以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 种瓜得豆 长期以来 ， 我一直在思考一个问题 ： 为什么很多学习领悟能力 、 逻辑思维能力很强的人 ， 进入股市后亏损累累 ； 而很多白手起家几年炒到 上亿身家的散户 （ 不是传说 ， 我经常遇到 ） ， 如果只是日常交流 ， 你却很少发现他们的智力情绪与思维方法有过人之处呢 ？ 答案是在我从一个散户转成为一个专业的基金经理之后 ， 才慢慢领悟的 —— 很多备受世人认可思维方式 ， 其优势仅仅限于日常工作中 ， 到了投资或创业这种 " 七亏二平一赢 " 的活动中 ， 就会暴露出它们的弱点 。 一般人最熟悉的 " 大公司上班 " ， 如果严格地按照下面六点 ， 你最终大概率会成长为一个优秀管理者。 1 、 洞察现象 ： 他在日常工作生活中发现了一个异常 ， 洞察了一个被忽视的机会 2 、 设计方法 ： 设计了一个新的工作方法 但现实中 ， 如果你是一个 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and developing a proper money mindset as the first step towards wealth freedom, especially for beginners who feel they have "no money to manage" [4][5][6] - It introduces engaging and easy-to-understand books like "The Rich Dad Poor Dad" and "The Little Money Dog" to help readers build a new understanding of wealth and financial management [5][6] - The article highlights the significance of value investing, founded by Benjamin Graham, which focuses on finding stocks priced below their intrinsic value for long-term gains [8][9] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" is presented as a foundational text in value investing, introducing the concept of "margin of safety" to protect against market volatility [9] - "Warren Buffett's Letters to Shareholders" provides insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages and intrinsic value over short-term price fluctuations [10] - Practical methods for applying value investing principles in stock selection and asset allocation are discussed, including industry analysis and financial metrics [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the basics of technical analysis, which helps investors make informed decisions based on historical price and volume data [15][16] - "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" is recommended for understanding market trends and buy/sell signals through candlestick patterns [16] - "Market Trend Analysis" is highlighted as a comprehensive guide to identifying market trends and managing risk through various technical indicators [17][18] Group 4 - The importance of a systematic trading approach is emphasized, with "The Turtle Trading Rules" providing a framework for disciplined trading based on clear entry and exit rules [20] - "The Simplest Thing in Investing" offers localized strategies for the A-share market, focusing on finding undervalued stocks and understanding pricing power [21] Group 5 - The article stresses the psychological aspects of investing, highlighting the need for a rational mindset to navigate market volatility [22][23] - "Poor Charlie's Almanack" is recommended for its insights into multi-disciplinary thinking and investment philosophy [24] - "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles and risk management as key components of successful investing [25] Group 6 - The article addresses the impact of human psychology on investment decisions, suggesting strategies to overcome emotional biases [26][27] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" illustrates the influence of fear and greed on trading behavior through the life of Jesse Livermore [27] - "Fooled by Randomness" warns against cognitive biases and emphasizes the importance of risk management in unpredictable markets [28] Group 7 - The article provides a reading strategy for efficiently absorbing investment knowledge during holidays, suggesting a mix of short and long reading sessions [30][31] - It encourages practical application of learned concepts by identifying actionable insights from each book read [34][35] - The importance of verifying investment theories against current market conditions is highlighted to avoid blind adherence to strategies [36]

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 完美失败指南。 长期以来，我一直在思考一个问题：为什么很多学习领悟能力、逻辑思维能力很强的人，进入股市后亏损累累；而很多白手起家几年炒到上亿身家 的散户（不是传说，我经常遇到），如果只是日常交流，你却很少发现他们的智力情绪与思维方法有过人之处呢？ 答案是在我从一个散户转成为一个专业的基金经理之后，才慢慢领悟的—— 很多备受世人认可思维方式，其优势仅仅限于日常工作中，到了投资或创业这种"七亏二平一赢"的活动中，就会暴露出它们的弱点。 一般人最熟悉的"大公司上班"，如果严格地按照下面六点，你最终大概率会成长为一个优秀管理者—— 1、洞察现象：他在日常工作生活中发现了一个异常，洞察了一个被忽视的机会 2、设计方法：设计了一个新的工作方法 但现实中，如果你是一个投资者，可能经历的是： 1、洞察现象：偶然发现了一个有规律的市场现象 2、设计方法：将其设计为一套有效 ...

