Mike, it's great to see you. So, a little bit of good, a little bit of bad here. The stock is going up.What was your read on the numbers. Yeah, the the miss was really small. Uh, you know, the same sort of sales missed by like 10 basis points and it was the best comp that they've had in about two years.A lot of the underlying metrics are showing, you know, better demand, not where we were, you know, many years ago during the pandemic, but but certainly a lot better than the post-pandemic era. And again, the ...

Consumer & Market Trends - Home Depot's primary consumers are homeowners, typically dual-income households with higher earnings, experiencing strong employment and wage growth [1] - Consumers are still spending, but a shift is observed towards smaller ticket categories, while larger ticket discretionary categories are experiencing weakness [2] - High interest rates are causing consumers to delay larger, finance-dependent projects like kitchen and bath renovations [3] Impact of Interest Rates - The industry is trying to determine if project activity is delayed or permanently derailed due to high rates [4] - Anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to unlock pent-up demand for larger projects [5] - Lower rates and increased housing market activity are projected to boost demand for big-ticket projects [6] Home Depot's Strategy - Home Depot is positioning itself to capitalize on the re-emergence of demand for large projects, particularly through professional contractors [6]

Consumer Spending Trends - UK consumers are increasing spending on branded goods for home use [1] Regulatory and Data Privacy - The UK government is no longer requiring Apple to provide data on American users [1]

Two-Thirds Of Consumers Cut Spending Before Tariffs Even Hit https://t.co/gHkhwjlal4 https://t.co/gHkhwjlal4 ...

Industry Trends - Some restaurant chains are defying the consumer gloom playing out in fast food [1]

Accounting Changes & Gross Margins - Walmart's gross margins are expected to appear strong in the upcoming report due to a change in accounting methods related to tariff costs [1] - The impact of this accounting change is expected to be temporary and reverse over time [2][4] - Analysts understand the reason for the margin increase and will not project it forward, expecting it to normalize in future quarters [3][4] Consumer Spending & Retail Performance - Overall retail sales remain strong, indicating continued consumer spending [6] - Consumers are prioritizing spending on essential needs rather than discretionary wants [7] - Defensive retailers, particularly those in auto parts and grocery, are outperforming discretionary retailers [5][7][8] Defensive vs Discretionary Retailers - Defensive retailers like Dollar General, O'Reilly Auto, Walmart, Kroger, and BJ's are performing well [5][7][8] - Ulta Beauty is an outperformer in the discretionary sector due to easing competitive pressures [5][9][10] - Most defensive retailers tracked (10 out of 12) have outperformed the market year-to-date [11] - Costco, considered a defensive retailer, has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, with its stock up approximately 7% [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Retail Sector - **Key Insights**: The retail sales data indicates a mixed performance, with a notable increase in goods spending but a decline in services spending, particularly in the restaurant sector [6][7][8]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending Trends**: - Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) in July, with June's figure revised up from 0.6% to 0.9% [6]. - Auto sales rebounded by 1.6% MoM, indicating recovery from a previous dip [6]. - The control group, which excludes volatile items, also saw a 0.5% MoM increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.4% [6]. 2. **Sector Performance**: - Non-store retailers (primarily online sales) showed significant strength, with sales advancing between 0.74% and 0.90% over the last three months [6]. - Conversely, restaurant spending, the only tracked services category, fell by 0.4% after a previous increase of 0.6% [6]. 3. **Outlook on Consumer Spending**: - Despite the nominal increase in goods spending, a slower growth in overall consumer spending is anticipated for the remainder of the year [7]. - Three main reasons for this expectation: - The decline in services spending, which constitutes a larger share of consumer expenditure [8]. - The volatility in goods spending due to tariff front-loading, leading to earlier stronger spending, a spring dip, and a recent recovery [8]. - Downward revisions in job growth have resulted in weaker labor income growth, which, combined with a low savings rate, suggests that consumer spending will need to decelerate [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Implications**: The slowdown in consumer spending is expected to contribute to below-potential real GDP growth for the year [7]. - **Market Volatility**: The strength in online sales is noted to be particularly volatile and challenging to seasonally adjust, indicating potential risks in interpreting these trends [8]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, focusing on the retail sector's performance and the implications for consumer spending and economic growth.

Wall Street will get a close look at how US consumers are faring in the early days of President Trump’s tariff regime when top retailers report earnings next week https://t.co/3IYbOxKS8M ...

Market Trends - US stocks maintained record highs [1] - Retail sales data alleviated concerns about consumer spending [1]

Retail Sales Performance - Overall retail sales increased by 0.5% in the reported period, slightly below the forecast of 0.6% [1] - Auto sales specifically increased by 0.3%, matching the forecast [1] - The control group, a key indicator, rose by 0.5%, consistent with the previous month [1] - June retail sales revised upwards to 0.9% from the initially reported 0.6% [2] - The control group figure for June was also revised upwards to 0.8% from the initially reported 0.5% [3] Import Prices and Tariffs - Import prices increased by 0.4%, with prices excluding petroleum up by 0.3% [2] - Importers appear to be maintaining prices despite tariffs, not reducing them [2] Economic Indicators - The Empire Manufacturing number increased to 11.9% from 5.5% [2] Consumer Spending - Americans continue to spend money, indicating a strong summer for consumers [3] - Tariffs have not deterred consumer spending [4]