Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing significant challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, prompting major manufacturers to collectively reduce production by 30% to address supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a continuous increase in production capacity, but demand is weak due to reduced component orders, leading to inventory accumulation [2]. - The average net profit for the photovoltaic glass industry has dropped to a historical low of negative 362 yuan per ton, indicating severe profitability issues [1]. Production Adjustments - Major photovoltaic glass manufacturers have decided to implement a collective production cut of 30% to improve the supply-demand balance, with expectations that this adjustment will take time to stabilize the industry [1][2]. - Some companies, such as 福莱特 and 旗滨集团, have indicated that they are currently operating normally and have not yet received formal reduction notices, suggesting variability in production responses among firms [2]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the photovoltaic industry may see a significant reduction in production in the second half of the year, with potential cuts of 10% to 15% expected, and daily melting capacity could decrease to around 90,000 tons by year-end [3]. - The industry is anticipated to improve by 2025, driven by supportive policies from both supply and demand sides [3]. Related Companies - 凯盛新能 is investing approximately 1.399 billion yuan in a new project to build a 2000t/d photovoltaic component ultra-thin packaging material production line [4]. - 信义光能 is expected to benefit from potential supply-side reforms in the solar energy sector, particularly regarding polysilicon pricing [4]. - 福莱特玻璃 has had its earnings forecasts downgraded by 15%, 10%, and 9% for 2025-2027 due to unexpected production from second and third-tier companies, but is still expected to see significant quarterly earnings increases due to rising product prices [5][6].

分布式光伏"入市"新规落地一个月，行业正在经历政策调整期。 今年初出台的《分布式光伏发电开发建设管理办法》（下称"管理办法"）和《关于深化新能源上网电价 市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》（下称"136号文"）规定，4月30日前并网的工商业项目可锁 定固定电价，5月31日前并网项目仍享受保障性收购，而6月1日后新项目需通过市场化竞价确定电价。 随后，分布式光伏在今年5月31日前出现"抢装潮"。前5个月，国内光伏新增装机规模近200GW，触摸 到年初机构预测的2025年全年装机量的下限。 政策节点过后，新建项目将从"保量保价"走向"不保量不保价"。收益的不确定性，既考验着分布式光伏 项目的开发逻辑，也考验着企业的综合运营能力，相关上市公司积极谋求升级转型。 前5月新增装机近200GW 国家能源局发布的最新统计数据显示，今年1~5月，国内新增光伏装机197.85GW，同比增长150%。其 中，单5月全国新增光伏装机92.92GW，同比增长388%。作为对比，2024年全年，国内新增光伏装机量 为277.57GW，同比增长28.3%。 今年初，中国光伏行业协会给出预测，2025年全年中国光伏新增装机规模预计为2 ...

Group 1 - Multiple companies have responded to rumors of production cuts, indicating a potential shift in the market dynamics for glass products [1] - The main futures market for glass has stopped its decline during the night trading session, suggesting a stabilization in prices [1] - Experts believe that if photovoltaic glass manufacturers collectively implement production cuts, it could benefit the recovery of glass prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is undergoing a significant reduction in production, with major companies planning to cut output by approximately 30% to address supply-demand imbalances and improve market conditions [2][6]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing challenges, with a total reduction of 31,091 tons per day since July, achieving a reduction rate of about 26%, nearing the target of 30% [3]. - As of June, domestic supply of photovoltaic glass was approximately 54GW, with demand around 49-50GW, resulting in a monthly surplus of about 8-9GW, equating to a glass surplus of 350,000-400,000 tons [3]. - Current inventory levels are high, with stock estimated at 31-32 days, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [3]. Price Dynamics - The price of photovoltaic glass has dropped over 70% from its peak of 40 yuan per square meter in 2020, leading to financial strain on many companies [4]. - The market has seen continuous price declines since June, with some prices falling below 11 yuan per square meter, causing many companies to struggle to cover costs [3][4]. Company Responses - Major companies are adapting to the market conditions by either reducing production or focusing on long-term customer relationships rather than engaging in price wars [4][7]. - Companies like 福莱特 and 信义光能 hold over 50% of the market share, with 福莱特 reporting a revenue of 18.683 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.2% year-on-year, and a net profit decline of 63.52% [4]. - 亚玛顿 is planning to invest in a new production line in the UAE to leverage local resources and enhance its competitive edge in the photovoltaic glass sector [6][7]. Future Outlook - The anticipated production cuts are expected to stabilize prices and improve the supply-demand balance in the photovoltaic glass market [7]. - The industry is projected to gradually move towards a healthier and more sustainable development trajectory as supply conditions improve and relevant policies are implemented [7].

| 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | --- | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 他 研 究 开源晨会 0702 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.601 | | 医药生物 | 1.804 | | 银行 | 1.535 | | 有色金属 | 1.489 | | 公用事业 | 1.046 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.182 | | 商贸零售 | -0.788 | | 通信 | -0.452 | | 传媒 | -0.376 | | 电力设备 | -0.373 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"两重"接力支撑 PMI，预计 Q2 GDP 约 5.2%——兼评 6 月 PM ...

