Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Market Trends & Interest Rate Expectations - Goldman Sachs lowered US Treasury yields forecasts [1] - The adjustment reflects an increased likelihood of earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Fed [1]

Let's bring in the aforementioned pioneer of the bond vigilante term, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research. Ed, this is an environment where it's surfacing again, that term bond vigilantes, but they don't seem to be nearly as effective of vigilanteism as the original bond vigilantes that helped you coin the phrase. Correct. Correct.Well, you know this they were most active in the 1980s and then in the 1990s inflation came down and the administration back then the Clinton administration recognized t ...

Market Trends & Interest Rates - Treasury yields are rising as investors react to weaker jobs data and the potential impact of President Trump's tax and spending package [1] - Interest rates may have peaked in terms of low rates, particularly given the holiday-shortened week [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield continues to move higher [3] Labor Market Analysis - ADP small business job loss data at 8:15 AM EST made some traders nervous, causing yields to drop initially [2] - A potentially weakening labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - Uncertainty remains whether the day's report is indicative of the larger jobs number to be released tomorrow [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Monetary Policy - A weakening labor market could hasten the Fed's easing campaign [4] - Fed fund futures gravitated towards the upside, indicating expectations of more easing [4] - The market is unsure if today's report is a one-off or a clue about tomorrow's jobs number, impacting expectations for the Fed [5] Bond Market Dynamics - The 2-year yield reflects the most information regarding the Fed [3] - The 210 spread (difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) bounced back and steepened [3] - The D's contract (likely referring to a specific futures contract) initially reflected the two-year yield's movement but almost returned to unchanged [5]

Fiscal Unsustainability & Debt - US national debt is a staggering $37 trillion, and a proposed bill could add at least $3 trillion more over the next decade [3] - The bill under discussion is projected to increase deficits by approximately $4 trillion [8][19][20] - The US is on a fiscally unsustainable trajectory, with Social Security and Medicare facing potential shortfalls in less than a decade [7] - Increased debt could lead to higher interest rates for consumers and the government, impacting borrowing costs for cars, homes, and credit cards [4] Impact of Proposed Legislation - The bottom 40% of the population is expected to be worse off as a result of the bill, potentially losing health insurance and access to food stamps [9][21] - Over 10 million people are likely to lose their healthcare due to the proposed legislation [5] - The bottom 10% could be $700 worse off annually, while the top 1% may receive a $30,000 tax cut, described as a reverse Robin Hood effect [21] Trade War & Inflation - Trade wars and tariffs are expected to worsen inflation [5] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it would have cut interest rates if not for the uncertainty caused by tariffs and the trade war [5][23] Global Confidence & US Economy - There's a growing concern about declining global confidence in the US's ability to repay its debts [11] - The Fed paused on lowering interest rates due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's sweeping trade policy [25]

Labor Market Analysis - Job vacancies significantly increased, reaching a 6-month high and exceeding forecasts [1] - The labor market isn't showing signs of weakening, remaining relatively stable [2][3] - There are 7769000 job openings [2] Bond Market Impact - Strength in the labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - Two-year and ten-year yields closed at their lowest levels since May 1st prior to Chairman Powell's comments [3] - Rate reversals occurred around 9:30 Eastern time following J Pal's headlines [4] - S&P Global PMIs and Jolts number contributed to upward volatility [4][5] - Major flattening observed, with two-year yields rising more sharply than 10 and 30-year yields [5][6] Currency and Equities - The dollar's performance mirrors the 10-year chart, turning around at the same time and moving higher [5] - Positive indicators for equities and potentially higher rates [2]

Joining me now is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist and CIO. Uh Mike, great to have you uh with me here. It's it's it's a fascinating round trip we've had, right, since early uh I guess since February in a sense.Where does the market sit in your mind relative to all the the kind of important drivers, right. I mean, we had this tariff policy scare and then a little bit of relief off of that. But in terms of the fundamental picture, technicals, demand for stocks, and all the rest of it. ...

Interest Rate Trends - US government bond yields are decreasing despite discussions about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The yield curve is flattening, with two-year and ten-year Treasury yields approaching their lowest levels since early May [3] - Global markets may not always trade on fundamentals, contributing to a global trend of lower interest rates [2] Currency Dynamics - The dollar is weakening, reaching its lowest point since February 2022 [4] - The euro is strengthening against the dollar, reaching its strongest level since September 2021 [4] - The difference between the US 10-year yield and the German 10-year yield is approximately 163 basis points, the closest it has been since early April [3] Economic Implications - A weaker dollar benefits multinational corporations [4] - A stronger euro may pose challenges for the Eurozone economy, which is heavily reliant on exports [4] - The current US administration's budget, even if passed, may not significantly address the deficit in the short term [2]

Geopolitical & Economic Stance - The country's global image is improving [1] - Military action was taken to prevent a nation from acquiring nuclear weapons [1] - The country faces $9 trillion in debt obligations this year [1] - The government intends to address the debt by initially using short-term solutions, anticipating future interest rate reductions [1] - Trade policies will be influenced by how other countries treat the nation [1] - The country will implement tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on goods from countries allowed to trade with the United States [1] Monetary Policy - The government expresses dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve leadership [1] - The government aims to appoint individuals to the Federal Reserve who will lower interest rates [1]

I honestly think that investors today are more rightly focused on our fiscal trajectory today than they were 10 12 years ago. I do think the the the deficit and fiscal picture is potentially much more risky is potentially at risk of crowding out investments and and consumption because of the push in interest rates higher from the types of debt and deficits that we're seeing. When I look at American history, I see examples of how our political system was able to come together and really uh change our fiscal ...