Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

All right, it's a holiday shortened trading week. Yay. And today is the last day of the second quarter.The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both closing at record highs on Friday. So, let's talk markets right now with Stephanie Link, the chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at High Tower Advisor. She's also a CNBC contributor.Steph, we're looking at some pretty decentsized gains in the futures this morning. The Dow's up by 225 points coming after all the gains that we've seen recently. And I think when I ...

Let's bring in Max Kentner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist to talk about this close. Max, you know, I sit here the S&P 500 at 6142. It's a couple of points from the closing high from February 19th.Uh does it make sense that we're back here. Yeah. Um I think it does.It absolutely does because when we look at the earnings picture, that actually uh does really still look resoundingly good. And when we look particularly at uh forward earnings, when we look at Q2 earnings expectation, it is actually bizarre ...

As stocks continue to rise, we talked about this. The S&P is just like 17 points off a record high right now. And my next guest says the underlying trend remains positive for equities, including for the large caps, which she likes here.Kate Morris, CIO at City Wealth. Kate, anything about the Fed here affect your your view on stocks. Look, weak dollar is certainly got to be a boost, although maybe it's not about the Fed, as Muhammad just said.Yeah. Well, look, I think the equity market is looking past anyth ...

Market Sentiment and Earnings Guidance - The market rally is driven by sentiment, technical factors, and a fundamental case related to earnings [1] - Companies initially beat estimates significantly in the first quarter, but subsequently cut full-year guidance dramatically, creating uncertainty [2][3] - The market is rallying because earnings numbers may have been cut too much, and tariffs may not be as negative as initially anticipated [4] - Wall Street strategists have started to raise their targets for EPS and closing price targets, but only slightly [5] - The situation is reminiscent of the early stages of COVID-19, where companies withdrew guidance and Wall Street slashed earnings estimates, only to raise them later [7] - First quarter earnings beat estimates by approximately $4, but full-year guidance was reduced by $10, resulting in a $14 delta [7] Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - A "little bull market" for stocks and a "little bear market" for bonds is anticipated, with stocks potentially benefiting from 1-2% economic growth despite tariffs and geopolitical unrest [8] - The estimate for next year's earnings is $300, but it may be too low because it doesn't fully reflect the potential margin enhancement from technologies like AI [9][10] - The fundamental story is turning out to be stronger than many predicted, suggesting a better bull market for earnings [11] Sector Preferences - World technology companies, particularly the "Mag Seven," are investing heavily in CapEx rollout, which is expected to pay off in the future [12][13] - There's a potential scenario where the rest of the world outperforms the S&P, and the S&P 493 outperforms the cap-weighted S&P this year, but the S&P cap rate could rebound next year as companies utilize new technologies [14]

Welcome back. Stocks near some session highs. Every sector currently green except energy led by consumer discretionary this morning.Joining us here at Post9 is Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Adviserss, head of research and Fundstrat Capital chief investment officer, also a CNBC contributor. Tom, it's good to have you. Welcome.Talk about confounding expectations, wouldn't you say. What do you make of this morning's action. Well, you know, in some ways it's not a surprise because as you know, like Art Cashion had ...

Back. It's a question almost every investor is thinking about given the uncertainty in the markets. Are stocks overvalued at current levels or not.Well, who better than the so-called Dean evaluation to weigh in. Oswerin of NYU Stern School of Business joins us now. It's good to see you.What What would your answer be. Well, if you thought stocks were fairly valued at the start of the year, you got to think they're fairly valued still because you come through a trial by fire. And it's amazing to me that stock ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Nvidia shares are up 50% from their April low, outperforming other Mag 7 stocks [1] - The market bull trend is considered underway, but short-term concerns exist due to falling company guidance [2] - Selective stock picking within the Mag 7 is advised, with overweight stances in Microsoft and Amazon maintained, and adding to Apple expected [3][4] - Professional investors showed pessimism, but the market is near a new high, suggesting a time to be less fearful [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors & Policy Impacts - Potential transformational changes in tax policy, such as expensing capital expenditure on software, could monetize the AI trade beyond the MAG 7 [6] - Expected tariff rates are decreasing, which could lead to more guidance from companies and increased optimism from professional investors [6][7] - Uncertainty remains regarding the full impact of Trump's tariffs and immigration policies on various industries [8][9] - Despite concerns, GDP growth is at 38%, averaging 25% for the first and second quarters [10] Currency & International Markets - The US dollar has lost 10% of its value since President Trump took office, which can be seen as beneficial for multinationals or as a sign of declining faith in American exceptionalism [12] - International investors, particularly in Europe, have been overweight in European stocks, but there's a growing reluctance to buy US stocks [17][19] - The dollar's weakness is beginning to slow down, with a trend towards solidification [16] - The consensus at the beginning of the year was that the dollar was overvalued, predating recent political events [21]

Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is a key factor influencing market reactions, with oil prices and defense stocks showing sensitivity to Middle East developments [1][2] - Market reactions to geopolitical news have become more subtle compared to previous months, indicating a shift from emotional responses to a "buy the news" mentality [2] - Defense stocks, such as RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Halliburton, experienced pre-market gains, suggesting a defensive trade strategy among investors amid geopolitical uncertainty [3][4] - The recent surge in defense stocks is viewed as a knee-jerk reaction to news, with historical trends indicating that such moves may not have long-term impacts [5][6] - Secular trends support defense stocks due to increased defense spending discussions in DC and NATO, but short-term movements are often knee-jerk reactions [7] Tech Sector Performance - The XLK tech ETF, heavily weighted by mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, hit all-time highs, with some components like IBM and Palantir also reaching new highs [8] - Investors tend to gravitate towards tech during technical rallies, viewing it as a defensive sector that performs well in both good and bad times [8][9] - Valuations in the tech sector are extended compared to value sectors and international markets, suggesting a need to consider fundamentals [9] Dollar Weakness and Earnings - A weaker dollar benefits multinational companies' earnings through translation effects and competitive advantages [11][12][13] - Small-cap companies with a domestic focus may not benefit as much from a weaker dollar [11] - The reasons behind dollar weakness are more important than the weakness itself; government actions like selling treasuries or punitive tariffs could negatively impact the dollar [14][15] - A slight dollar weakness from elevated levels can be beneficial for earnings and reflect a leveling out of domestic and foreign earnings [15]

So maybe Art, we'll start big picture here because I'm curious. Art, what is the latest Art Hogan target, year-end target for the S&P. Art, where are we.Yeah, so our target is 6200, which uh doesn't seem that aggressive in the here and now, but certainly felt aggressive uh back in April. So I I would tell you this. I think we've done a good job of going from a defensive first quarter where everyone was piling into things like consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, gold, and treasuries to where now we feel ...