Trade Policy - The Trump Administration planned to impose a 50% tariff on products from India [1]

Market Trends - Swiss watch exports to the U S surge despite the potential impact of a 39% tariff [1]

Trade Policy - US is initiating a significant tariff investigation on furniture entering the US [1] - The investigation is expected to be completed within 50 days [1] - Tariffs will be imposed on furniture entering the US from other countries at an undetermined rate [1] Industry Impact - The goal is to bring furniture business back to states like North Carolina, South Carolina, and Michigan [1]

Just within the past couple of moments, the president of the United States announcing a major tariff investigation in the furniture industry, posting on social media a couple minutes ago, "I am pleased to announce that we are doing a major tariff investigation on furniture coming into the United States within the next 50 days. That investigation will be completed and furniture coming from other countries into the United States will be tariffed at a rate yet to be determined. This will bring the furniture bu ...

Trade Policy - The US is initiating a "major Tariff Investigation on Furniture" entering the country [1] - This investigation sets the stage for potential industry-specific tariffs on furniture [1]

Fed's Policy Stance and Market Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, with odds of a September cut at 89% [15] - The Fed is perceived as giving a "dim green light" to a rate cut, though the word "may" introduces uncertainty [5][24] - The market's excitement stems from a perceived pivot away from inflation concerns towards the labor market [22] - The Fed may cut rates despite stagflation, a situation where inflation and unemployment are both high [29] Inflation and Tariffs - The Fed believes it can control inflation and prevent tariff price increases from becoming broader inflation [1] - Tariff-driven inflation is considered a "one-time event," but it creates a pricing umbrella for other producers to raise prices [19][27][28] - Some companies, like The Home Depot, Pepsi, and Walmart, are starting to talk about increasing prices [20] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand has softened, but labor supply has also softened due to factors like reduced immigration and deportations [12][28] - The "break-even rate" of unemployment, the level needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, is a key consideration for the Fed [9][12] - Payroll growth and inflation reports are important data points for the Fed's decision-making [9] Economic Reports and Data - September's economic data, including the jobs report, PPI, and CPI, will be consequential for the Fed's decision [2][6][17][18] - The market will adjust over time if the data leans against a rate cut [3] - The discussion needs to focus on the right level of payroll growth, considering the shrinking labor force [7][8]

Turning to inflation, higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods. Estimates, based on the latest available data, indicate that total PC prices rose 2.6% over the 12 months ending in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PC prices rose 2.9% above their level of a year ago.Within core prices of goods increased 1.1% over the past 12 months. A notable shift from the modest decline seen over the course of 2020 for. In contrast, housing services inflation remai ...

Economic Outlook - Downside risks to employment are rising [1] - Tariff effects on consumer prices are clearly visible [1] - Tariff impact on inflation is expected to be short lived [1] Monetary Policy - A rate cut is anticipated next month [1]

US-India Relations & Trade - Potential 50% duty on India by the US due to tariff campaign [1] - India's $50 billion exports at risk if relations with the US are not repaired [3] - US is India's biggest customer [3] India-China Relations - India is moving to repair relations with China [1] - Potential for cross-border investments between Indian billionaires and Chinese technology companies [2] - Expect announcements regarding India-China relations at the Modi-Xi Jinping meeting [2] Indian Economic Reform - Modi is proposing lower consumption tax rates [3] - More reforms are promised to boost India's economic growth [2][3]

Postal services across the world are cutting off parcel deliveries to the US as the fast-approaching end of a tariff exception for low-value packages sows chaos in global shipping https://t.co/gQR9boyttz ...