Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported a 15% increase in first-quarter profit, driven by record revenue in equities trading and improved fixed income results [1][2] - The bank's profit rose to $4.74 billion, or $14.12 per share, compared to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, a year earlier [2] - Market volatility and uncertainty over tariffs are influencing investor sentiment and economic projections [1][6] Financial Performance - Equities trading revenue surged by 27% to a record $4.2 billion as investors adjusted their portfolios in response to new tariffs [5] - Fixed income, currency, and commodities trading revenue increased by 2% to $4.4 billion [5] - Investment banking fees fell by 8% to $1.9 billion in the quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead [6] Market Context - The S&P 500 index has dropped approximately 9% year-to-date, reflecting broader market turbulence [6] - Concerns over tariffs and trade barriers are leading to caution among corporate clients, which may limit growth in the coming months [6][10] - Goldman's shares have decreased by 12% since the announcement of tariffs, while competitors JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also seen declines [8] Asset Management - Revenue from Goldman's asset and wealth management division fell by 3% to $3.68 billion, despite managing a record $3.17 trillion in assets [9] - The bank set aside $287 million for credit losses, a decrease from $318 million the previous year [10] Executive Compensation - CEO David Solomon received an $80 million stock bonus to remain in his position for another five years, alongside a similar retention bonus for President John Waldron [11] - There is pushback from proxy advisers regarding the perceived excessiveness of these compensation packages [14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a recession is increasing due to tariff policies, which could lead to a worldwide economic slowdown as prices rise significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco operates in the consumer staples sector, focusing on essential products, which typically perform better during recessions [3]. - The company's revenue forecast for the next 12 months is $1,024.03, indicating a 6.29% upside from the current price of $963.41 [4]. - Food accounts for approximately 54% of Costco's total revenue, with gasoline contributing an additional 12% [4]. - Costco's Kirkland Signature brand is priced about 20% lower than national brands, providing a competitive edge during economic downturns [5]. - Despite exposure to non-food items (26% of revenue), Costco's strong membership renewal rate of 91% during the pandemic helps mitigate risks [6]. Group 2: Dollar General - Dollar General is also positioned in the consumer staples sector, focusing on low-cost essentials, which is advantageous in recessionary periods [7]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for Dollar General is $94.75, reflecting a 6.33% upside from the current price of $89.11 [8]. - Consumables make up 82% of Dollar General's total revenue, including essential items like food and personal hygiene products [9]. - The company's strategy of maintaining low price points makes it a favorable option for consumers during tough economic times [10]. Group 3: TJX Companies - TJX operates in the consumer discretionary sector but employs an off-price strategy, selling brand-name goods at significant discounts [11]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for TJX is $135.76, indicating a 5.88% upside from the current price of $128.22 [12]. - TJX has historically outperformed during recessions, with shares rising 30% in the 2001 recession while the S&P 500 fell [13]. - Analysts have identified TJX as a top pick for potential recession resilience, despite underperforming the S&P 500 in 2020 [14].

After the president announced his tariff plan and the stock market plunged, many experts believe the probability of a recession in the United States has increased sharply. However, in this video, longtime Fool.com contributors Matt Frankel and Tyler Crowe each discuss a stock they'd buy right now, even with a recession likely to occur. *Stock prices used were the morning prices of April 9, 2025. The video was published on April 11, 2025. The market has dropped quite a bit, and many experts see things gettin ...

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...

Core Insights - The stock market has experienced significant volatility following President Trump's announcement of severe tariffs, with a majority of stocks remaining in the red despite a subsequent pause on some levies [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded a 6% loss from April 2 through 2:45 p.m. EDT on the following Friday, marking both its largest daily percentage gain since 2008 and its steepest daily percentage loss since 2020 during this period [2][3]. - Approximately 90% of the 500 stocks listed on the S&P have declined since the tariff announcement, reflecting concerns over a potential recession and international business dealings [3]. Sector Analysis - Healthcare stocks have shown resilience, with UnitedHealth Group leading gains at 15%, driven by an unexpected increase in Medicare Advantage plans [4]. - Other healthcare companies like Elevance Health and CVS Health also saw stock increases of 3% and 2%, respectively [4]. - Non-healthcare stocks that performed well include discount retailers such as Ross Stores (up 7%), TJX (up 3%), and Walmart (up 3%), as well as defense contractors like General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin, which saw increases ranging from less than 1% to 5% [5][6]. Underperformers - The worst-performing stocks since April 2 include Charles River Laboratories (down 34%), Warner Bros. Discovery (down 25%), and several energy companies like APA Corporation and Devon Energy, which saw declines of 30% and 26% respectively [7]. - Among companies valued at $100 billion or more, energy giants Chevron and ConocoPhillips, along with Texas Instruments, Bank of America, and Bristol-Myers Squibb, also faced significant losses [7]. Volatility and Market Sentiment - The S&P has experienced at least 1.5% movement in six of the seven trading days following the tariff announcement, indicating heightened volatility [8]. - The "magnificent seven" tech stocks, including Apple and Tesla, have largely declined, with Apple and Tesla both down 12%, attributed to their reliance on revenue from China [9]. - Market volatility is characterized by an average intraday move of 5% for the S&P, positioning April among the four most volatile months in the last 46 years [10].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the economy facing considerable turbulence due to trade wars, persistent inflation, and fiscal deficits, placing the odds of a recession at a 50-50 chance [1][2] - Dimon noted that analysts are likely to reduce their earnings forecasts for the S&P 500, projecting zero growth down from an earlier estimate of about 10% [5] Group 2: JPMorgan's Financial Performance - JPMorgan reported strong first-quarter earnings, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue, and slightly raised its guidance for net interest income [3] - The bank's credit performance was solid, with stable net charge-offs and lower nonperforming assets compared to the previous quarter, while building credit reserves by about $1 billion [3][6] Group 3: Capital Reserves and Ratios - JPMorgan ended the first quarter with a common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 15.4%, which is 300 basis points higher than at the start of the pandemic, indicating significant additional capital [7] Group 4: Trade Concerns - Dimon's primary concern revolves around the current state of tariffs and the potential for a trade war, with U.S. tariffs on China at 145% and China's retaliatory tariffs at 125% [8] - The CEO emphasized the importance of safety and freedom for democracy over short-term economic performance, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the China issue [9] Group 5: Global Trade Implications - Dimon acknowledged that JPMorgan's status as a global player may affect how clients and countries perceive American banks, but he remains hopeful for beneficial trade deals from the Trump administration [10] - The ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariffs will significantly impact the economy and the perception of the U.S. as a reliable trade partner [13]

