文 | 赵晋平 提要： 2025 年以来，我国服务贸易在上年实现较快增长基础上继续保持稳定增长态势，发展质量稳步提升。商务部公布的服务贸易统计显示， 2025 年 1-5 月， 服务进出口额达到 3.2 万亿元，同比增长 7.7% ，其中，服务出口为 1.4 万亿元，增长 15.1% 。另据中国服务贸易协会课题组编制的季度指数测算， 2025 年 1- 2 季度中国服务出口发展综合指数达到 107.9% ，服务贸易发展质量和水平继续保持上升趋势。但是，受年初以来美国滥施关税政策、地缘冲突加剧以及国 内服务消费需求不足等因素影响，服务贸易较快增长和结构升级的不确定性明显增加，稳外贸、促增长作用亟待进一步加强。本报告基于中国服务贸易季 度指数测算结果，对今年上半年服务出口、进口和收支平衡的主要特点进行分析，对 3-4 季度发展形势作出展望，并在此基础上，从短期政策、中长期政 策、促进机制建设等三个维度，提出十项政策建议。 一、服务贸易发展主要特点 根据商务部服务贸易统计的测算结果显示，2025 年1-2 季度，中国服务进出口发展综合指数达到102.2%，服务贸易总体发展水平呈现继续稳步提升态势。 从十大成分指数来 ...

市政府秘书长徐本，市稳外贸工作专班相关负责同志参加调研。 今年1至8月，苏州实现外贸进出口1.76万亿元，同比增长5.4%。会上，吴庆文详细听取当前全市外 贸运行情况汇报，了解重点产业外贸企业生产与贸易情况，分析四季度及全年外贸发展形势、当前国际 经贸格局对苏州外贸的影响，部署下一步稳外贸重点工作。 10月3日，苏州市委副书记、市长吴庆文调研市稳外贸工作专班，专题部署稳外贸工作。吴庆文强 调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于加快建设贸易强国的重要论述，认真落实省委、省政府关于稳外 贸工作的系列决策部署，持续做好外贸稳增长、优结构、拓市场相关工作，大力支持生产型外贸企业争 取全球市场份额，全力推动外贸高质量发展，为苏州经济可持续发展注入强大动能。 吴庆文指出，外贸是拉动经济增长的重要引擎。面对复杂多变的外部环境，要增强应对不确定性的 发展定力，采取更加有力有效的措施，巩固当前发展势头。要提前谋划明年工作，结合苏州"工贸一 体"的特点，推动生产型企业争取全球订单分配，提升产品核心竞争力与品牌影响力，不断提高全球市 场供应能力。要加快布局全球多元市场，持续开展"百团千企"出海行动，加快建设海外商务中心，发挥 各类境外 ...

2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 9 月 PMI：两连升成色几何？ 2025 年 09 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 这也在一定程度上解释了为何在"反内卷"政策下，9 月 PMI 生产指数却逆势上 升 1.1pct 至 51.9%。同时为了应对长假前的"抢工补产"以及长假后即将到来 的"双十一"，制造业企业的用工需求明显上升，PMI 从业人员指数也上升 0.6pct 至 48.5%。 ➢ 除此之外，9 月出口形势不宜过分低估。刚出炉的 PMI 数据，有三条线索 均指向 9 月出口压力边际缓释：其一，9 月 PMI 新出口订单指数环比上升 0.6pct 至 47.8%，这也是 4 月底"对等关税"以来 PMI 新出口订单指数录得的最高值； 其二，相较于大中型企业，9 月与外贸景气度联系更紧密的小型企业 PMI 指数， 其弹升幅度最为明显；其三，调查样本以沿海地区小微企业居多的 RatingDog 制造业 PMI，从 8 月的 50.5%上升至 9 月的 51.2%。 ➢ 不过，经济运行的结构性压力，在 9 月 PMI 成绩 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen has regained its position as the "foreign trade capital" of China, surpassing Shanghai for the first time in ten years, with a total import and export volume of 2.96 trillion yuan in the first eight months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [1][2][6] - The export value reached 1.79 trillion yuan, while imports totaled 1.17 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase of 9% [1] - The trade structure indicates that general trade accounted for 54.6% of Shenzhen's total trade, with a notable growth in bonded logistics and processing trade [1][9] Trade Partners and Growth - Shenzhen's trade with its top ten partners amounted to 2.31 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 2.8% and increasing its share of total trade to 78.1% [1] - Significant growth was observed in trade with Hong Kong (8.1%), Taiwan (20.8%), and Japan (14.8%) [1] Trade Composition - Private enterprises played a crucial role in Shenzhen's foreign trade, accounting for 69.6% of the total import and export value, with a total of 2.06 trillion yuan [9] - Foreign-invested enterprises also showed robust performance, with imports and exports reaching 788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [9] Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products remain the backbone of Shenzhen's exports, totaling 1.35 trillion yuan, which is 75% of the total export value [9] - Notable growth was seen in the export of integrated circuits (40.2%) and lithium batteries (35.9%) [9] Import Dynamics - The import of mechanical and electrical products reached 949.16 billion yuan, growing by 12.5% and constituting 81.4% of total imports [9] - The import of integrated circuits alone was 519.68 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.8% increase [9] Comparative Analysis - Both Shenzhen and Shanghai have shown resilience in their foreign trade, with Shanghai's imports and exports growing by 4.5% in the same period [10] - The competition for the title of "foreign trade capital" remains uncertain as both cities adapt to changing external environments [10]

Group 1 - In August, Shanghai's total import and export value reached 387.43 billion RMB, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, continuing a growth streak for seven consecutive months since February [1] - Exports amounted to 183.08 billion RMB, surpassing 180 billion RMB for the first time in a single month, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%; imports were 204.35 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - For the first eight months of the year, Shanghai's cumulative import and export value reached 2.94 trillion RMB, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year increase, with growth rate improving by 1 percentage point compared to the previous seven months [1] Group 2 - Private enterprises in Shanghai achieved an import and export value of 166.85 billion RMB in August, a significant year-on-year increase of 