in August.That's well below the expected 75,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3%, the highest it's been in nearly four years. Now, none of this is good news for the president, who was already facing pretty steep backlash for his economic policies.Quinnipic's latest poll shows 57% of Americans don't approve of Trump's hand ...

Well, let's stay on the market, bring in unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot, the gold bug I mentioned before, but let's start with the Fed and what's going on there. You think Powell's caving. >> Well, I I think basically when you look at the change in his statement at Jackson Hole versus where he was just a few weeks before in the presser, it seems like there was a pretty material shift in the positioning uh particularly getting to a a focus on the labor market.I don't know how many times in the last presser ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Governance - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining low inflation and economic/financial stability, shielding long-term decisions from short-term political pressures [4][5][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve is designed to ensure independent policy makers make decisions affecting the economy over the longer term [5] - Central bank independence has proven valuable worldwide, leading to better outcomes for countries [6] Economic Outlook - GDP growth slowed to approximately 125% (one and a quarter percent) at an annual rate in the first half of the year, compared to around 250% (two and a half percent) the previous year [9] - The economy is undergoing an adjustment process, partly due to post-pandemic factors and policy changes, including trade policy [10] - The economy is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of 100% to 150% (one to one and a half percent) for the year as a whole, slower than the previous year but still with positive momentum [11] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is currently solid, with an unemployment rate of 42% (four and two-tenths percent), which is historically low [13] - There has been a slowdown in the pace of hiring and payroll growth, partly due to a slower labor supply caused by reduced immigration [14] - Wage growth remains consistent with a solid labor market and inflation trending towards the 2% goal [19]