We're going to invest roughly $30 billion in the United States to expand Orlando and California. This park is the most technologically advanced thing we've ever done, and we've done some pretty advanced things in our time. Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando Resort, two of the biggest names in theme parks, are about to get even bigger.We've got a lion's share of that investment coming to us. At Walt Disney World. Plans are already in the works, with expansions and facelifts being rolled out across sever ...

May 30, 2025 01:48 PM GMT US Economics | North America Slowing inflation, spending holding up Core PCE was slightly lower than expected in April, showing a clear downward trend before the tariff impulse. Real spending was slightly stronger than expected, though Q1 spending was revised down. Income growth was strong due to one-time payments. The trade deficit narrowed as imports fell sharply. | M Slowing inflation, spending | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 | | --- | --- ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales grew by 6% compared to 11% growth last year, while comp sales were flat after 2% growth last year, both metrics at the midpoint of guidance [7][10] - EBIT margin increased by 30 basis points, and adjusted EPS was up 18% over last year despite flat comp sales [8][28] - Gross margin rate for Q1 was 43.8%, an increase of 30 basis points versus last year, driven by a 20 basis point increase in merchandise margin and a 10 basis point decrease in freight expense [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comp store sales were flat, with a notable deceleration from Q4 to Q1, affecting all demographic trade areas [17][68] - The beauty business was the best performing category in Q1, while overall performance across categories was fairly broad based [97] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store inventories were down 8% versus the end of Q1 2024, with reserve inventory up 31% compared to last year, reflecting strategic acquisitions to mitigate tariff impacts [28][76] - The Southeast Region outperformed the chain, while the Midwest Region trailed due to unfavorable weather [95] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its "Burlington Two Point O" strategy, emphasizing merchandising capabilities and store experience improvements [21][105] - Plans to open 100 net new stores in 2025, with a significant portion expected to open in the latter half of the year [23][115] - The company is actively managing tariff impacts by seeking margin and expense savings opportunities [9][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs and the state of the consumer, which could impact sales trends [10][36] - The company has a playbook to manage through economic slowdowns and inflation, focusing on providing value to customers [19][84] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges [20][88] Other Important Information - The company ended Q1 with approximately $1.1 billion in total liquidity, including $371 million in cash [29] - A new two-year $500 million share repurchase authorization was approved by the Board of Directors [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on off-price retail - Management indicated that disruption from tariffs could create both risks and opportunities for off-price retailers, with recent tariff reductions potentially leading to attractive buying opportunities [40][46] Question: Monthly comp sales trend in Q1 - Comp sales were down about 2% in February, improved in March and April, with May month-to-date trends similar to the March-April combined period [58][61] Question: Comp performance by demographic - Lower income trade areas outperformed the chain, and Hispanic consumer trends showed relative strength, although border stores underperformed [70][72] Question: Freight costs and guidance - Guidance is contingent on holding ocean freight costs to contracted rates, with secured truck and intermodal capacity at favorable rates [89][91] Question: Marketing programs update - The marketing strategy has evolved to focus on value, with an integrated approach to enhance customer experience and store layout [102][105]

