Regulatory Clarity & Modernization - The U S aims to provide regulatory and legislative clarity for stablecoins to modernize the payment system [1] - This clarity is expected to further cement the dollar as the world's reserve currency by facilitating international trade through blockchain technology [1] - Providing clear rules will enable the U S to work with global partners to establish its stablecoin system as the dominant means of international electronic commerce [3] Innovation & Competition - If the U S does not provide clarity, innovation in the stablecoin space may move abroad [2] - The U S aims to prevent other countries from taking the lead in international standard setting, particularly in the realm of electronic commerce [3]

Geopolitical Risk - Chinese government is threatening to block a deal transferring ownership of seaports to Western investors [1] - The deal is contingent on Cosco, a Chinese company, receiving a stake [1]

Trade Overview - The U.S is a major global trading power [1] - Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan are key sources of goods imported into the U.S [1]

US Political & Economic Landscape - The US political system is perceived to be transforming, with concerns about slavish devotion to a leader and Washington potentially turning into Pyongyang [1] - There's a sense that the US is politically not the same country it was a few years ago, impacting the entire international system [1] - Public opinion is largely negative towards current legislation, even with deliberate obfuscation of its impact [25] - The US stock market may be detached from the economic reality, potentially driven by corporate profit expectations in a favorable regime [15] International Order & Global Economy - The traditional global order is being tested, with the US potentially abdicating its leadership role [1][3] - The world may be moving towards a "world order minus one," where the US is excluded due to its current political climate [3] - There's an opportunity for other countries, like China and the EU, to take on leading roles in trade, climate action, and global governance [5][6][7] - The US dollar has fallen about 10% since the start of the year, a phenomenon typically seen in emerging markets [17] Risks & Uncertainties - There are concerns about the stability of the US system, with potential for unfair elections and the creation of a massive secret police force [2] - The US is potentially setting itself up for a financial crisis due to deregulation, irresponsible fiscal policy, and pressure on the Federal Reserve [31][33] - There's a risk of runaway inflation if the Federal Reserve becomes too politicized and attempts to goose up the economy for political gain [34]

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

Geopolitical Landscape in the Indian Ocean - The Indian Ocean is vital for global commerce, serving as a critical passage for trade between Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia [1] - Increased competition exists between the US and China, and between China and India, for influence in the region [3] - President Trump's foreign policy shift has created uncertainty about the US's role, opening doors for China [3] - Tiny countries like Mauritius are being courted by major powers due to their strategic location [4] China's Growing Influence - China is investing billions in ports, infrastructure, and naval expansion in the Indian Ocean region, raising concerns in India [2] - As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China is asserting regional influence with multibillion-dollar infrastructure investments [14] - China has built its first military base in Djibouti and is expanding its naval footprint in Cambodia [16] India's Response and Concerns - India relies on the Indian Ocean for approximately 95% of its international trade and 80% of its energy [11] - India is constructing a new airstrip on the Agaléga islands to track Chinese activity [7] - India has commissioned a new base on Minicoy Island and opened its first offshore military logistics hub at Duqm Port in Oman [20] - India views the potential for an external power, particularly China, to disrupt trade routes as a significant threat to its national security [17] US Role and Retreat - US cuts to foreign assistance are seen as an opportunity for China to fill the gaps [18] - The US base on Diego Garcia is crucial for countering China's growing presence in the region [19]

US Economic & Political Shifts - The US administration has undermined trust by abandoning trade agreements and rule of law, leading to erratic and unpredictable governance [7][8] - The abandonment of the "most favored nation" principle in international trade signals a disregard for past agreements [9][10] - The US is behaving like an arbitrary despot, undermining the ability of businesses and individuals to plan [14][16] - The US is becoming increasingly unreliable compared to other economic superpowers like the EU and China [35][37] Trade & Tariffs - The US has blown up the international trading system, exemplified by doubling the tariff on steel from 25% to 50% [29] - The invocation of the national security clause (Section 232) to justify tariffs is seen as a veneer of legality [30] - Unpredictable tariff rates create uncertainty for businesses, potentially leading to investment paralysis [31][32] Corruption & Influence - The US is perceived to have abandoned anti-corruption efforts, setting a bad example for other governments [40][41] - The presidency appears to be "for sale," potentially altering the nature of successful business leadership [44] - Bribing people in power may become a way to get business in America, disadvantaging countries with rule of law [45] Financial System Risks - Suggestions of converting American debt into ultra-long-term debt (century bonds) are viewed as a potential default [47][48] - The reliability of US debt is being questioned, potentially leading to a world system without a safe asset [53] Assault on Science & Universities - There is a systematic attack on the American scientific system and universities, including foreign students and faculty [59][60] - Restrictions on foreign students and faculty are damaging collaboration between universities and business [62][63] - Hostility to independent thought and science is undermining the factors that made the US successful [66][67]

SK海力士：美国客户占到收入的60%；对美国的直接出口不高。 ...