Economic Data & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledges a slight degradation in the scope of economic surveys but expresses concern about the direction of travel regarding the accuracy and reliability of US economic measurement [4] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of accurate economic data for itself, Congress, and businesses to understand the state of the economy, including growth levels [4][5][6] - The Fed notes that current interest rates are at higher levels, providing significantly more room for cuts compared to periods of very low interest rates [15] Inflation & Tariffs - Retailers anticipate tariff-related inflation to become more apparent in future data, as current sales reflect inventory from previous months [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the tariff impact will be passed on to consumers; the effect could be lower or higher than expected [10] - Companies may increase prices on non-tariffed goods to compensate for losses incurred due to tariffs on price-elastic goods [11][12] - The Fed acknowledges the possibility of companies increasing prices on necessities, even if not subject to tariffs, to offset losses from tariffed goods, as seen in past tariff episodes [12][13] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Congress is considering a proposal to cut $56 million from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns about the agency's ability to collect accurate data and provide reliable indicators [3]

Retail Sector Overview - Investors are increasingly nervous about the retail sector due to concerns over tariffs impacting consumer spending and the potential for a recession [1] - The S&P 500 Retail Composite has declined by 1.8% year-to-date as of June 18, while the S&P 500 index has increased by 1.7% [1] Home Depot - Home Depot is the leading home improvement retailer, generating approximately $160 billion in sales from nearly 2,350 stores in the latest fiscal year [3] - The company faces challenges tied to the broader economy and housing market, with same-store sales falling by 0.3% in the fiscal first quarter ending May 4, and management projecting a modest 1% growth for the year [4] - Despite a 1.9% decline in stock price over the past year, Home Depot's P/E ratio remains at 24, lower than the S&P 500's 29 [6] Target - Target has experienced sales declines due to macroeconomic factors and tariff policies, with fiscal first-quarter same-store sales dropping by 3.8% [7][8] - The company has lowered its earnings expectations for the year, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9, down from a previous range of $8.80 to $9.80 [9] - Target's stock price has decreased by over 33% in the last year, with its P/E ratio falling from 16 to 10, presenting a potential buying opportunity for patient investors [10]

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the Equityverse. Today we're going to talk about the year-to- date ROI of the S&P 500. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Making a lot of short videos. As I said, I'll be traveling uh for the next week or so.Uh so, by the time you see these videos, you know, who knows how old they're going to be, but I just want ...

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The market economy is inherently subject to boom and bust cycles, even with Federal Reserve intervention [1] - For active portfolio management, gaining a personal understanding of the economy is crucial [2] - Index funds are recommended for bedrock investing, while individual stocks are suitable for discretionary investments [2] Economic Indicators & Sector Sensitivity - Key stock groups can signal an impending economic slowdown, especially when employment numbers are strong [4] - Certain sectors are more economically sensitive and tend to be affected early in a recession [4] Information Sources - Traditional methods are still necessary to understand the economy [4] - Stay informed through various channels, including following Jim Kramer on X (formerly Twitter), emailing madmoney@cnbc.com, or visiting madmoney.cnbc.com [5]

All right, let's talk markets. Ahead of a big week, investors paying close attention to fighting between Israel and Iran as well as the Fed. The central bank's going to be issuing its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.And right now, we want to bring in Lori Calvacina. She is head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And Lori, we thought we had a little bit of idea of how the markets were headed.We've been looking at inflation coming down. We thought maybe that was going to help the Fed get ...

In 2014-15, we had what uh economists call a silent recession in the US. We didn't see growth contract for the whole country. But in this area and other manufacturing areas, there was a big downturn.Um what was it like here. Uh it was bad. People have adapted.I think the uh frenzy that went on after uh were coming into 14 were uh especially the oil companies, the big independents that were drilling uh just to drill as much as they could, just to get as much oil as they could. Uh they learned a lesson in tha ...

K. Thank you. That's NBC's Kier Simmons.You bet. Joining us now, Goldman Sachs of Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan, who is former Dallas Sed president. And you know what we're going to talk about.Obviously, we're CPI, PPI, things like that. Uh Rob, but uh at this point uh we have um uh obviously been sort of upended uh by what happened in the last 24 hours or so. Does it change anything for for as far as the Fed's calculus goes.Um I think the market reaction there's a market reaction obviously in oil. You see gold ...

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - The market has shown resilience with a V-shaped recovery, and investors should embrace volatility as it favors long-term value buyers [1] - Despite major market averages being in the black for the year, many individual stocks, especially in the Russell 2000, are still down significantly, presenting value opportunities [4] - Stock picking is expected to outperform buying indexes, offering better sleep-at-night valuations and generous dividend yields [11] Undervalued Sectors & Stocks - The energy sector, particularly Sevitas Resources, is attractive due to being hit hard, offering a big dividend yield and low PE ratio while remaining profitable [5][6] - Pharmaceutical companies like Merc are viewed as high quality, trading at a PE around 11 with a 4% dividend yield, lower than its historical valuation [6] - Whirlpool, the appliance maker, offers a yield over 7% with a PE in the 9-10 range, anticipating support from lower interest rates later in the year [8] - Target, the discount retailer, has a low valuation relative to its history and a dividend yield pushing 5% [8][9] - UPS, the package shipping company, aligns with the theme of low valuations and generous dividend yields [9] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - Good news rate cuts are anticipated throughout the year, although immediate cuts are unlikely due to tariff uncertainties and high inflation expectations [12][13] - Historically, stocks have performed well regardless of Fed tightening or easing, rising or falling interest rates, or high or low inflation [14] - Value stocks have historically lost only a couple percent on average during recessions, with spectacular returns of 30-40% coming out of recessions [15][16] Portfolio Valuation - The portfolio's forward earnings trade at 14 times, compared to the S&P 500's 23 times forward earnings [10] - The portfolio's overall dividend yield is 250 basis points (25%) versus 130 basis points (13%) for the S&P 500 [10]

Major companies like Walmart, Mattel, and Ford have all suggested they're going to need to raise consumer prices as the tariffs hit them. Some companies have already had to raise prices, like Stanley Black and Dicker. So, here's what you said.Nobody's making this stuff up. Here's what you said. Walmart will be absorbing some of the tariffs.Some may get passed on to consumers. Do American consumers pay the tariffs. Again, uh, Senator, you are cherry-picking because Walmart makes decisions based on their cust ...