Core Insights - Cato Corporation's shares have increased by 11.5% following the release of its earnings results, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 1.4% growth during the same period [1] - Despite a year-over-year earnings decline, Cato's shares are up 12% over the past month, compared to the S&P 500's 6.5% rise, indicating renewed investor optimism [1] Financial Performance - Cato reported a first-quarter 2025 net income of $3.3 million, or 17 cents per share, a decline of approximately 69% from $11 million, or 54 cents per share, in the same period last year [2][3] - Total revenues decreased by 3.9% to $170.2 million from $177.1 million a year ago, with retail sales making up the majority at $168.4 million; same-store sales remained flat [2] Operating Metrics - Gross margin slightly declined to 35.1% of sales from 35.8% in the prior year quarter, attributed to lower merchandise contribution due to increased markdowns [4] - Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by 2.5% year over year to $55.3 million, but as a percentage of sales, SG&A rose to 32.8% from 32.4% [4] Cost Structure - Depreciation costs increased to $2.6 million from $2 million, while interest and other income fell significantly to $1.2 million from $5.8 million, impacted by a prior year's gain from land sales [5] - Income before taxes declined by 63.5% year over year to $4.2 million, with income tax expense rising to $0.9 million from $0.6 million due to changes in tax rates [5] Management Commentary - Cato's leadership highlighted the cautious consumer spending environment, with CEO John Cato noting general economic uncertainty and potential tariff impacts as contributing factors to a restrained outlook [6] - Although sales trends improved later in the quarter, the management maintained a measured tone regarding recovery projections for the remainder of the year [6] Strategic Actions - During the quarter, Cato did not open any new locations and permanently closed eight stores, reducing its total store count to 1,109 from 1,171 a year ago [7] - This contraction reflects the company's adaptation to changing consumer behaviors and efforts to optimize its physical footprint [7] Capital Management - Cato repurchased 294,036 shares during the quarter, indicating confidence in its valuation and commitment to returning capital to shareholders [8] - The company's financial position remained stable, with cash and cash equivalents increasing to $31.3 million from $20.3 million, while short-term investments decreased to $48.6 million from $57.4 million [8]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. has revised its annual outlook due to initial and current tariffs, moderation in consumer discretionary spending, and increased competition, leading to a decrease in expected adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported net sales of $4.6 billion for Q1 2025, a decline of 5.1% year over year, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $4.50 billion [3] - Comparable sales decreased by 2.0% on an owned basis and 1.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [3] - Adjusted earnings were reported at 16 cents per share, surpassing the consensus of 14 cents [4] - Core adjusted EBITDA was $308 million, down from $363 million a year ago [4] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2025, Macy's has lowered its adjusted earnings per share guidance from $2.05-$2.25 to $1.60-$2.00, compared to the consensus of $1.93 [1] - The company maintained its sales guidance for 2025 at $21 billion-$21.4 billion, slightly below the consensus of $21.31 billion [1] - For Q2 2025, Macy's forecasts sales between $4.65 billion and $4.75 billion and adjusted earnings of 15 to 20 cents per share, compared to the consensus of $4.76 billion and 34 cents, respectively [5] Margin and Sales Trends - The gross margin remained flat at 39.2%, with improved merchandise margin offset by higher delivery expenses as a percentage of net sales [4] - Comparable sales for the go-forward business were down 1.8% on an owned basis and 0.9% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [4] - Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury reported positive sales growth, with Bloomingdale's net sales up 2.6% and Bluemercury's up 0.8% [6]

Core Insights - Walmart announced plans to raise prices due to tariffs, indicating potential inflation concerns across the retail sector [2][8] - The market is currently seeking clarity on tariffs, with mixed stock performance reflecting cautious optimism [5][8] - Upcoming retail earnings reports may provide insights into changing consumer spending habits [6][8] Group 1: Walmart and Tariffs - Walmart's decision to raise prices affects over two-thirds of its products, which are domestically sourced, suggesting a muted impact from tariffs [2] - The company anticipates that the increase in costs will lead to higher prices for consumers, raising concerns about a domino effect among other retailers [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 closed up 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.2%, indicating mixed market reactions [1] - The U.S. imported nearly $1 trillion worth of goods from Canada and Mexico in 2024, with new tariffs expected to increase consumer costs by approximately $750 annually for these goods [4] Group 3: Retail Sector Outlook - Retailers such as Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJ Maxx, and Ralph Lauren are set to report earnings, which will shed light on consumer spending trends [6] - The weak start to the housing season may influence spending patterns, with consumers potentially opting to renovate existing homes rather than making new purchases [6] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Applied Materials shares dropped by 5% following mixed results and guidance impacted by tariffs, highlighting the uncertainty in the market [7] - Charter Communications is acquiring Cox Communications for $34.5 billion, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the telecommunications sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - The earnings season for casino stocks has been generally positive, with companies like MGM Resorts and Las Vegas Sands performing well, while Bally's Corp has struggled, missing revenue targets for the sixth consecutive quarter but surprising with a profit [1][3]. Company Performance - Bally's reported revenue of $580.4 million, down 5.1% year-over-year, with 78% of this revenue coming from its casino business, which also saw a decline of 4.2% year-over-year [5]. - Despite missing revenue targets, Bally's achieved a profit of 58 cents per share, contrasting with analysts' expectations of a loss of 76 cents per share [3]. - The stock price of Bally's has only decreased by 2% following the earnings report, indicating some resilience in the face of volatility [4]. Market Context - The consumer discretionary sector is under scrutiny as investors assess the state of consumer spending, particularly in entertainment and gambling for 2024 and beyond [2]. - Bally's is expanding its omnichannel business, holding online sports betting licenses in 13 jurisdictions and growing its international presence through its Interactive International division [6]. Growth Strategy - Bally's is optimistic about its growth through acquisition strategy, having completed transactions that could add nearly 50% to its topline in the current year [7]. - The company has not held an earnings call for the third consecutive quarter, which has left analysts to interpret results without additional commentary [13]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have maintained a cautious stance on Bally's, with Barclays lowering its price target from $14 to $13 while keeping an Equal Weight rating [14]. - Bally's is not currently favored among top-rated analysts, who suggest alternative stocks for investment [15].