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers have collectively decided to reduce production by 30% to address the supply-demand imbalance in the market [1][4] - The reduction in production is expected to decrease the glass supply to approximately 45GW in July [1][4] - Experts indicate that if the collective production cut is successfully implemented, it could help in the recovery of glass prices [1][3] Group 2 - Several photovoltaic glass companies have responded to the production cut news, stating that they are currently operating normally and have not received formal notices for production halts [2] - Companies like Aiyamaton are looking to expand overseas to alleviate competitive pressures in the domestic market, with plans to invest in a new production line in the UAE [2] - The photovoltaic glass industry has been experiencing continuous losses, with the average profit margin declining significantly over the past weeks [5] Group 3 - The supply side of photovoltaic glass has already begun to reduce production since June, with a total of 3,850 tons/day capacity being cut or idled [4] - The demand side has weakened, leading to an increase in inventory levels among glass manufacturers [4] - As of June 30, the price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass dropped by 5.13% to 18.5 yuan/m², while the price of 2.0mm coated glass fell by 4.35% to 11.0 yuan/m² [5]

周度报告——光伏玻璃 亏损程度明显加深，光伏玻璃行业减产持续 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 7 月 1 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/6/27 当周）： 截至 6 月 27 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 11 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 18 元/ 平米，亦环比上周持平。当前光伏玻璃价格创历史新低，市场竞 争加剧。 上周国内光伏玻璃供应端继续减产，无光伏玻璃产线冷修，有三 家企业堵窑口减产，合计堵窑口 10 个。随着行业库存压力持续 累积，亏损程度加深将继续对生产企业生产计划造成负面影响。 能 源 目前光伏玻璃需求端仍偏弱，月末阶段订单明显不足。本周进入 7 月份，需求表现预计与 6 月份相比波动不大。 化 工 上周处于月末阶段，订单明显不足，行业库存增幅加大，短期供 大于需的局面难以扭转，累库趋势仍将延续。 上周行业毛利润大幅下滑，亏损程度进一步加深。近期行业累库 压力逐步加剧，部分企业低价加速抢单出货，光伏玻璃利润水平 持续下滑。 ★ 供需分析： 随着行业亏损程度持续加深，将倒逼光伏玻璃企业加速减产冷 修，7 月份需求表 ...

风范股份（601700）公告，公司拟与控股子公司晶樱光电签署股权转让协议，以自有资金4800万元收购 晶樱光电下属全资孙公司扬州旭樱新能源科技有限公司及其下属全资公司的8个光伏电站项目公司100% 股权。交易完成后，扬州旭樱将成为风范股份的全资孙公司。此次交易旨在梳理公司业务结构，突出板 块业务特征。交易不构成关联交易，也不构成重大资产重组。交易已于2025年6月30日经公司第六届董 事会第十四次会议审议通过，无需提交股东会审议。交易对手方为公司控股公司，不存在可能或已经造 成公司对其利益倾斜的其他关系。交易标的公司最近主要财务数据显示，截至2025年5月31日，资产总 额为2251.36万元，负债总额为2214.58万元，净资产为36.78万元，营业收入为40.14万元，营业利润为 13.61万元，净利润为13.27万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longi Green Energy held its 2024 annual shareholder meeting on June 30, where all proposals were approved, including board member elections and management changes [1] Group 1: Management Changes - The new board consists of 9 members, including 5 non-independent directors and 3 independent directors, with the founder Li Zhenguo stepping down to focus on research [1] - Zhong Baoshan will assume both the chairman and general manager roles, ensuring continuity in operations and clearer authority distribution [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - Longi Green Energy's HPBC 2.0 module production reached 2GW in June, with targets of 3GW in September and 4GW in November, aiming for an annual capacity equivalent to 50GW by year-end [1] - Current silicon wafer operating rate is approximately 60%, with battery production at full capacity and module operating rates between 70%-75% [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Discussions at the shareholder meeting included topics such as BC battery research and the need for industry consolidation to address internal competition [1] - Longi Green Energy is focusing on hydrogen energy as a key growth area, currently in the incubation stage due to global decarbonization demands [1] - There are ongoing technical challenges with perovskite technology, but Longi has a research team with goals set for market entry by 2030 [1]