Market Outlook - Oppenheimer maintains a bullish outlook, reinstating the S&P year-end target of 7,100, the highest on the street [1] - The market likes revenue growth and earnings growth [5][10] - The market will likely react negatively to potential geopolitical risks [4] Economic Factors - Recent jobs numbers were volatile, with revisions and a shortfall, but such fluctuations are common [3] - Progress on trade negotiations has reduced market uncertainty [1] - Tariffs are acknowledged as difficult to digest, highlighting the need for fairer global trade [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, potentially by 25 to 50 basis points (025% to 050%), with further cuts anticipated later in the year [9][10] Company Strategy - Many companies have diversified their supply chains, especially after COVID-19, to countries with better tariff deals [8] - Workarounds and carveouts exist to mitigate the impact of tariffs [9] Sentiment and Data - Soft data sentiment has reverted to a more positive outlook [11] - Markets are influenced by both math and emotion, suggesting cooler heads should prevail [11][12]

The S&P 500 will close out the year at a new record high. That's according to Wall Street's biggest bull. It's John Stalus of Oppenheimer.He's boosting his year-end target for the benchmark index to 7,100, citing progress on trade negotiations, removing lingering uncertainty for investors. Joining us now, the man behind that call, John Stalus, Oenheimer, chief market strategist. John, it's great to see you.Julie, great to be on the show. Always great to be working with you. Oh, I appreciate that.So, so tell ...

Trade & Tariff Uncertainty - The removal of "uncertainty has diminished" from the statement indicates that uncertainty has not decreased further since the last meeting [1][2] - Trade negotiations remain dynamic, and the situation is still far from settled [4] - While more information is being gathered, the process is ongoing with much more to come [4][5] - Estimates of effective tariff levels are not fluctuating significantly at this point [4] Policy & Economic Impact - The impact of recent trade deals and tariff rates on policy changes is still being evaluated [1][3] - The focus is on observing the economic effects of these deals [1][3]

Trade negotiations with China set to resume this morning. Joining us now uh from Stockholm, US trade rep Jameson Greer. Um Mr.. Ambassador, thank you uh for joining us this morning. Of course. Great to be here again.How are you. Great. Do you want to look backwards or forward before we I mean we definitely want to talk about China, but uh we just had our own uh discussion about whether the the Japan deal, the EU deal, uh whether they were net positives for both countries, net negatives, whether someone wins ...

But the opening up of a country is very important to us. We have numerous countries that have opened their doors, just made some incredible uh transactions. But we're going to have a very very simple tariff for some of the countries.You have so many countries you can't negotiate deals with everyone. So we'll have a straight simple tariff of anywhere between 15 and 50%. a couple we have 50 because we haven't been getting along with those countries too well.So we just say let's pay 50 and uh that's the way it ...

Trade Negotiations & Tariffs - The US and China are likely to extend President Trump's trade deadline, originally set to expire on August 12th [1] - President Trump has stated that countries without a deal by August 1st will revert to the April 2nd reciprocal trade tariff level, potentially increasing pressure during negotiations [3] - Regarding China, the US had peaked at 145 tariff level, while China peaked at 125; current tariffs stand at 30% from the US on China and 10% from China on the US [7] - The US is moving into a new phase with China, aiming to balance the economic relationship [8] Inflation & Consumer Impact - The Treasury Secretary believes manufacturers and exporters are absorbing a substantial portion of the tariffs, impacting their profit margins [14][15] - The Treasury Secretary is confident that overall inflation numbers will remain benign and consumers will not see higher prices due to tariffs [17] - Retailers are also absorbing some of the tariff costs, particularly those with increased margins during COVID [15] Federal Reserve - President Trump has repeatedly stated he will not fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9] - Individuals in public service should expect pressure from various sources [11]

Taiwan’s trade negotiators have arrived in the US for tariff talks to clinch a deal with President Donald Trump’s team, according to a person familiar with the matter https://t.co/UqPUYKuC0d ...

Trade Negotiations & Deadlines - Trade negotiations require substantial time, making simultaneous negotiations with numerous countries challenging due to limited bandwidth [1] - The August 1st deadline is approaching, but trading partners anticipate potential extensions despite the president's statements [2] Tariff Impact & Mitigation - Price increases due to tariffs are expected to become noticeable in supermarkets and retail stores, particularly for consumer goods [3] - Companies have prepared for tariffs by building up inventories, but price hikes are imminent [3] - Exemptions for large product categories from tariffs are possible, which would lessen the overall impact [4] Ongoing Tariff Payments - Countries involved in trade negotiations are currently paying tariffs [2]

Japan’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa may come under renewed pressure in the coming days as he faces the risk of missing out on talks with the two key US officials entrusted with trade negotiations when they visit Osaka https://t.co/nhSls5zIoP ...

So, it's letters, letters, letters day. So, we have seven new letters today from President Trump to a variety of trading partners. He's promising more either later this afternoon or coming tomorrow morning.A big one that he said this afternoon was going to drop soon as Brazil. So, that that's a major trading partner. But what we have so far are threats of 20 to 30% tariffs on a range of countries from Algeria to Muldova that would take effect on August 1st.Um, and and this goes this is on top of 14 letters ...