RT Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive)🚨BREAKING: Morgan Stanley says the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025. 🤔 https://t.co/eeKsVfxEea ...

The Kansas City Fed economic po policy symposium starts today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And that is where we find our senior economics reporter, Steve Gleeman. He has a special interview for us.Steve, good morning, Becky. As is tradition, we sat down with the host of the symposium, the Kansas City Fed President, and I started by asking Jeff Schmidt, now in his second year as president, for his comments about allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook. we have responsibilities responsibilit ...

President Trump and his allies are waging a caustic, unprecedented campaign to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell into cutting interest rates. Powell is trying to keep his cool in the hot seat. https://t.co/yLC3gz9cxk ...

Fed's Monetary Policy & Impact - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have maintained interest rates too low for an extended period, followed by an abrupt tightening of monetary policy [1][3] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, recognizing their significant directional impact [1] - The discussion revolves around the concept of a neutral interest rate, suggesting that the prolonged period of near-zero percent interest rates is unrealistic and unsustainable [2] Housing Market & Mortgage Rates - The expectation of mortgage rates returning to 3% is deemed unlikely [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy is seen as negatively impacting the housing market, as many refinanced at 3%, creating reluctance to move with current rates around 55%-65% [4] Confidence in Central Banks - There is a lack of faith and confidence in global central banks [4] - Central bankers are viewed critically, potentially ranking high among the villains of the 21st century [5] - Despite overall skepticism, Jerome Powell is acknowledged for doing a good job in the recent 6-9 months, aligning with market perceptions [5] Interest Rate Control & Market Influence - The Federal Reserve primarily controls short-term interest rates but lacks control over longer-term rates [6] - A previous rate cut in September, when ten-year yields were at 36%, was followed by a 1% (100 basis points) increase in those yields [5]

All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...

Policy & Economy - Discussed bitcoin, interest rates, geopolitics, power production, immigration, home affordability, and wealth inequality with Congressman Jim Himes [1]

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the current monetary policy is quite restrictive [1] - The industry believes the Fed's balance sheet has contracted to near neutral after a period of significant stimulus [1] - The combination of the balance sheet and the rate structure indicates a more restrictive environment [3] Interest Rate Considerations - The industry advocates for rates to return to a more neutral level [2] - The industry emphasizes the importance of considering both the balance sheet and the rate structure, rather than solely focusing on the Fed funds rate versus the 10-year yield [2][3] Recommendations - The industry proposes presenting a cogent case to the committee arguing that rates are more restrictive than perceived by the Fed, staff, and street economists [3]

Alternative Investments and Private Credit Market - Marathon Asset Management has over $23 billion in assets under management, attracting investments from family offices, wealth channels, insurance channels, and institutional channels [1] - Direct lending and asset-based lending yield 11-12%, while opportunistic credit yields 14-16%, making them more appealing than public credit markets [2][3] - Public credit markets show tight spreads, with investment grade corporate credit at the tightest spread since the 1990s, around the 0 percentile [3] - The high yield bond index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) is inside of 300, indicating tight spreads due to a strong economy, corporate earnings, and demand for credit [4][5] Asset-Based Lending (ABL) vs Direct Lending - Asset-based lending (ABL) is lending against hard assets at 65% LTVs, uncorrelated to direct lending which is cash flow based on EBITDA [6] - The correlation coefficient between asset-based lending and direct lending is 04, indicating low correlation despite both being high-yielding asset classes [7] Interest Rate and Economic Outlook - The speaker believes the Fed was slow to raise rates and will be slow to lower them, potentially easing in September 17th after reviewing jobs and CPI reports [9][10] - The current yield curve is V-shaped with SOFR at 435, 3-month bills at 420, 2-year bills at 375, and 10-year notes at 428, which is not normalized and increases government financing costs [11][12] - The speaker suggests the normalized rate for Fed funds should be 3%, given the slowing job growth (35 jobs a month) and economic growth (12% in the first half of the year) [13][14] - The speaker's base case is that economic growth will pick up in the second half of the year, with the front end of the yield curve having 150 basis points to come down [17]

For more on the broader market, let's bring in TD Cowan's president Jeff Solomon's here at Post9. Talk about 6% sub 6% mortgage rates. You think we get it like Marvin's hopes? >> I mean, we could. I I I do think the next move for the Fed is to go lower, though. We've had this ongoing debate, right? I just don't think I think it's going to be higher for longer and I think it's because we've seen resilience in the in the in in the economy. Uh if you just take a look at, by the way, just this is something we'r ...

Traders are piling into an options wager that relies on a dovish Federal Reserve slashing interest rates by more than a quarter-point next month. That's raising the stakes for Jerome Powell's speech on Friday https://t.co/EVl6nQJdI5 ...