Market Trend - Federal Reserve (Powell) is expected to cut interest rates again [1] - Risk assets are predicted to experience significant growth [1] Cryptocurrency - Ethereum ($ETH) is projected to reach $10,000 per unit [1]

Geopolitical Context - Geopolitical tensions are escalating in Venezuela, particularly due to U.S. military actions against vessels linked to drug trafficking [1][2] - The U.S. has conducted two strikes on Venezuelan boats, resulting in casualties, with the latest strike killing three individuals [1][2] Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin's price has shown minimal reaction to the geopolitical news, currently trading at $115,018, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the past day but a 2.7% decrease compared to the previous month [2] - Analysts from Bitunix have advised traders to monitor the situation in Venezuela closely, as further escalation could impact Bitcoin's performance [3] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - There is anticipation surrounding the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, with a majority of market participants expecting a 25-basis point cut [5] - The sentiment for a larger 50-basis point cut has significantly decreased, dropping from 30% to 7.4% among market participants [5] Market Volatility Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been rising, indicating increased market uncertainty, with a 1.69% increase over the past five days [6] - The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE Index) has also risen by 4.79% since the previous day's close, reflecting heightened volatility in response to geopolitical events [7]

Macroeconomic Outlook - The analysis suggests the economy is in a late phase, evidenced by central banks starting to ease, deteriorating job numbers, and declining short-term yields with topping long-term yields [1] - The real economy is facing challenges, with 156% of the US population struggling to put food on the table, impacted by high rates and inflation [1][5] - Liquidity cannot stem the tide of a rolling-over real economy, distinguishing the current situation from previous stimulus efforts [1] - The analyst anticipates non-farm payrolls will worsen, leading to a stock market top and a potential Bitcoin surge to $160,000, followed by a market correction [1][6] Market Bubbles and Valuations - The stock market is in a blowoff top, with market capitalization at 216% of GDP, exceeding levels seen in 2007 (109%), 2000 (136%), and 1929 (89%) [2] - The current bubble encompasses both tech stocks and the housing market, resembling a combination of the 2000 and 2007 crises [4] - Despite arguments about improved company efficiency and productivity, current valuations are historically high relative to the economy [3] Monetary Policy and Inflation - Central banks' attempts to stimulate the economy through monetary easing are likely to be ineffective due to reintroduced inflation and a struggling consumer [2][7] - The era of easy monetary policy is ending, with the Fed unable to sustain the real economy's downturn [2] - A deflationary phase is expected in the short term, followed by a resurgence of inflation due to continued stimulus efforts [7] Investment Strategy - The analysis suggests studying investment strategies from the 1940s to navigate the coming market shakeout [8] - Gold is recommended as a long-term investment, although it may experience a pullback during the deflationary bust [16][17] - Caution is advised regarding crypto investments, with a potential secular top in Bitcoin and a subsequent crash [6][7][19] - A strong dollar is anticipated during the deflationary phase, followed by a shift towards commodities, gold, and silver during stagflation [22]

Market Outlook - FED is expected to cut rates in 3 days [1] - Risk assets are predicted to surge [1] Cryptocurrency - $ETH is projected to reach $10,000 [1]

Labor Market Analysis - The U S labor market is deteriorating [1] - Rate cuts are coming [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell may actually be "Too Late" [1] Investment Strategy - Risk assets will explode [1]

Today is the biggest macro day of the month.🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate release:- Weak jobs + higher unemployment → Risk assets pump (crypto & stocks)- Strong jobs report → Fed likely delays cutsGET READY FOR VOLATILITY! https://t.co/xBfN3V1BT7 ...

Market Trends - IWM (Low Cap Stocks) vs GOLD is reversing, indicating a shift in risk behavior [1] - Investors are moving into higher-risk assets [1] Investment Strategy Implications - Last time this happened, Bitcoin dominance plunged and altcoins exploded, suggesting potential investment opportunities in altcoins [1]

Monetary Policy - 美联储主席鲍威尔立场偏鸽派 [1] - 预计未来将降息 [1] Market Impact - 利好风险资产 [1] - 以太坊价格预计将大幅上涨 [1]

Market Trends - Market experienced a tumble followed by a rise, leading to a rush into risky assets [1] - Risky assets include meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and shares of smaller companies yet to achieve profitability [1]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]