Citi CEO Jane Fraser says merger activity is rebounding as US companies gain confidence, with a recession in the world’s largest economy looking unlikely https://t.co/xymFmKFREi ...

Target of 90-94k comes faster than you think. Market risk is maxed. First comes the 90-94k crash, what follows is early to tell now: either more downside or an explosive run to 120–140k. What’s next again is CLEAR: Recession crash in early 2026 ...

Market Trends & IPO - CLA 在纽交所首次公开募股 (IPO)，股票当日上涨 [2][3] - Robinhood 举办年度峰会，推出包括社交网络在内的新工具 [27] - Robinhood 股票今年上涨超过 200%，过去 12 个月上涨超过 500% [27][35][36] Company Performance & Strategy (CLA) - CLA 拥有 1.11 亿用户 [5] - CLA 的重点已从扩大用户群转向提高每用户收入 [6] - CLA 在美国推出银行卡 6 周后，拥有 70 万用户，候补名单上有 500 万人 [7][8] - CLA 认为其优势在于建立客户关系，成为用户的日常消费伙伴，然后追加销售服务 [10][11] - CLA 是一家银行，主要将贷款放在自己的资产负债表上，并自行进行承销 [13] - CLA 使用 AI 改善客户服务，将平均响应时间从 12 分钟缩短到 2 分钟，节省了约 4000 万美元 [17][18] - CLA 员工人数从 7400 人减少到 3000 人，员工人均收入从 45 万美元增加到超过 100 万美元 [19] - CLA 客户的平均还款期限为 40 至 60 天，这使得公司在经济衰退期间具有灵活性 [23] - CLA 客户的消费习惯没有出现经济衰退的迹象 [24] Company Strategy (Robinhood) - Robinhood 旨在构建一个金融超级应用程序，涵盖所有资产类别，并提供信息来源和交易执行能力 [31][32] - Robinhood 拥有 2600 万客户，其中一半是新投资者，平均年龄在 30 岁出头 [30] - Robinhood 的客户目前持谨慎态度，交易量接近历史高位，但正在轮换出一些最受欢迎的股票 [33][34] - Robinhood 认为其核心优势在于快速行动，并且是一家真正的金融服务技术公司 [37][38] Financial Crisis Retrospective - 2007 年，次贷危机爆发，贝尔斯登于 2008 年倒闭，成为全球金融危机的预警 [39][40] - 贝尔斯登未能支持其基金，导致客户撤回资金，无法展期商业票据 [47][48][52] - 贝尔斯登的困境导致了行业的重组，包括融资方式和参与者 [54]

A stalling labor market points to slower growth ahead in the US. A drop in stock prices on this reality would be a buying opportunity, @edwarnh argues, as long as a recession isn't on the horizon https://t.co/5FNRZJgyk8 ...

Market Outlook & Economic Indicators - The yield curve, a leading economic indicator, inverted for 784 days, the longest in US history, signaling potential economic trouble ahead [2] - Historically, a market crash (recession) has occurred within 2-6 months after the yield curve normalization, but this cycle's inversion lasted much longer, suggesting a delayed but inevitable recession [2] - The analysis suggests a high-risk period for a recessionary crash extending through Q2 2026 [2][5] - Bond market conditions (10-year yield ~405%, 2-year yield ~347%) indicate high risk, mirroring pre-crash scenarios of 2001 and 2007 [2] Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis & Trading Strategy - Despite the recessionary outlook, the analysis maintains a 90,000-94,000 USD target for Bitcoin [1][3][4][5] - The firm has already executed 70% capital sits in USDT/shorts, and the remaining 30% spot is waiting for a retest of the short zone to unload and add even more shorts [3] - The strategy involves selling 10% of spot holdings daily into strength and loading shorts around the 115,000-125,000 USD distribution zone [3] - Post 90,000-94,000 USD target, the analysis anticipates either a move towards 140,000 USD before the recession crash or an immediate recession crash [4] - Any long positions taken after a potential 90,000 USD bounce will be treated as high-risk due to the high confidence in a crash occurring between now and Q2 2026 [5]

$BTC reclaimed $112,000 and european stocks rose at the open, as analysts increasingly downplay fears of stagflation and recession triggered by horrible U.S. jobs data. By @godbole17.https://t.co/wjIljubV5N ...

