The bill, the reconciliation bill is boosting the economy and immigration is slowing it down. And then the effects of the tariff are both raising inflation and slowing down the economy. Both businesses and households facing the drag from the tariffs.>> I mean, I think about trying to compute all of these um all of these numbers with the many many moving pieces that you have. It's pretty complex situation. Um and I would I would imagine it changes on a pretty daily basis.But let's focus on on population grow ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Trade War Dynamics**: The current state of the US-China trade war is under scrutiny, with the effective tariff rate at approximately 9%, significantly lower than the announced rates of around 18% [1][2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Effective Tariff Rate Analysis**: The realized effective tariff rate is nearly half of the theoretical headline rate, primarily due to carveouts and exemptions [2][12]. - **Transshipment Impact**: An estimated USD 45 billion in transshipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand has contributed to a reduction in the effective tariff rate by at least 1% [3][15][24]. - **Goods Inflation Factors**: The muted goods inflation is attributed to transshipments, carveouts, inventory stockpiling, and lower US profit margins [4][31]. - **Healthcare Sector Risks**: The healthcare sector has accounted for over 60% of cumulative payroll growth since December 2022, raising concerns about potential labor market weaknesses [5][37]. Additional Important Content - **Labor Market Indicators**: Recent labor market indicators show a slowdown, with non-farm payrolls (NFP) excluding healthcare being negative for three of the last four months [5][40]. - **Canadian Economic Outlook**: The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut rates due to a weakening labor market and softening growth, with forecasts suggesting three more cuts this year [52]. - **Japanese Political Landscape**: The upcoming LDP election in Japan is likely to maintain the status quo, with potential dovish risks if certain candidates win [43][46]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a complex interplay of factors affecting the US economy, particularly in relation to trade policies, labor market dynamics, and sector-specific risks. The healthcare sector's performance is critical to watch as it may signal broader economic trends. The Canadian and Japanese markets also present unique challenges and opportunities in the current economic climate.

Senator, I want to talk to you about Russia, which I know you've been very focused on. This week, NATO planes, as you well know, shot down Russian drones in Polish airspace. On Saturday, Romania scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone entered its airspace.You said this week, quote, "We've tried the red carpet approach. It ain't working." Is it time for President Trump to directly punish Putin. >> No. It is time for Europe to get behind President Trump to punish Putin's customers.Putin has been sanction ...

Industry Overview - The retail industry is experiencing a "barbell" effect, with significant growth at both the high-end and low-end, while the middle segment, exemplified by Target Corp., is being squeezed out [1] - Discount retailers like TJX Companies are reporting record revenues and stock gains, while luxury brands such as ULTA Beauty and Kate Spade are also seeing strong sales and maintaining healthy margins [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly seeking value, whether through discounted products or durable luxury items, leading to a K-shaped spending pattern that favors affluent households [2] Company Performance: Williams-Sonoma - Williams-Sonoma has shown resilience against tariff impacts, managing to maintain margins through inventory management and cost reductions [4][5] - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) and revenue that exceeded analyst expectations, with a 3.7% year-over-year growth in comparable sales and an increase in full-year revenue guidance to 2%-5% [7] - The stock has increased by over 30% in the last three months, indicating strong business performance [8] Company Performance: Ralph Lauren - Ralph Lauren has demonstrated resilience in the retail sector, with a 13.7% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.72 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, and an increase in full-year guidance despite inflation concerns [11] - The stock has risen more than 35% year-to-date, supported by strong earnings and a 160-basis-point gross margin increase [10] Company Performance: Tapestry Inc. - Tapestry, which includes brands like Kate Spade and Coach, reported a record revenue of $7 billion for FY 2025, driven by double-digit growth from the Coach brand [15] - The company achieved 8.3% year-over-year growth in revenue for fiscal Q4 2025, with EPS of $1.02, both surpassing analyst projections [17]

India is looking for alternative destinations to cushion the impact of a 50% tariff slapped by President Donald Trump on exports of goods from the South Asian country https://t.co/7ejcCsnaXl ...

Five things to watch uh or to know ahead of the opening bell. Lawyers for President Trump asking a federal appeals court to let his bid to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook take effect before next week's rate setting meeting. Department of Justice officials want the court to rule by Monday afternoon.Meanwhile, a report from our own Steve Leeman says that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant met with several candidates to be the next Fed chair. He's met with him in recent days. Among them, former Fed official Larry Li ...

Economic Indicators - The core PCE number, which the Fed focuses on, is expected to remain close to 3%, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Recent inflation data suggests that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but an additional rate cut this year has been added, increasing the total expectation to three cuts [7] Labor Market - There is clear evidence of a weakening labor market, with an ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, which could lead to downward pressure on wages and alleviate inflation concerns in the future [5][4] Market Sentiment - Despite inflation concerns, bullish sentiment in the market is likely to continue, supported by new all-time highs in both the US and overseas markets [6][8] - Investors appear to be looking for reasons to sell stocks, but the current conditions may continue to support and propel stock prices [8] Consumer Impact - The impact of economic conditions on working-class consumers in Q4 is critical, with wealth gains primarily accruing to upper-income consumers rather than lower-income ones [9][10] - Price pressures may persist into the holiday shopping season due to tighter inventories, influenced by tariffs [11] Home Furnishings Sector - The home furnishings subindustry, including companies like Wayfair and RH, has performed strongly, driven by lower rates and increased consumer spending on home upgrades [12]

You put it all together, what's the data telling us about the state of the economy. Joining us now is Michael Foli, chief US economist at JP Morgan, and Sam Stovall, CFR research chief investment strategist. Uh guys, welcome.Mike, how do you read uh this CPI and the uh market's reaction to it. Wonder if we're being uh perhaps overly sanguin about it, whereas perhaps in in uh April, the other direction. Yeah, it's going in the wrong direction.That's for sure. I do think we're seeing some tariff price pass th ...

US tariff revenue hit a new monthly record in August, reflecting President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, though that still left the federal government with the third-biggest deficit on record so far this fiscal year https://t.co/AtZwlu1oyu ...

Good morning. The latest headlines:Half-Staff: The fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has shocked the nation. There are fears of growing political violence across America, while gun stocks were pulled higher late Wednesday afternoon.Economic Watch: U.S. stocks extended a winning streak after the August wholesale inflation report unexpectedly declined in both headline and core figures. Traders will be watching the CPI today and what it might mean for the Federal Reserve.Tariffs: Not jus ...