文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这个逻辑也很容易理解：一轮牛熊市7-10 年,如果只看2-3年数据,容易盲人摸象。 解决方法: 找同风格的、其他历史比较长 的指数，作为参考。 过，对历史数据的参考，最好包括历史的 几轮牛熊市。 一般同风格品种，涨跌上会比较相似。历 史的高低估阶段会相对重合。 例如是小盘股，可以参考中证1000;成长 风格，可以参考成长指数。 来模拟以前牛熊市大致的涨跌幅度。 (2) 指数规则修改，带来估值变化。 此时看百分位意义也不大。 例如中证100，名称修改为中证A100。从 原来按照市值的大小挑选股票，变成类似 于A500的龙头策略。 估值就发生较大变化。 再比如 H股指数,早些年是40只股票,金 融行业占比高。后来改为50只股票，纳入 了不少互联网公司。 规则修改后，以前的历史估值也就失去了 参考价值。 解决方法: 按照新规则，去计算以前的估 值数据。 早期红利指数是市值加权，也就是哪个股 票市值大，在指数中占比高。 当时的红利指数，银行股占比能达到60% 以上。 现在红利指数,是股息率加权。哪个股息 率高，在指数中占比高。 (3) 指数估值加权算法不同，带来百分位 发生变化 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liou Co., Ltd. announced a board meeting to discuss providing counter-guarantees by the controlling shareholder [1] - For the first half of 2025, Liou Co., Ltd.'s revenue composition was 77.6% from the internet, 22.12% from manufacturing, and 0.28% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Liou Co., Ltd. had a market capitalization of 43.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions the recent leadership change at Anta Sports, with the new president for the Greater China region having been in office for just over two months [1] - The new president has been praised for their strong professional capabilities [1]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,388, reflecting a 1.2% increase for the day and a 31.5% increase year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) closed at 9,365, with a 1.1% daily increase and a 28.5% year-to-date increase [1] - The MSCI China index showed a 1.3% increase for the day and a 34.7% increase year-to-date, closing at 87 [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil closed at $67 per barrel, with a 0.9% increase for the day but a 7.0% decrease year-to-date [2] - Gold prices reached $3,643 per ounce, marking a 0.2% increase for the day and a significant 38.8% increase year-to-date [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 111.7% year-to-date, closing at 2,111 [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The US Empire State Manufacturing Index reported an actual value of 11.9, exceeding the consensus of 4.9 [3] - The US Import Price Index showed a year-over-year change of -0.2%, against a consensus of 0.0% [3] - The Federal Funds Target Rate in the US was reported at 4.5%, higher than the consensus of 4.3% [3] China Internet Sector - Six key factors influencing the financials and valuations of China Internet companies in the next 6-12 months include AI, macro recovery, competition landscape, regulatory environments, shareholder return executions, and US-China tensions [8][10] - The ranking of sub-industries is as follows: cloud > online music = online game = online advertising > eCommerce > others [8][10] - Tencent, Alibaba, Netease, and TME are identified as mid- to long-term top picks, while Bilibili and Baidu are recommended for short-term investment [9][10] Auto Sector Update - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Automotive Industry (2025–26)" outlines 15 key initiatives aimed at expanding domestic consumption and enhancing supply quality [14][17] - The new plan emphasizes industry scale expansion and quality improvements, contrasting with the previous plan's focus on maintaining operations within a reasonable range [15][17] - Geely Automobile is favored for its market share gains, while NIO is expected to see a rerating due to operational improvements [16][18] Social Financing in China - The growth of outstanding social financing in China moderated from 9% in July to 8.8% in August, attributed to weakened government bond financing and subdued new loans [5][7] - Despite sluggish household consumption credits and mortgage loans, there is an increasing trend in household stock investment as savings have declined over the past two months [5][7] - Future growth in social financing is expected to stabilize with the advance of next year's bond issue quota for local government hidden debt replacement [6][7] Domestic AI Server Market - The domestic AI server market is projected to grow at 40% due to high demand for AI and uncertainties in Nvidia GPU supply [12][13] - Huawei, Cambircon, and Kunlunxin are ranked as the top three domestic AI platforms based on product competitiveness and supply stability [12][13] - There are concerns about oversupply risks in smaller computing clusters due to lack of economies of scale and inadequate technical support [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerating approach of the technological singularity, which is giving rise to a new concept of "clockspeed," symbolizing exponential growth in technology and a fundamental shift in competitive logic in the digital economy [3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The article introduces two key laws regarding supply chain dynamics: the "volatility amplification law" and the "clockspeed amplification law" [8][16]. - The "volatility amplification law" states that as one moves upstream in the supply chain, the volatility of demand and inventory tends to increase significantly [9][11]. - The "clockspeed amplification law" posits that the closer one gets to the end consumer in the supply chain, the faster the clockspeed of product updates and changes [17][19]. Group 2: Impact of Volatility on Supply Chain Design - The article highlights that