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the U.S. economy, following a significant revision in the Labor Department’s job data.Slowing Economy, Low Consumer Confidence, Says DimonDimon, in a statement on Tuesday, pointed out that the U.S. economy is showing signs of “slowing down,” reported CNBC. This insight followed the Labor Department's revision of nonfarm payrolls data through March 2025, which reduced the job count by 911,000 compared to earlier estimates. The adjustment aligned wit ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 has increased by nearly 31% since April, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen by 43% during the same period [1] - Despite the market surge, approximately 43% of investors express pessimism about the next six months according to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors [1] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates due to an uncertain labor market, raising concerns among Americans about future investment conditions [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of the next recession, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 30% probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, down from 45% in April [5] Historical Context - Recessions and market corrections are a normal part of the stock market cycle, with the average bear market lasting around 286 days and bull markets exceeding 1,000 days [7] - Historical data shows that the market has consistently recovered from all past recessions and downturns, achieving positive total returns over time [9]

Group 1: Apple Inc. - Apple is set to debut its latest iPhone and Apple Watch lineups, with the iPhone 17 lineup being crucial for the company as it seeks to revive consumer interest [2][3] - The iPhone 17 Air is expected to be a thinner version but may have drawbacks such as a single camera and a smaller battery, although software tweaks could enhance its capabilities [5][6] - Analysts predict a potential price increase of up to $100 for the iPhone 17 Air, marking a significant change in pricing strategy [9] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - A significant revision to US employment data could see a reduction of up to 1 million jobs for the 12 months through March, indicating a struggling labor market [11] - Employment growth has decelerated, with an average of only 29,000 new jobs created in the last three months, which is below long-term labor supply trends [27][28] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is estimated at 30%, reflecting concerns over the labor market and economic conditions [30] Group 3: Oracle Corporation - Oracle is positioned as an AI trade, with a strong focus on cloud services and a significant customer base of approximately 400,000 [16][24] - The company has a backlog expected to increase from $138 billion to $149 billion, indicating strong demand for its services [24] - Oracle's expansion into healthcare through the Cerner acquisition has positively impacted its revenue growth [20][21] Group 4: Market Movements and Mergers - Fox Corporation's stock is down following the resolution of the Murdoch family's succession battle, which has implications for the media empire [45][46] - Anglo-American has agreed to acquire Canada's Tech Resources for over $50 billion, driven by rising copper demand linked to the electric vehicle boom [54] - Novartis is set to acquire Tormaline for $1.4 billion, significantly boosting Tormaline's share price by over 58% in pre-market trading [57]

Core Insights - The potential return to a high-tariff regime in the U.S. has sparked significant alarm among economists and financial experts, with dire predictions about its economic consequences [3][4]. - Despite initial fears, the actual negative impacts of the tariff policies have been mild or nonexistent so far, with various economic indicators showing resilience [4][38]. Inflation Impact - Initial assumptions suggested that tariffs would lead to higher inflation, but the reality is more complex, with tariffs likely causing a one-time price hike rather than ongoing inflation [6][7]. - Tariff revenues for 2026 are projected to be around $300-400 billion, representing only about 1% of total U.S. GDP, akin to a national sales tax increase [7]. - A study indicated that only 17% of the components in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index are affected by tariffs, suggesting a limited overall impact on inflation [7][8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase but remained below the two-year average, indicating stability in prices despite new tariffs [11][12]. Recession Concerns - Recession forecasts fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year, but by July, sentiment improved, with the S&P 500 achieving 32 new record highs since "Liberation Day" [15][19]. - GDP growth surged at a 3.3% annual pace in the second quarter, and consumer spending showed a year-over-year gain of 4.7%, indicating economic strength [15][17]. - Most economists surveyed have reduced their recession probability forecasts, with only 2 out of 52 seeing an increased risk [16][18]. Treasury Bond Market - Contrary to fears, the U.S. Treasury Bond market has remained stable, with the 10-year Treasury Bond yield lower than on "Liberation Day" and bond prices increasing by almost 6% since the beginning of the year [20][21]. - Investors have shown confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, even as public debt reached $30 trillion, with tariffs projected to generate approximately $3.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade [21]. Dollar Status - Predictions of a weakened dollar and loss of its reserve currency status have not materialized, with the dollar remaining dominant in international trade and finance [22][24]. - The Federal Reserve's report indicated that the dollar's share of international payments is about 50%, showing stability in its global position [25]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds has increased since April, with foreign investors returning as significant buyers of U.S. assets [26]. - The trend of foreign investment in U.S. equities and Treasury bonds has intensified, countering initial fears of a mass exodus [26]. Global Trade Dynamics - Concerns about permanent damage to global trade networks due to tariffs have not been realized, with global trade growing by $300 billion in the first half of 2025 [28][29]. - U.S. trade volumes were higher in July than in any month in 2023 or 2024, indicating resilience in trade despite tariff implementations [29][30]. Supply Chain Stability - Initial fears of supply chain disruptions have not come to fruition, with container shipping costs falling and supply chain pressure levels returning to long-term averages [32][34]. - Companies have adapted to potential tariff impacts by improving supply chain management and resilience, mitigating risks associated with tariffs [34]. Corporate Profitability - Contrary to expectations of declining corporate profits due to tariffs, S&P 500 companies reported a 6.4% revenue increase and an 11.9% earnings growth in the second quarter [36][37]. - The majority of U.S. companies exceeded analysts' earnings estimates, indicating strong corporate performance despite tariff concerns [36][37].