31.5%, contributing 11.5 percentage points to the city's overall trade growth [1] - Exports to emerging markets saw substantial growth, with a total of 53.74 billion RMB in August, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, which boosted the overall export growth rate by 10.7 percentage points [1] - Key export categories included ships and marine engineering equipment, and engineering machinery, with export values increasing by 10.6 times and 72.8% respectively [1][2] Group 3 - In August, Shanghai's export of electromechanical products reached 125.39 billion RMB, a 19% year-on-year increase, accounting for nearly 70% of total exports [2] - Notable growth was observed in the export of high-end machinery, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, with year-on-year increases of 45.1%, 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [2] - Import trends indicated stability and recovery in industrial and consumer demand, with significant increases in imports of metal ores, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and various consumer goods [2]

Core Insights - Jiangsu is positioned as a forefront of China's opening-up strategy, leveraging its advantages to stabilize foreign trade and investment while enhancing high-level openness [3][4] - The province's GDP reached 6.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Jiangsu's foreign trade and investment have shown resilience, with a total import and export value of 3.31 trillion yuan from January to July, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3] Group 1 - Jiangsu's foreign trade and investment strategies are guided by the "Belt and Road" initiative, aiming to build a world-class two-way open hub [3] - The province has maintained its position as the second-largest in import and export scale for 22 consecutive years and has ranked first in actual foreign investment for seven years [3] - The industrial sector in Jiangsu is focusing on the "1650" industrial system, promoting stable growth in foreign trade and investment [4] Group 2 - The province's industrial and information technology department emphasizes four key areas: innovation, digital empowerment, collaborative development, and creating a favorable business environment [4] - Jiangsu's actual foreign investment reached 12.41 billion USD, maintaining its leading position nationally [3] - The province's foreign trade and industrial sectors are characterized by strong resilience and vitality, with a notable improvement in the structure of industrial product exports [4]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by China Construction Bank's Shanghai branch aims to support foreign trade enterprises through a comprehensive financial service package, addressing the need for stability in foreign trade amidst economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Sailing Overseas: Financial Support for Stabilizing Foreign Trade" was attended by over a hundred representatives from key foreign trade enterprises [1]. - The "Stabilizing Foreign Trade Support Package" was launched, which includes five core scenarios and ten precise services to help enterprises mitigate risks and expand into diverse markets [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Shanghai's export value reached 952.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, indicating strong economic momentum [3]. Group 3: Financial Services Offered - The financial service package covers areas such as exchange rate risk management, payment settlement, credit financing, asset preservation and appreciation, and cross-border financial services [3]. - The event included discussions on the trends in the RMB exchange rate and hedging strategies to help enterprises effectively avoid exchange rate risks [3]. - China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation provided insights on export credit insurance policies and practical risk prevention suggestions for enterprises [3]. Group 4: Future Plans - China Construction Bank's Shanghai branch plans to continue a series of specialized presentations across the city, enhancing cross-border financial services and supporting the high-quality development of foreign trade [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Quality Products Exhibition aims to enhance domestic and international trade integration, boost consumption, and support high-quality economic development through effective platform utilization and market engagement [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Guangdong Quality Products Exhibition features a theme of "Guangdong Quality Products, Beautiful Guangdong," focusing on