businesses must be aware of the cyclical volatility experienced by upstream supply chain members, which can be exacerbated by delays in information and order adjustments [9][13]. - Historical examples, such as the machine tool industry, illustrate the severe impact of volatility, with order fluctuations reaching ±60% to ±80% compared to GDP fluctuations of ±2% to ±3% [13]. - Companies like Toshiba and Cincinnati Milacron have adopted strategies to mitigate the effects of demand fluctuations by collaborating with key customers and diversifying their production capabilities [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The article emphasizes that companies must integrate supply chain design into their strategic planning, as competition increasingly focuses on supply chain efficiency [21]. - Examples of successful companies, such as Dell and Amazon, demonstrate how minimizing supply chain layers and time can lead to significant competitive advantages [21]. - The need for companies to understand their supply chain dynamics and the roles of various participants is crucial for identifying "clockspeed bottlenecks" and enhancing overall performance [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth this year, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% since the beginning of the year, and the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the way [1] - The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still considered low compared to historical highs in 2021, indicating potential for further growth, especially in sectors like technology, internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2] - The article emphasizes that external factors, such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, could enhance liquidity and attract foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market, acting as an accelerator for continued market strength [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's tech companies are becoming increasingly competitive in the AI sector, with recent upgrades to the listing system facilitating the entry of biotech and hard tech companies, thereby enhancing the market's advantages in these areas [2] - There is significant inflow of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, with over 900 billion RMB accumulated this year, particularly benefiting large tech stocks like Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou [3] - The article notes a surge in IPO activity in Hong Kong, reflecting the capital market's recognition of its financing capabilities, and suggests that the market may experience a "comeback" this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province is intensifying efforts to combat online behaviors that infringe on the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, focusing on eliminating "black mouths" and "black public relations" as part of its legal governance of cyberspace [1][2] Group 1: Governance Actions - Zhejiang has closed a number of accounts that infringe on the rights of enterprises and entrepreneurs, including WeChat and Weibo accounts that disseminated negative and false information about Zhejiang enterprises [2] - The province has actively streamlined reporting channels for online infringement and counterfeit information, resulting in the removal of over 4,200 pieces of infringing information and the closure of more than 300 accounts [2] Group 2: Support for Enterprises - Zhejiang is focusing on optimizing support measures for enterprises, conducting over 350 administrative guidance sessions to help businesses understand network policies and regulations [2] - The province has implemented tailored strategies for individual enterprises and provided compliance tips to assist in improving internal management systems [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of mastering core skills in product operations to stand out in the workplace, particularly through data analysis capabilities [1][15] - Obtaining the CDA Data Analyst certification is highlighted as a valuable way to enhance data analysis skills, which are crucial in the era of big data [1][15] CDA Data Analyst Certification - The CDA Data Analyst certification is recognized as one of the most prestigious in the data field, comparable to CPA and CFA certifications, and is recommended by authoritative media [3] - Many companies prioritize CDA certification in their hiring processes, especially in technical roles within banks and financial institutions [5] Employment Opportunities - Potential job roles for CDA certified individuals include data analyst positions in major internet companies, technical roles in finance and banking, business intelligence consultants, market researchers, and product operations [6] Salary Expectations - The starting salary for positions requiring CDA certification is reported to be over 15,000 yuan, indicating a significant demand in the industry [7] Product Operations Skills - Effective product operations revolve around understanding user needs, which can be achieved through various stages of user engagement and analysis [9] - Successful event planning is crucial for enhancing product visibility and user engagement, with a structured approach to activity management being essential [11] - Cross-departmental collaboration is vital for