Legal & Political Analysis - The report highlights potential political retribution by the Trump administration, evidenced by the FBI search of John Bolton's home and office shortly before the release of Epstein files [1][13][14] - The report suggests an attempt to distract from the Epstein files release, with the Justice Department releasing audio transcripts of an interview with Ghislaine Maxwell [1][12][14] - The report raises concerns about the impartiality of Todd Blanch's interview with Ghislaine Maxwell, suggesting it was aimed at exonerating Donald Trump rather than seeking truth [11][12][17] - The report mentions a resolution opposing clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, indicating a political stance against pardoning her [12] Epstein Case & Maxwell Interview - The report emphasizes Ghislaine Maxwell's conviction as a sex trafficker and her attempts to downplay her involvement and Donald Trump's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein [1][8][10] - The report questions the credibility of Ghislaine Maxwell's statements, highlighting contradictions and potential lies during her interview [2][12][15] - The report points out that Ghislaine Maxwell was transferred to a lower security prison camp after the interview, raising suspicions [11][19] Economic Analysis - The report discusses the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by concerns about the softening labor market and the impact of tariffs [24][27][28] - The report notes that tariffs are causing prices to rise, with Goldman Sachs estimating that 70% of tariffs will be passed on to consumers by October or November [32][33] - The report suggests that the middle class's strained budgets may limit their ability to absorb higher prices, impacting the effectiveness of passing on tariff costs [33] Other - The report mentions the US government taking a 10% stake in chipmaker Intel, indicating government intervention in corporate America [24]

There's a lot going on with this meeting, I will say, and delighted to be here with you. The framework review, which we will hear more about, very complicated context, obviously. And let to tell you a little bit about how I'm seeing economic conditions in the outlook.So let's get into that. There is this dual mandate that's in question, the idea of inflation versus labor. Where are you in the continuum of which you need to be most worried about. Well, you need to be this is a time when you need to be lookin ...

It's crazy how different the market can look in just 24 hours. I made a video last night talking to you guys about why we need to listen up to when Jerome Powell speaks and this is exactly why. There was a Jackson Hole conference today with Jerome Powell and I said that it was going to be a very big conference to tap into because what's being said at these conferences and when Jerome Powell speaks the market listens and if we look at the market today we could see that it was a very good conference.In fact, ...

Market Trends & Investor Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Pal暗示可能降息，市场普遍上涨 [1][2] - 零售投资者对风险的偏好正在回归，迷因股票和加密货币等非传统资产的势头正在增强 [3] - 年轻投资者（5年及以下经验）比经验丰富的投资者（10年以上经验）更乐观，因为他们主要在牛市期间进行投资 [5][6][7] - 近一半的自主投资者认为未来12个月市场表现会更差，但大多数人（64%）认为自己的投资组合表现会更好或相同 [10] Investment Strategies & Asset Allocation - 年轻投资者倾向于投资现金、个股和加密货币 [9] - 经验丰富的投资者仍然投资于现金、个股和共同基金 [9] - 投资者对他们熟悉和舒适的领域更有信心，例如科技行业 [11][12] - 即使市场波动，投资者仍在继续投资，可能会寻找机会逢低买入 [18][19] Economic Indicators & Federal Reserve Policy - 个人消费支出（PCE）数据预计将保持相对稳定，7月份环比下降至02% [22][23] - 市场已经消化了降息预期，美联储主席的讲话打开了降息的大门 [37][38] - 如果通胀率保持在3%左右，且就业市场保持不变，美联储降息可能会重新点燃通胀 [41] - 美联储的独立性面临考验，持续的攻击和威胁可能会损害公众对美联储的信任 [48][50] Company Focus & Earnings - 市场关注人工智能巨头英伟达（Nvidia）的第二季度业绩，预计将超过分析师的预期，这得益于对其人工智能芯片的强劲需求 [20][21][52] - 投资者将密切关注有关英伟达在中国销售芯片的能力以及对今年剩余时间展望的评论 [21][53][54] - 英伟达的H20芯片以及中国政府对购买该芯片的指令也将受到关注 [53][54]

Did the market overreact to the Fed news today. The market's been trained, the stock market's been trained to rally whenever the Fed tells you they're going to cut interest rates. It's just that coming in, didn't we.Oh, I I agree. We're we're sort of rallying again on the possibility of rate cuts. We've been pricing into rate cuts for months now.So, but Jay Powell basically Goldman Sachs is at like I think three rate cuts. I don't understand why the market reacted this way when everybody and maybe everybody ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve (Fed) was in a wait-and-see mode regarding the impact of tariffs, but recent data suggests a muted impact, potentially leading to rate cuts [2] - The Fed perceives no signs of tariffs causing inflation expectations to become unanchored, viewing it as a one-off event rather than an ongoing inflationary cycle [3] - The speaker suggests Chair Powell is ready to start moving in September [3] - There was a debate within the committee about the luxury of waiting longer, possibly influenced by the August 1st payroll report [4] Inflation and Tariffs - Data suggests a more muted inflation impulse from tariffs, with some tariffs being negotiated down [5][6] - The initial tariff concerns from April, anticipating widespread increases of 20-30%, have subsided [6] - The slower impact of tariffs over time makes the Fed more comfortable that inflation expectations will remain anchored [7] Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations are considered crucial in monetary policy, but the right measure is unclear, with options including Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), consumer surveys, and business surveys [9] - The Fed has wiggle room in choosing which inflation measure to emphasize [10] - Despite past concerns about transitory inflation, people continue to believe the Fed regarding inflation expectations [10][11] Labor Market - Revised data suggests the labor market has been weakening [2][7] - Weakening labor market data supports the idea of bringing rates down [7]

But as well as these stocks have done or maybe because of it, the question many have, is evaluations gotten out of control. Well, we don't know. But let's ask somebody who does.Aswan is professor of finance at the NYU School of Business. They call him the dean of valuations for a reason. Oswath, great to have you on.Perfect day for it. Have valuations gotten a little bit stupid or are we okay. I think for the last 10 years, we've had this conversation over and over again.Markets reach a new high. >> We say ...

Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

Economic Outlook - The Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech addresses the shifting balance of risks, potentially warranting adjustments to the policy stance [1] - The labor market's unusual balance, resulting from slowing supply and demand for workers, suggests rising downside risks to employment [2] - Labor Department revisions in job growth figures for May and June altered the perception of the labor market's strength [3] Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are now feeding into goods prices, with the effects expected to be relatively short-lived, representing a one-time shift in the price level [4] - The impact of tariffs could take months or quarters to filter through the entire supply chain ecosystem [5] - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside [6] Monetary Policy - A slowing labor market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - Intense pressure from President Trump and his senior economic advisors urging the Fed to cut interest rates [5]

So, we're going to bring in Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed President, uh, to this discussion. And Loretta, it's great to have you on, and I do want to get your thoughts, your takeaways, uh, from Fed Chair Pal, and what he presented this morning. >> Well, a clear indication that he's ready, um, to move rates down, I think, based on the data he's seen so far and what he thinks is likely to happen.And I think of it as being viewed more like an insurance cut against the downside risk to the employment par ...