Core Insights - Visa's fiscal 2025 second-quarter financial report shows strong performance with revenue and earnings exceeding expectations [2][6] - Consumer spending remains resilient despite macroeconomic uncertainties, contributing to Visa's growth [3][5] Financial Performance - Revenue increased from $8.8 billion in Q2 2024 to $9.6 billion in Q2 2025, a 9% year-over-year growth [2] - Adjusted earnings per share rose from $2.51 to $2.76, marking a 10% increase [2] - Processed transactions grew from 55.5 billion to 60.7 billion, also a 9% increase [2] - Payments volume increased from $3.17 trillion to $3.34 trillion, reflecting a 5% growth; adjusted for currency, this was an 8% increase [2][3] Shareholder Returns - Adjusted net income rose by 6%, while GAAP net income saw a slight dip due to nonrecurring litigation expenses [4] - Share buybacks have reduced the share count, contributing to the increase in adjusted earnings per share [4] - Visa has $4.7 billion remaining under its previous share-repurchase authorization and has allocated an additional $30 billion for future buybacks [4] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Visa's shares rose approximately 2% in after-hours trading, indicating positive investor sentiment [6] - The company's stock has regained much of the ground lost earlier in the year, although it still trades below its 52-week high [6] Future Considerations - Visa does not provide specific guidance in its earnings report, but an upcoming earnings call will address consumer spending trends amid economic changes [7] - The company's core business remains exposed to potential economic slowdowns, despite diversification through value-added services [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. consumer landscape in early 2025 is characterized by a divide between lower-income earners who are cutting back on spending and wealthier individuals who continue to spend on luxury items and experiences [1][2][3] - Lower-income consumers are focusing on essential purchases, leading to a decline in discretionary spending, while affluent consumers are increasing their spending on dining and travel [2][4] - Synchrony reported a 4% decline in spending among its lower-income card users, contrasting with a 6% increase in spending at American Express and similar growth at JPMorgan Chase, indicating a disparity in consumer behavior based on income levels [4][5] Group 2 - Synchrony CEO Brian Doubles noted that while the overall consumer remains in good shape, spending is becoming more selective, particularly among lower-income users who have been reducing discretionary spending for about a year due to inflation [5]

Core Insights - Consumer spending remained strong in March, with retail sales rising 1.4% month over month to $734.9 billion, following a modest 0.2% increase in February, despite concerns over trade tensions and economic slowdown [1][4] Retail Sales Breakdown - Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers increased by 5.3%, while building material, garden equipment, and supplies dealers saw a rise of 3.3%. Electronics and appliance outlets experienced a 0.8% increase [5] - Food and beverage stores and clothing stores had increases of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while health and personal care stores rose by 0.7%. Sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments, and bookstores jumped by 2.4% [5] - General merchandise stores saw a 0.6% increase, miscellaneous stores grew by 0.7%, and food services and drinking places increased by 1.8%. However, furniture and home furnishing stores declined by 0.7%, and gasoline stations saw a decrease of 2.5% [6] Company-Specific Insights - **Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)**: The company is focusing on product innovation, competitive pricing, and expanding its customer base. The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests growth of 11.9% in sales and 24.3% in EPS for the current financial year [9][10] - **BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)**: The company is enhancing membership growth and digital innovations, with a focus on omnichannel capabilities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates growth of 5.8% in sales and 4.4% in EPS [11][12] - **BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)**: The company is improving guest traffic through better food quality and operational efficiency. The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests growth of 3.2% in sales and 12.9% in EPS [12][13] - **The Kroger Co. (KR)**: The company is leveraging its private-label offerings and digital expansion to maintain market position. The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates growth of 1.4% in sales and 6% in EPS [14][15]