Market Trends - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed back above 4% as oil prices increased [1] - Oil prices moving higher are contributing to the reversal in rates [2] Interest Rate Analysis - The 10-year intraday rate briefly topped 4% around 12:11 [2] - The last close above 4% for the 10-year yield was the previous Friday [2] - A new low yield close for the year was recorded at 395 basis points (3.95%) [2] Economic Indicators - September CPI data will be released tomorrow at 8:30 Eastern Time [1] - All metrics are expected to be hot, with a year-over-year look to both be over 3% [3] - Selling pressure in treasuries is observed today in anticipation of the CPI data [3]

Group 1: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar increased by 0.38% against the yen, reaching 152.525 yen, while the U.S. dollar index remained nearly flat at 98.925 [1] - The yen is under pressure due to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which have contributed to rising oil prices [4][5] - Domestic factors, including the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's prime minister, are also impacting the yen, which is approaching a seven-month low of 153.29 yen per dollar [6] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - New U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have led to a nearly 5% increase in oil prices [4] - Chinese state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil from the sanctioned companies, further boosting oil prices [5] - The rise in oil prices is affecting currencies tied to oil imports, particularly the yen, as Japan is a major oil importer [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data is significant for assessing consumer spending and growth, despite the Federal Reserve's shift in focus to the labor market [2][3] - The inflation data will assist the U.S. Social Security Administration with its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 [2]

There are massive sanctions and sanctions on oil. The two biggest oil companies among the biggest in the world. But they're Russian.They do a lot of oil. And hopefully it'll push. Hopefully he'll become reasonable and hopefully Zelinsky will be reasonable to do.Let's bring in our executive editor for the Middle East, North Africa and Russia. That's Stuart Livingston Wallace in Dubai for us. Stuart, what do you make of these comments.It seems like a bit of a U-turn from President Trump. You know, it does. I ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced their largest one-day increase in a month, indicating a potential impact on global crude supply due to recent price declines [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in oil prices has raised concerns among traders about its effect on the flow of global crude supplies [1]

Core Insights - Oil prices experienced a decline, settling approximately 1.6% lower in the previous session, as the market's risk premium diminished following an agreement between Israel and Hamas on the initial phase of a plan to end the conflict [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil prices indicates a shift in market sentiment as geopolitical tensions ease [1] - The agreement between Israel and Hamas is seen as a significant factor contributing to the reduction in risk premium in the oil market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation is poised for a significant increase in third-quarter earnings for 2025, driven by higher oil prices and strong refining margins, despite a recent decline in stock performance [2][3][6] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Exxon Mobil anticipates an increase in earnings by up to $300 million in the third quarter of 2025 due to favorable market conditions [2][6] - The Energy Products segment is expected to contribute significantly to earnings, with forecasts ranging between $300 million and $700 million [4] Group 2: Stock Performance - Scotiabank reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating for Exxon Mobil and raised its price target from $125 to $128, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [1][6] - Despite a 4% decline in stock price over the past year, the company's robust earnings forecast could signal a potential turnaround [3][6] - The current stock price is $113.98, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.04, or approximately -0.04% [3] Group 3: Market Position - Exxon Mobil's market capitalization stands at approximately $485.9 billion, highlighting its substantial presence in the energy sector [5] - The company had a trading volume of 3,463,938 shares on the NYSE, indicating active trading and investor interest [5]

Core Insights - Oil prices remained stable as investors assessed the implications of a ceasefire deal in Gaza against ongoing stalled peace talks in Ukraine, which may prolong sanctions on Russia and affect its oil exports [1][5]. Group 1: Ceasefire Deal in Gaza - Both Israel and Hamas have publicly endorsed a ceasefire deal, expected to be signed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt [2]. - The ceasefire will involve a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for prisoners held by Israel [3]. Group 2: Implications for Oil Markets - The ceasefire could have significant implications for oil markets, potentially reducing attacks in the Red Sea and increasing the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran, which may lead to higher crude and product exports from Iran [4]. - Previous attempts at ceasefire deals have failed, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza has supported oil prices due to concerns over global supply disruptions [5]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and U.S. Oil Consumption - OPEC+ has agreed to a smaller-than-expected output increase, which has alleviated oversupply concerns in the market [6]. - U.S. petroleum products supplied rose to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 2022, indicating a potential increase in U.S. oil consumption [7].

Uh for more on the path ahead, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy and CBC contributor Haleim Croft. Helma, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me.You know, Melissa, the same scenario as we had last month. We had a rally one week before the OPEC meeting. If we had talked this time last week, we would have been talking about Brent prices approaching 70.Now we have another sell-off going into an OPEC meeting over the weekend. And I think market participants are ver ...

Core Insights - Oil prices showed a slight recovery in early Asian trading after two sessions of significant declines, with Brent futures at $66.17 and WTI at $62.50, reflecting a 0.21% increase on the day [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to concerns over a potential OPEC+ production increase and mixed signals from U.S. crude inventory data [2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - Brent and WTI experienced a sharp selloff earlier in the week, with both benchmarks falling over three percent on Monday, marking the steepest daily losses since August 1 [2] - The decline continued on Tuesday, with both benchmarks shedding at least another one and a half percent, indicating market anxiety regarding OPEC+ production decisions [2] Group 2: Inventory Data - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in U.S. crude inventories by 3.67 million barrels for the week ending September 26, suggesting tighter supply conditions [3] - However, gasoline stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by 3 million barrels, presenting a mixed supply picture [3] Group 3: OPEC+ Discussions - OPEC+ is reportedly considering a production hike of up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, which is three times the increase seen in October, with Saudi Arabia advocating for a larger increase to enhance its market share [4] - OPEC has expressed unease regarding the reports of a 500,000 bpd increase, labeling them as "misleading," which underscores the uncertainty in the group's decision-making process [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming EIA inventory data, which may confirm the API's reported drawdown and provide short-term support for prices [5] - The near-term direction of oil prices is expected to depend heavily on inventory trends and signals from OPEC+ ahead of its next ministerial meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].