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Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 01, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants David Erdman - Senior Director-Investor RelationsBarry Biffle - CEO, President & DirectorJames Dempsey - PresidentRobert Schroeter - Sr VP, Chief Commercial OfficerMark Mitchell - Senior VP & CFOMichael Linenberg - Managing DirectorSavanthi Syth - MD - Airlines & Advance Air MobilityTom Fitzgerald - VP - Equity ResearchJames Baker - Managing Director & Investment SpecialistDuane Pfennigwerth - Senior Managing ...

Savers Value Village (SVV) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 01, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0 Good afternoon, and welcome to Savers Value Villages Conference Call to discuss Financial Results for the First Quarter Ending 03/29/2025. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded and a replay of this call and related materials will be available on the company's Investor ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, system-wide sales increased by 15.7% to $1.3 billion, marking the highest sales recorded in a single quarter in the brand's history [33] - Revenue rose by 17.4% to $171 million compared to the prior year [34] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 18.4% to $59.5 million, representing the largest first quarter on record [37] - Reported EPS for Q1 was $3.24, a more than 200% increase year-over-year [37] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.99, a 1% increase versus the prior year [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store sales growth was 0.5%, impacted by external factors such as California fires and severe winter weather [10] - Digital sales accounted for 72% of total sales, indicating a strong shift towards online transactions [11] - Company-owned restaurant sales increased by $1.5 million due to a 1.4% same store sales growth [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened a record 126 new units in Q1 2025, contributing to a total of over 2,600 restaurants globally [11][28] - Average new restaurant volumes are projected to exceed $1.8 million, compared to $1.2 million three years ago [28] - The international business also performed well, with a new flagship location in Kuwait breaking records for weekly sales [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to scale average unit volumes (AUVs) to $3 million and expand to over 10,000 restaurants globally [11] - Strategies include enhancing brand awareness, menu innovation, expanding delivery channels, and leveraging data-driven marketing [11] - The rollout of the Wingstop Smart Kitchen is expected to improve service speed and consistency, with over 200 restaurants already equipped with the new system [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted increased uncertainty in the consumer landscape but emphasized the brand's resilience and long-term strategies [6][9] - The company anticipates domestic same store sales growth of approximately 1% for fiscal year 2025, down from previous expectations of low to mid-single digits [40] - Management remains confident in the brand's health and strategies, expecting a return to growth in the second half of the year [50][62] Other Important Information - The company has a strong pipeline with over 2,000 restaurant commitments globally [28] - A dividend of $0.27 per share was approved, demonstrating confidence in the company's financial strength [39] - The company is set to pilot a loyalty program in Q4 2025, with a full launch planned for 2026 [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the comp outlook for 2025 - Management acknowledged the challenges of comparing against strong prior year results and noted that the current environment feels like a near-term pullback rather than a broad-based issue [50] Question: Franchisee sentiments and growth focus - Conversations with franchisees are centered around unit growth rather than same store sales, reflecting confidence in the brand's long-term potential [55] Question: Impact of the Smart Kitchen on sales - Early results indicate positive sales trends in restaurants equipped with the Smart Kitchen, with a 5% increase in conversion rates observed in a recent test [60] Question: International expansion and market entry - Management highlighted strong performance in international markets and expressed confidence in future growth opportunities, particularly in India and China [68] Question: Differentiation of the new tenders product - The company sees the relaunch of tenders as a significant opportunity to attract new customers and drive repeat visits, similar to the success of the chicken sandwich [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, system-wide sales increased by 15.7% to $1.3 billion, marking the highest sales recorded in a single quarter in the brand's history [31] - Revenue rose by 17.4% to $171 million compared to the prior year [32] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 18.4% to $59.5 million, representing the largest first quarter on record [34] - Reported EPS for Q1 was $3.24 per diluted share, a more than 200% increase year-over-year [34] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.99, a 1% increase versus the prior year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Digital sales accounted for 72% of total sales, indicating a strong shift towards online ordering [10] - Company-owned restaurant sales increased by $1.5 million in Q1 due to a same-store sales growth of 1.4% [32] - The company opened a record 126 new units in Q1, contributing to a total of over 2,600 restaurants [10][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a same-store sales growth of 0.5% in Q1, despite challenges from California fires and severe winter weather [8] - The international business showed strong performance, with a new flagship location in Kuwait achieving record weekly sales [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to scale average unit volumes (AUVs) to $3 million and expand to over 10,000 restaurants globally [10] - The introduction of the Wingstop Smart Kitchen is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, with a rollout in over 200 restaurants by the end of Q1 [21] - The company is focusing on brand awareness, menu innovation, and digital transformation as key strategies for growth [10][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current macro environment presents increased uncertainty, with consumer sentiment at its second lowest level since 1952 [6] - Despite challenges, management expressed confidence in the brand's resilience and long-term strategies, citing historical performance during similar economic conditions [7][29] - The outlook for 2025 includes a domestic same-store sales growth of approximately 1%, reflecting a more cautious approach due to macroeconomic conditions [37] Other Important Information - The company has a share repurchase authorization program of $500 million, with $250 million already repurchased [35][36] - A dividend of $0.27 per share was approved, demonstrating confidence in the company's financial health [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the comp outlook for 2025 - Management acknowledged the challenges in forecasting due to macro headwinds and provided context on the expected trends for Q2 and the rest of the year [44][46] Question: Franchisee sentiments and growth focus - Conversations with franchisees are centered around unit growth rather than same-store sales, reflecting confidence in the brand's long-term potential [48][50] Question: Impact of the Smart Kitchen rollout - Early results from the Smart Kitchen indicate positive sales trends and improved guest satisfaction, although the benefits may take time to fully materialize [55][56] Question: International expansion and market entry - Management highlighted ongoing international growth, particularly in the GCC and Australia, while also expressing cautious optimism regarding future opportunities in China and India [64][66] Question: Addressing consumer pullback in specific demographics - The company is implementing targeted strategies to engage consumers in demographics that have shown a pullback, focusing on messaging