一、种瓜得豆 长期以来，我一直在思考一个问题：为什么很多学习领悟能力、逻辑思维能力很强的人，进入股市后亏 损累累；而很多白手起家几年炒到上亿身家的散户（不是传说，我经常遇到），如果只是日常交流，你 却很少发现他们的智力情绪与思维方法有过人之处呢？ 答案是在我从一个散户转成为一个专业的基金经理之后，才慢慢领悟的： 很多备受世人认可的思维方式，其优势仅仅限于日常工作中，到了投资或创业这种"七亏二平一赢"的活 动中，就会暴露出它们的弱点。 一般人最熟悉的"大公司上班"，如果严格地按照下面六点，你最终大概率会成长为一个优秀管理者： 1. 洞察现象：他在日常工作生活中发现了一个异常，洞察了一个被忽视的机会。 2. 设计方法：设计了一个新的工作方法。 3. 测试改进。 4. 扩大尝试。 6. 终获成功。 但现实中，如果你是一个投资者，可能经历的是： 1. 洞察现象：偶然发现了一个有规律的市场现象。 4. 不断加仓：他把所有的仓位都用于这种方法，账户快速升值。但在一次投资中，他严重被套，但因为 以前也出现过类似情况，最终都赚回来，他不断加大仓位，从半仓到全仓到加杠杆。 5. 终获破产。 大公司的工作都是一个事先设计好的闭环 ...

海报制作：王璟瑄 扫一扫 看视频 9月开学季到来，中小学生迎来了新的学期。许多家长，尤其是一年级新生的家长，面对新环境、新老 师、新内容，难免产生焦虑：孩子坐不住怎么办？没上"幼小衔接"班会不会跟不上？ 近日，中青报·中青网记者连线采访了中国高等教育学会家庭教育学专业委员会副秘书长，南京师范大 学家庭教育研究院副院长、心理学院副教授殷飞。殷飞表示：孩子在学习中遇到困难，本身就是最好的挫 折教育，家长不必"另找苦吃"，更无需过度焦虑。 记者整理了访谈中的部分精彩内容，与读者共享。 孩子坐不住40分钟怎么办 家长提问："我的孩子是小学一年级新生，应该如何适应学校的要求，一节课40分钟，孩子坐不住怎么 办？" 殷飞回答： 这类担忧很常见。其实，只要孩子顺利上完幼儿园、发育正常，肌肉力量完全能支撑坐满一节课。家 长真正担心的，是孩子能否持续集中注意力。 实际上，老师不会一讲到底。一节课通常有3-4种教学形态。 听老师讲、同学一起交流讨论、小组之间PK、学生动手实际操作……这些切换能有效缓解神经疲劳， 提升孩子专注力。 家长的担忧可能源于对"幸存者偏差"效应的误用或过度联想——听说别人家孩子出现了这样的问题， 就会怀疑 ...

展局日报道高考写 ith A T F d 1 2 2 ENTER FEEL SEFF BE THE BOOM ST P IMA de = = d - F 25 8 - 1 - 1 - ier 1 開 Law 非 4 ro n I nd Kin 手机 t 2017 I -10-1 lat U 15 t 10 the op 最近真是遇到太多这样的老板了。 财经新闻看多了，一开口就问股权融资，一说就是："马云当年怎么怎么融到钱""马化腾是怎么绝地反击的""刘强东又是怎么烧钱做市场的"。 兄弟们，咱能不能先清醒一点？ 别被"幸存者偏差"带偏了 我听完直接回他一句："别想了，先琢磨怎么活下来吧。" 给他看了行业的数据 可问题是，你只看到了他们站在聚光灯下的样子，却没看到背后倒下的一片尸山血海。 能活下来的，才被你看见；大多数死掉的，从来没出现在你的朋友圈。 这才是创业的残酷。 一个南通老板的故事 上个月，一个南通的客户找到我，想开新式奶茶店。上来就说："能不能帮我对接梅花创投的吴世春？我要股权融资。" 我没答应，反问他："你现在有几家店？营收多少？单店模型跑通了吗？" 他回答：三家店，每家月营收 20 万，毛利大概 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe impact of the ongoing subsidy war in the food delivery industry on small and medium-sized restaurant businesses, highlighting the struggle for survival amidst aggressive competition and changing consumer behavior. Group 1: Industry Overview - The food delivery market has seen a massive influx of over 800 billion in subsidies from e-commerce platforms, leading to a "subsidy war" that has intensified competition in the industry [3][49]. - Many small restaurant owners are facing a "prisoner's dilemma," where they must choose between participating in the subsidy programs, which erode profits, or opting out and risking a significant drop in orders [18][20]. Group 2: Financial Impact on Restaurants - A notable example includes a tea shop that saw its daily orders increase from 200 to 800, but its profit margin plummeted from 15% to 6% due to the high costs associated with subsidies [5][25]. - In another case, a noodle shop that refused to participate in subsidies experienced a 40% drop in orders over three months, leading to potential closure [28]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The subsidy war has altered consumer expectations, with 75% of consumers preferring cheaper delivery options over dining in, and 86% indicating they would choose delivery if it was cheaper than in-store prices [49]. - This shift in consumer behavior has resulted in a significant decline in dine-in orders, with many customers opting to order delivery even while sitting in restaurants [32]. Group 4: Survival Strategies for Restaurants - Some restaurants are adapting by focusing on unique offerings or enhancing their operational efficiency, such as a dessert shop that improved its profit margin to 12% by abandoning low-price subsidies and focusing on in-store sales [44]. - Others are leveraging technology to reduce costs, with one restaurant implementing an AI inventory system that decreased food waste and improved turnover rates [46]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Outlook - The article suggests that while many small restaurants are struggling, there are also success stories among those who have adapted their business models to thrive in the new environment [39][41]. - The ongoing changes in the industry may lead to a natural selection process, where only those businesses that can innovate and adjust to the new market conditions will survive [50][52].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that having a small capital base should not justify reckless investment behavior. Instead, it advocates for a disciplined, long-term investment strategy that focuses on gradual accumulation and learning from the market [5][9]. Group 1: Investment Behavior and Psychology - Small capital accounts are more prone to losses due to impulsive trading behaviors, such as frequent buying and selling, heavy betting, and chasing market trends [10][12]. - Many small investors fall into the trap of survivor bias, believing that they can replicate the success of a few lucky individuals without recognizing the majority who fail [15][16]. - Common psychological and behavioral pitfalls include treating small capital as "trial money," neglecting primary income sources, entering the market unprepared, and allowing emotions to dictate trading decisions [17][18][19][20][21]. Group 2: Correct Investment Path - The article suggests that investors with limited capital should focus on building their skills and knowledge rather than seeking quick profits. This includes prioritizing stable cash flow from primary income sources [24][25]. - It recommends starting with small, consistent investments in broad-based ETFs to develop a disciplined approach to market fluctuations and emotional responses [26][27][28]. - As capital grows, investors should consider constructing a diversified asset portfolio while maintaining a focus on minimizing mistakes rather than chasing high returns [29][31][32].