Economic Outlook - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink indicated that the U.S. economy has weakened significantly, suggesting that growth may turn negative and stating, "I think we're very close, if not in, a recession now" [1] - Fink expressed concerns about rising fears of an economic slowdown following President Trump's announcement of widespread tariffs, which led to a stock market sell-off [1][2] - The temporary pause on some tariffs for 90 days has not restored confidence in the economy, according to Fink, who anticipates a continued slowdown due to prolonged uncertainty [2] Consumer and Business Sentiment - Surveys indicate a decline in sentiment among consumers and business leaders, although some economic indicators like job growth and retail sales have remained relatively stable [3] - Fink noted that consumers may have stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariffs, potentially obscuring underlying economic weaknesses [3] BlackRock's Financial Performance - BlackRock's first-quarter financial results were mixed, with adjusted earnings per share of $11.30 exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $10.14, while revenue of $5.28 billion fell short of the $5.34 billion consensus [4] - The company reported $84 billion in net inflows during the quarter, bringing total assets under management to nearly $11.6 trillion [5] - Following the earnings report, BlackRock's shares experienced a slight increase of less than 1% in morning trading [5]

Jamie Dimon reiterated his warning about a turbulent US economy in JPMorgan's first-quarter earnings report on Friday, as the banking giant reported earnings that beat Wall Street's expectations. JPMorgan's net revenue rose 8% year-on-year to $45.3 billion, driving net income up 9% to $14.6 billion.The bank bolstered its provision for credit losses — money set aside in anticipation of bad debts — by $973 million to $3.3 billion in the first three months of this year, citing a worse macroeconomic outlook. ...

Financial Performance - JPMorgan Chase & Co. is expected to report quarterly earnings of $4.64 per share for the first quarter, an increase from $4.44 per share in the same period last year [1] - The projected quarterly revenue is $44.14 billion, compared to $41.93 billion a year earlier [1] Market Sentiment - CEO Jamie Dimon warned that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have significantly increased the risk of a recession, following President Trump's tariff policies that destabilized financial markets [2] - JPMorgan shares fell by 3.1%, closing at $227.11 [2] Analyst Ratings - B of A Securities analyst maintained a Buy rating but reduced the price target from $285 to $284 [7] - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst maintained a Market Perform rating and raised the price target from $257 to $264 [7] - Piper Sandler analyst maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $240 to $275 [7] - Oppenheimer analyst downgraded the stock from Outperform to Perform [7] - Citigroup analyst maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $215 to $250 [7]

Group 1: Company Overview - Capital One Financial is one of the largest regional banks in the United States, primarily known for its credit card business, which constitutes approximately 50% of its total loan portfolio [4] - The bank has $363 billion in customer deposits and a significant branch network, mainly in the Washington D.C. metro area [4] - Capital One is a highly profitable institution, boasting a net interest margin of 7.03%, significantly higher than the 2%-3% range of most large U.S. banks [5] Group 2: Business Model and Financials - The bank's credit card exposure makes its business cyclical, but its strong margins provide some protection during economic downturns [6] - Capital One's current credit card net charge-off rate is about 6%, with an interest expense of approximately 3.2% on deposits, while the average credit card interest rate in the U.S. is around 24% [6] - In addition to credit cards, Capital One is a major auto lender and has a substantial portfolio of commercial loans [7] Group 3: Acquisition and Growth Potential - Capital One is nearing the completion of its all-stock acquisition of Discover, which has recently received approval from the U.S. Department of Justice [8] - This merger will significantly expand Capital One's credit card business, as Discover has roughly three times the number of account holders, providing cross-selling opportunities for other banking products [9] - Discover operates its own payment network, making the merger advantageous by creating potential savings and growth opportunities for Capital One [11] Group 4: Investment Perspective - Capital One has a strong track record of delivering substantial returns for investors, with a total return of 4,100% since its 1994 IPO, outperforming the S&P 500 [14] - Currently, Capital One trades at 5% below its book value and approximately 9.5 times forward earnings estimates, indicating a potential investment opportunity for risk-tolerant investors [15]