Market Outlook for 2026 - The market indicates positive underlying economic factors despite business challenges in the current year [2] - Broadening market trends are expected to continue, benefiting growth stocks into 2026 [3] - Momentum heading into the new year is strong, supported by earnings and a potentially stable or easing Federal Reserve policy [4] - Confusion around market leadership (Mag 7 vs broader market) is expected to persist, requiring focus on earnings and Fed policy [9] Historical Context & Potential Risks - The average bull market lasts about five years, suggesting the current one is still relatively early [6] - Stocks have only risen for four consecutive years with double-digit percentage gains once in the last 100 years, highlighting potential for a market correction [10] Supporting Factors - Constructive elements from a major bill passed this summer are beginning to materialize [7] - Clarity around tariff policy, consumer-related factors (back tax refunds), and deregulation efforts are expected to support business growth [7] - Fundamental underpinnings and earnings are supporting current valuations [8]

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot's stock is under pressure due to high interest rates, despite some improvement in home sales in recent months [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - Home sales showed improvement in October and September, with 4 million existing homes sold in both months, but many potential buyers remain hesitant [3] - Mortgage rates have decreased from 7% at the beginning of the year to around 6.2%-6.3% for 30-year loans, yet buyers are still waiting for more favorable conditions [3][5] - The stabilization of the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.15%-4.2% is not expected to provide support for the housing market [4] Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - Home Depot's recent earnings report presented a more optimistic outlook, but analysts are skeptical about the feasibility of their best-case scenario, which predicts a 4-5% increase in comparable sales [8][9] - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions in the professional contractor segment, which now accounts for 50% of its sales [10] - Analysts suggest that Home Depot may not be the best investment at this time, recommending Lowe's as a better option for those interested in the home improvement sector [10] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is advised, with a "wait and see" strategy recommended for Home Depot until there is more evidence of improving home sales and lower mortgage rates [7][11] - A proposed trading strategy involves selling cash-secured puts at a $340 strike price, with a potential profit of $4.50 per share, reflecting a neutral to bullish outlook [14][15]

At the end of that speech at Columbia, you nodded to the fact that recessions are inevitable. Fed's job It's going to forestall them as much as they can. Policymakers, jobs or that.I'm very curious when you look at the labor market in particular, the rise that we've seen in the unemployment rate, that's kind of rise we've seen customarily before recessions. How do you assess the risk of there being a recession here in the near term when you look at the labor market, for instance. So I don't see a recession ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change US interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past few months, the report added.Hammack told the Journal that the Fed ...

Why can’t the government drop ALL mortgage rates to 2% for every single family home as the primary residence ONLY.Wouldn’t that solve the housing crisis?Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone):America should have the lowest interest rates in the world! Trump will fix it!It makes no sense the wealthiest country with the dominant currency has interest rates higher than 34 other countries. ...

🚨 UPDATE: Chance of another rates cut dropped to 22%, per CME group. https://t.co/DXt6GQNc1A ...

Core Insights - The traditional retirement savings benchmark of $1 million is becoming outdated, with experts now recommending a target of $1.5 million to ensure a comfortable retirement [3][4] - The shift in retirement age to 67 and economic changes necessitate a reevaluation of retirement savings strategies, as the old 4% rule may no longer suffice [2][4] Retirement Savings Guidelines - Financial advisors previously suggested saving multiples of salary: three times by age 40, six times by 50, and over eight times by 65, translating to approximately $340,000 to $850,000 for those earning between $40,000 and $100,000 annually by ages 61-64 [2] - The new recommendation of $1.5 million allows for an annual retirement income of $60,000, providing a buffer for rising costs and unexpected expenses [3] Factors Influencing Retirement Costs - Location significantly impacts retirement budgets, as living costs vary across the U.S., necessitating personalized savings goals [6] - Marital status affects Social Security benefits, with married couples able to maximize benefits, but survivors face income loss upon a spouse's death [6] - Retirees must account for healthcare, housing, and lifestyle expenses, ensuring their savings can cover these without financial strain [6] Legislative Impact - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) signed in July 2025 introduces temporary tax deductions for seniors, potentially exempting about 90% of retirees from paying income tax on Social Security [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Cleveland Fed president expresses skepticism about the recent cooler inflation reading for November, suggesting it should be taken "with a grain of salt" [1] Group 1 - The Cleveland Fed president will have a vote on interest rates in 2026, indicating her future influence on monetary policy decisions [1]

Global Economic Overview - A higher nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism, and competitive currency devaluations, leading to a higher equilibrium for inflation and interest rates [2][20] - Global activity remained resilient in Q4 2025, despite renewed tariff pressures and persistent geopolitical tensions [4][20] - The US economy experienced moderate growth with easing inflation pressures and rising policy and trade uncertainty [4][8] United States - In Q4 2025, the US economy showed slowing but still positive activity, with disinflationary trends and intensifying policy and trade uncertainty [8][11] - Payroll gains decelerated, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and job cuts surged, indicating a softening labor market [8][11] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, concluding quantitative tightening [11] Europe - Economic conditions in Europe improved modestly, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to a 17-month high of 52.5 in October, although recovery remained uneven [12][15] - Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.1% in October and 2.2% in November, complicating the ECB's ability to guide markets towards a clearer easing trajectory [12][15] - The quarter reaffirmed a fragile but stabilizing growth trajectory, constrained by tight financial conditions and external trade headwinds [15] China and Emerging Markets - China maintained a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing weak domestic demand and property stress [16][20] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained an accommodative stance, relying on targeted liquidity injections to stabilize the property sector [16][20] - Asian equities modestly outperformed global peers, supported by strong AI-related demand and solid earnings [19][20] Investment Conclusions - The global economy continues to show resilience despite trade frictions and policy uncertainty, with a low probability of a deep US recession [20] - A moderate re-acceleration in global activity could revive cyclical inflation, emphasizing the importance of corporate earnings [20] - The investment strategy prioritizes capital preservation while using volatility and dispersion as opportunities for active management [20]