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that entrepreneurship is not the only path to wealth and may not be suitable for everyone, highlighting the high failure rate of startups where less than half survive beyond three years [1] - It discusses the concept of "survivor bias," indicating that successful entrepreneurial stories are not representative of the general experience, as many entrepreneurs face significant losses [1] Group 2 - The article presents the idea that traditional employment can also lead to substantial wealth, with high-earning professions such as investment banking analysts, senior lawyers, and doctors, who can see their income double with experience [2] - It highlights the importance of "professional deepening" and "resource accumulation" in achieving financial success through stable employment [2] Group 3 - Investment is presented as a more passive and potentially lucrative avenue for wealth accumulation, with examples of individuals like Warren Buffett who have achieved wealth through stock investments rather than entrepreneurship [3] - The concept of passive income is introduced as a key to financial freedom, allowing individuals to earn money while they engage in other activities [3] Group 4 - The article discusses the rise of "slash youth," who engage in multiple income streams without quitting their primary jobs, showcasing the versatility of modern earning methods [4] - It emphasizes the idea of "ability reuse," where individuals can monetize their skills in various ways, leading to significant income without the need for full-time entrepreneurship [4] Group 5 - The article identifies emerging trends in the digital economy and virtual assets as new opportunities for wealth generation, such as virtual streamers and NFT artists [5][6] - It stresses the need for individuals to be adaptable and quick to learn new skills to capitalize on these new wealth opportunities [6] Group 6 - The article concludes that the key to financial success lies in finding a path that aligns with one's personality, abilities, resources, and risk tolerance, rather than blindly following others [7] - It asserts that there are numerous ways to achieve financial freedom, and individuals should focus on their unique strengths and continuously improve themselves [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The investment and venture capital industry is experiencing a significant transformation, marked by a rise in social media narratives reflecting the challenges faced by professionals, while simultaneously, there are signs of recovery in policies and market data [1][9][22]. Group 1: Industry Sentiment and Trends - There is a growing trend of "sad literature" on social media, where industry professionals share their experiences and challenges through humorous and fictional narratives [3][5]. - The number of active voices on social media from industry practitioners has increased, indicating a shift in how professionals are engaging with the market [7][13]. - The sentiment among smaller General Partners (GPs) is one of low confidence and emotional fatigue, with many reporting a lack of investment activity over the past year [6][9]. Group 2: Market Recovery Signals - Recent data shows a significant increase in the number of Chinese companies going public, with 109 listings in the first half of 2025, a 32.9% year-on-year increase [10]. - The decision-making efficiency of Limited Partners (LPs) has improved, with a noticeable uptick in investment confidence and activity among state-owned funds [11]. - The emergence of "patient capital" is becoming a focal point in the industry, with many funds extending their investment horizons to 15-20 years, allowing for more strategic investments [12]. Group 3: Opportunities in the Market - There are opportunities in underdeveloped regions, as local GPs may lack the capacity to effectively utilize government funds, creating a gap that can be exploited by more capable firms [17]. - The current environment allows for the conversion of social media engagement into resource leverage, providing a dual benefit of income and resource attraction for industry professionals [18][19]. - The investment landscape is being shaped by favorable policies and technological advancements, creating a strategic opportunity for players in the market [21].