Interest Rate Policy - The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged in a range of 425 to 450 basis points [1] - The statement omits any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments [1][2] - The committee will continue to carefully assess incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks when considering future adjustments to the target range [3] Economic Assessment - Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year, influenced by swings in net exports [1] - Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains elevated [2] - Labor market conditions remain solid, while inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] - One governor believes the labor market is on the edge [5] Dissenting Opinions - Two governors dissented, preferring a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors voted against a committee decision [4]

Federal Reserve Independence - The core issue is the President's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which is considered unwise given the current data [3] - The unusual aspect is the public nature of this pressure, risking the perception of the Fed's independence [3] - Resignation of the Fed Chair Powell would be a political move and counterproductive to demonstrating independence [5] - The best course of action for the FOMC is to base decisions on incoming data and maintain a wait-and-see approach [6] - The strength and independence of the Federal Reserve are being tested by the President's public pressure [9] Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy - The President's characterization of the economy as "hot" might influence the Fed's reluctance to cut rates [10] - Current economic indicators, such as jobless claims at 217,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, suggest a strong economy [10][11] - The market believes the Fed has already factored in two rate cuts [11] - Current incoming data does not support the concept of a rate cut [14] - Inappropriate rate cuts could lead to higher borrowing costs for the US due to increased inflation expectations [14]

💥BREAKING:FED’S POWELL DOES NOT COMMENT ON ECONOMIC OR MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK IN WELCOMING REMARKS TO THE FED BANKING CONFERENCE. ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience through the second quarter of the year, but potential stumbling blocks remain for the economic outlook [1][2] - Positive factors include the finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation, while significant risks include tariffs, trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices [2] JPMorgan's Position - JPMorgan tends to be cautious in its projections due to past crises that have caught many off guard [2] - The complexity of forecasting future economic conditions is acknowledged, with a suggestion that predicting inflection points can often be a waste of time [5] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed critical for economic stability, with concerns that interference could lead to adverse consequences [10] - The current president has publicly criticized the Fed and its leadership, but has stated he will not attempt to remove the current chair, Jerome Powell [6][9]

Economic Outlook - Eastern European economies' outlook is deteriorating [1] - US tariff hikes are contributing to the deteriorating outlook [1] Institutions - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reports on the deteriorating outlook [1]

Market Performance - Nigerian stocks reached a record high [1] - The stock exchange recorded gains for the ninth consecutive day [1] Economic Outlook - The advance is supported by an improving economic outlook for Nigeria [1]

Economic Outlook - High youth unemployment in China suggests a challenging economic environment [1] - A property slump in China indicates potential financial instability [1] - The situation is likely to worsen for millions of people in China due to these factors [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The World Bank anticipates Thailand's monetary policy to become "more accommodative" in the current year [1] Economic Uncertainty - Mounting external and domestic uncertainty are factors influencing the expected monetary policy shift [1]

Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB believes it is near its target after hiking rates ten times and lowering them eight times, but should not be complacent [2] - The ECB is taking a meeting-to-meeting, data-dependent approach due to uncertainty [4] - The ECB considers the current interest rate level to be in neutral territory, around 2% [5][6] - A rate cut would be stimulative [4] Economic Outlook & Risks - Volatility in energy markets indicates a need for caution [3][8] - Trade frontloading may have contributed to good numbers in the first quarter [12] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs could negatively impact the European economic outlook [15] - The European economy is in a fragile situation, making it vulnerable to uncertainty [16][17] Euro's Role & Stability - The current price level of the euro against the dollar is close to the long-term mean [9] - The ECB is not overly focused on the exchange rate, but considers it as one factor among many affecting inflation [10][11] - Strengthening the capital market union and banking union is crucial to making the euro more attractive to international investors [23][25] - A more relevant euro could contribute to a stable global environment alongside the US dollar [26]

- Incoming data suggests that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5% last year, GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. Surveys of households and businesses, however, reported decline in settlement sentiment in recent months, and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns.It remains to be seen how these developments migh ...