and value [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.71 for the first quarter, which was $0.23 higher than guidance, driven by better revenue and favorable timing of expenses [10][21] - Yields grew by 5.6% in constant currency compared to the first quarter of 2024, exceeding initial guidance by 60 basis points [21] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35%, which is 360 basis points better than the previous year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bookings in the first quarter outpaced last year across all products, resulting in the best wave season in the company's history [10][11] - Onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases exceeded prior years, driven by increased participation in onboard activities and experiences at higher prices [11][12] - The Caribbean accounted for 57% of deployment this year and 49% of capacity in the second quarter [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects capacity to grow by 5.5% in 2025, supported by the introduction of new ships [15] - Europe is projected to account for 15% of capacity for the year, while Alaska is expected to account for 6% [24] - The company reported that 7 out of 10 consumers intend to spend the same or more on leisure travel over the next twelve months [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering exceptional vacation experiences, optimizing revenue, managing costs, and executing long-term strategies [7][8] - The introduction of seven new ships over the next three years is expected to enhance customer experiences and drive growth [18] - The company aims for a 20% compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share through 2027 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged heightened uncertainty in the macro landscape but emphasized strong consumer demand for cruising experiences [6][7] - The company remains confident in its growth strategy and the opportunity to capture a larger share of the $2 trillion vacation market [7][15] - Recent booking trends and disciplined cost management position the company well for strong earnings growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties [15][28] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in liquidity and received an investment-grade credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings [30][31] - The company repurchased 1 million shares under its $1 billion share repurchase program [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of better than planned performance in Q1 - Management noted strong close-in demand and the ability to raise pricing during this period, alongside high-quality customers spending well on the ship [38][39] Question: Areas of guidance expansion due to macro backdrop - Management expanded guidance ranges to account for broader external factors while maintaining confidence in long-term growth strategies [46][48] Question: Pricing strategy for new ships and potential headwinds - New ships entering service later in the year may create a headwind due to lower average passenger cruise days initially [54][56] Question: Onboard spending and consumer behavior - Management indicated that consumer spending remains strong, with no significant trade-down behavior observed among loyalty program members [78][79] Question: Capital allocation and share repurchase strategy - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet while also returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [92][94]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.71 for the first quarter, which was $0.23 higher than guidance, driven by better revenue and favorable timing of expenses [10][21] - Yields grew by 5.6% in constant currency compared to the first quarter of 2024, exceeding initial guidance by 60 basis points [21] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35%, which is 360 basis points better than the previous year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bookings for 2025 are outpacing last year, with the best wave season in the company's history [10][11] - Onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases have exceeded prior years, driven by increased participation in onboard activities [11][12] - The Caribbean represents 57% of the company's deployment for the year, with 49% of capacity in the second quarter [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is seeing strong demand across all commercial channels, particularly in direct-to-consumer channels [11] - Europe is expected to account for 15% of capacity for the year, while Alaska will account for 6% [23] - Consumer sentiment around leisure vacations remains positive, with 70% of surveyed consumers intending to spend the same or more on leisure travel over the next twelve months [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 20% compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share through 2027, focusing on moderate capacity and yield growth along with strong cost control [16][24] - Investments are being made in new ships and exclusive destinations to enhance guest experiences and drive loyalty [18][19] - The company is focused on maintaining price integrity while optimizing revenue through a global yield management platform [64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges heightened macroeconomic uncertainty but remains confident in the company's ability to deliver strong financial performance [6][7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing $2 trillion vacation market, with a strong balance sheet and cash flow generation [7][15] - Recent booking trends and disciplined cost management are expected to support another year of strong earnings growth [15][28] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $4.5 billion in liquidity and received an investment-grade credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings [30][31] - Share repurchase programs are ongoing, with $1 billion authorized for repurchases, and the company has repurchased 1 million shares [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of better than planned performance in Q1 - Management noted strong close-in demand and the ability to raise pricing during this period, alongside high-quality customer spending [38][39] Question: Areas of guidance expansion due to macro backdrop - Management expanded guidance ranges to account for broader external factors while maintaining confidence in long-term growth strategies [46][48] Question: Pricing strategy for new ships and potential headwinds - New ships entering service later in the year may create a temporary headwind due to lower average passenger cruise days [54][56] Question: Onboard spending and close-in pricing outlook - Management remains optimistic about consumer spending and has not seen significant changes in cancellation rates or customer behavior [60][62] Question: Capital allocation and share repurchase strategy - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet while also returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [92][94]

Company Overview - Arcos Dorados (ARCO) shares increased by 6.4% to close at $7.46, following a notable trading volume, contrasting with a 17.3% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is benefiting from digital transformation, loyalty program expansion, and the Experience of the Future (EOTF) restaurant modernization [1] Earnings Expectations - Arcos Dorados is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 7.1%, with revenues projected at $1.08 billion, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for Arcos Dorados has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a lack of upward momentum in earnings estimate revisions [3] Industry Context - Arcos Dorados operates within the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, where another company, GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. (GENK), saw a 4.7% increase in its stock price, closing at $4.25, despite a significant decline of 35.6% over the past month [3] - GEN Restaurant Group's consensus EPS estimate has also remained unchanged at $0, representing a 100% decline from the previous year, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4]

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