幸存者偏差
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“时代红利”过去后,努力真的没用吗?
虎嗅APP· 2025-03-06 13:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "rosy retrospection" phenomenon, where individuals tend to remember the past more positively than it actually was, especially when dissatisfied with their current lives. This leads to a romanticized view of past opportunities and a misunderstanding of the challenges faced by previous generations [1][2]. Group 1: Perception of Past Opportunities - The "rosy retrospection" effect is particularly pronounced when individuals face pressures in their current lives, leading them to idealize their childhood and the perceived opportunities of past decades [2]. - There is a narrative among older generations that suggests younger people are not working hard enough, while simultaneously, some individuals adopt a more favorable stance towards the younger generation, arguing that past successes were due to easier circumstances [2][3]. Group 2: Survivor Bias and Historical Context - The article highlights that true opportunities in any era are not evenly distributed, and the so-called "era dividends" are often a product of survivor bias, where only the successful stories are told [5]. - Historical examples, such as the entrepreneurial successes of the 1980s and 1990s, are contrasted with the reality that many individuals faced significant hardships and low survival rates in their ventures during those times [5][7]. Group 3: Individual Efforts vs. Era Influence - While acknowledging the impact of the era on personal development, the article emphasizes that the majority of individuals do not benefit from the same opportunities, with a significant percentage of contemporaries experiencing failure [10]. - The narrative that success is solely due to favorable times overlooks the personal efforts and sacrifices made by individuals, which are crucial for achieving success [14]. Group 4: Current Opportunities and Future Outlook - The article notes that despite challenges in the current job market, there are still significant opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, where younger individuals are actively participating [11]. - It encourages a mindset shift from viewing the past as a golden age to recognizing that every era has its unique challenges and opportunities, and that success requires adaptation and innovation [12][15].
慢慢等待回本。。。
集思录· 2025-03-02 13:59
Group 1 - The article discusses the emotional and psychological challenges faced by investors in the stock market, particularly the struggle to recover losses and the tendency to make impulsive decisions based on market movements [1][11][17] - The author reflects on the shift from technology stocks to dividend stocks, highlighting the frustration of experiencing losses in one sector while another performs well [1][2] - The concept of "survivorship bias" is introduced, emphasizing that consistent profitability in investing is often misunderstood and that many investors fail to recognize the underlying risks [3][6] Group 2 - The article provides an example of closed-end funds, illustrating how buying at a discount can lead to significant returns during a bull market, with potential total returns reaching 300% over ten years [4][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the long-term benefits of low-risk investments, suggesting that successful investing is more about strategy than personality traits [6][13] - The discussion includes the notion that many investors lack the necessary knowledge and discipline, often leading to poor decision-making and losses [7][15][16]