efficient project execution, requiring clear communication and conflict resolution skills [13] Conclusion - To excel in product operations, professionals should focus on developing skills in data analysis, user insights, event planning, and cross-department collaboration, while considering obtaining the CDA Data Analyst certification for career advancement [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant adjustments in the overseas holdings of domestic private equity firms, particularly focusing on the changes in the portfolio of Jinglin Asset Management [1][2][3] Group 2 - Jinglin Asset's top holdings in US stocks as of the end of Q2 2025 include Meta, which accounts for 25.46% of its portfolio, with a market value exceeding $730 million [2] - The total value of Jinglin Asset's US stock holdings reached $2.873 billion, approximately 20.6 billion RMB, indicating a substantial shift towards internet companies [2] - The firm has sold off several major tech stocks, including Apple, UnitedHealth Group, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Legend Biotech, and ZTO Express [2] - The new focus on internet stocks is evident, with significant positions in companies like NetEase, Manbang Group, Pinduoduo, Futu Holdings, and 360 DigiTech [2] Group 3 - Jinglin Asset expressed optimism about China's future development, noting a shift in the competitive strength of Chinese companies from being undervalued to attracting global investment [3] - The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs is seen as having advantages over the previous generation, leveraging a strong supply chain and engineering talent to create aesthetically pleasing products [3] - Dongfang Harbor's overseas fund has also accelerated its portfolio adjustments, reducing holdings in Nvidia, Amazon, and Apple, while increasing positions in Alphabet, Montreal Bank, and initiating purchases of Tesla, Netflix, and Coinbase [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.8% in July, while the Nasdaq Internet Index increased by 3.7% during the same period [1][13] - Notable stock performances included Kuaishou, Weimob, and Kingdee International in Hong Kong, and Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft in the US [1][16] - The PE-TTM for the Hang Seng Tech Index was 21.46x, slightly up from the previous month, placing it at the 20.31% percentile since inception [1][20] - The Nasdaq Index's PE-TTM remained stable at 41.18x, positioned at the 67.95% percentile over the last decade [1][21] AI Developments - Google launched Gemini 2.5 stable version and upgraded its video generation tool Veo3, enhancing AI capabilities in video production [2][24] - OpenAI introduced Record Mode for ChatGPT, allowing for automated meeting transcriptions [2][30] - Meta acquired PlayAI to strengthen its voice AI capabilities and launched the AU-Nets architecture for improved text modeling [2][32][33] - Microsoft released the Deep Research AI agent, automating research processes across various fields [2][34] Industry Dynamics - The gaming sector saw a significant increase in game approvals, with 127 domestic games approved in July, marking a recovery trend [2][51] - Payment institutions' reserve funds rose by 6.14% year-on-year in June, indicating growth in the fintech sector [2][53] - E-commerce platforms like Douyin have implemented policies that saved merchants over 14 billion yuan in costs in the first half of the year [2][56] - Local life services saw Meituan and Taobao's flash sales surpassing 150 million daily orders, reflecting strong consumer demand [2][59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from AI advancements, such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meitu, Kuaishou, NetEase Cloud Music, and Tencent Music [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector remains intense, with platforms increasing investments in instant retail to capture new growth [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the challenges faced by the "Beijing drifters," a term used for the large population of migrants in Beijing, who struggle with high living costs, job competition, and family responsibilities while commuting between cities [1][12][36] - As of the end of 2024, Beijing's resident migrant population is 8.15 million, accounting for 37.3% of the total population, indicating a significant demographic of individuals seeking opportunities in the city [1] - The article illustrates the daily lives of individuals like Li Wei and Zhang Jing, who engage in cross-city commuting, balancing work and family life while facing the pressures of long travel times and financial burdens [12][36][40] Group 2 - Li Wei, a programmer, spends approximately 6 hours commuting daily, covering a distance of 400 kilometers, and incurs a monthly commuting cost of around 5,000 yuan [10][12][48] - Zhang Jing, a procurement officer, has a similar routine, commuting between Beijing and Tianjin, and spends about 2,300 yuan monthly on transportation, while also managing her time efficiently to maintain her work-life balance [23][40] - The article notes that around 330,000 commuters live in the surrounding areas of Beijing, with a significant portion of them facing similar challenges in their daily commutes, which typically last between 1.5 to 2 hours each way [24][36]