consumer product displays and supply-demand matching [4]. - The exhibition includes five industry zones and will host 42 supply-demand matching activities, attracting 1,086 participating companies and 2,175 domestic and international professional buyers [4]. Group 2: Government Support and Expectations - Provincial leaders emphasize the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's directives and taking responsibility for economic leadership, aiming to enhance trade integration and support economic recovery [3]. - Leaders encourage exhibitors to leverage the platform for expanding market reach and adapting to new consumer demands, while also enhancing product quality and innovation [1][3]. Group 3: Market Potential and Opportunities - Guangdong is recognized as a populous and consumer-rich province with vast market opportunities, encouraging buyers to engage with local enterprises and products [2]. - The government aims to create more cooperation opportunities for businesses through policy consultation, training, and promotional activities, particularly targeting upcoming consumer hotspots [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Bank Shandong Branch is enhancing its financial support for foreign trade enterprises in alignment with the national "stabilizing foreign trade" strategy, focusing on innovative cross-border financial services to facilitate international business operations [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Services - The Shandong Bank is actively providing financial support to foreign trade enterprises, implementing precise measures and innovative solutions to enhance cross-border financial services [1] - A pharmaceutical export company in Dongying successfully utilized the "Wide Range Treasure" options strategy to hedge against USD depreciation risks, processing 44 transactions worth $620 million in 2024, mitigating over 6 million yuan in exchange losses [2] - The efficiency of fund turnover for the pharmaceutical company improved by 40% due to streamlined cross-border payment processes facilitated by the Shandong Bank [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Financial Services - The Mingtou Group, specializing in construction materials, anticipates a 10% increase in export volume this year, attributing this growth to the support from China Bank's cross-border services [3] - The Mingtou Group has processed over 3,000 cross-border receipts totaling more than $6.4 million in the first half of the year, benefiting from expedited payment services [3] - The bank's risk management capabilities, including a professional letter of credit review process, have helped Mingtou Group mitigate potential risks while expanding its customer base [4] Group 3: Innovations in Foreign Exchange Services - The Yantai Bank has integrated its market procurement trade platform "Yicaitong" with the cross-border remittance system, allowing for 24/7 automatic account crediting, significantly improving fund arrival efficiency [6] - Since the launch of the "Yicaitong" service, Yantai Bank has processed 1,138 transactions worth $17.8 million, enhancing the operational efficiency of market participants [6] - The bank has implemented a "fee reduction + exchange rate optimization" strategy to alleviate the financial burden on small and micro enterprises, resulting in significant cost savings and increased profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of foreign trade and aims to stabilize and promote the development of foreign trade enterprises amid complex external challenges [1] Group 1: Current Situation and Responses - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with 12 foreign trade enterprises and representatives from 6 import and export associations to discuss the current international economic and trade situation [1] - Despite the challenging external environment, China's foreign trade has shown resilience, achieving stability and progress this year [1] - Recent economic talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva, London, and Stockholm have led to positive consensus and efforts to stabilize bilateral trade relations [1] Group 2: Future Actions and Support - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and address the difficulties faced by enterprises [1] - Various government departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the People's Bank of China, responded to the issues and suggestions raised by enterprises during the meeting [1] - Representatives from participating enterprises expressed confidence in managing external risks and challenges to maintain stable business development [1]